May 2014 Boards forecast contest

Table of entries May 2014 forecast contest


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN __ PRC _ SUN __ Rain 11th (Ballyhaise)

The Zohan ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 __+1.0 _ 060 _ 087 ____ 0.0
Robxxx7 ________________14.5 _ 21.4 __+3.1 _ 085 _ 098 ____ 2.1
Joe Public ____ (-5) ______ 12.9 _ 24.9 _ --1.9 _ 079 _ 129 ____ 0.0
M.T. Cranium ____________12.7 _ 25.5 _ --0.4 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 2.0
lostinashford ____________ 12.3 _ 20.4 _ --0.2 _ 106 _ 089 ____ 3.6
dacogawa _______________ 12.2 _ 26.0 __+0.3 _ 082 _ 122 ____ 0.5
sunflower3 ______________ 12.1 _ 20.4 __+2.8 _ 090 _ 111 ____ 0.0
kindredspirit _____________ 12.0 _ 22.5 _ --0.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 4.0
Jpmarn _________________ 11.9 _ 22.2 __+1.1 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 3.2
Bsal ____________________11.8 _ 22.9 _ --1.5 _ 101 _ 097 ____ 7.0
200motels __ (-20) _______ 11.8 _ 26.8 __+2.9 _ 157 _ 088 ___ 11.0
waterways __ (-15) _______ 11.8 _ 24.8 _ --1.0 _ 115 _ 085 ____ 6.2
okla _______ (-5) _________11.7 _ 21.6 __+2.1 _085 _ 116 ____ 1.5
rikand __________________ 11.6 _ 22.5 __+0.1 _ 080 _ 130 ____ 0.2

Con Sensus ______________11.6 _ 22.5 __ +0.6 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 0.7

Yoghurt87 _______________11.5 _ 23.7 _ --0.5 _ 084 _ 106 ____ 0.9
mickger844posts _________ 11.5 _ 23.0 __+3.1 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 0.0
Tae laidir _______________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __+3.3 _ 123 _ 095 ____ 6.0
dasa29 _________________ 11.5 _ 22.0 _ --0.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 1.0
Danno __________________11.4 _ 23.7 __+1.2 _ 080 _ 130 ____ 0.7
John mac _______________ 11.3 _ 26.4 __+1.2 _ 098 _ 110 ____ 0.1
talkabout ___ (-5) ________ 11.3 _ 22.9 __+1.3 _ 085 _ 100 ____ 0.0
DOCARCH ___ (-5) ________ 11.3 _ 21.1 _ --1.3 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 0.0
traecy1 _________________ 11.2 _ 23.5 __+3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.5
omicron _________________11.0 _ 21.0 _ --0.2 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 0.0
Harps __________________ 10.6 _ 22.6 __+1.6 _ 085 _ 075 ____ 0.0
pauldry _________________ 10.5 _ 22.0 __+0.2 _ 109 _ 089 ____ 5.4
rameire _________________ 10.5 _ 20.5 _ --0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 3.6
delw _____________________9.8 _ 19.0 __+3.0 _ 097 _ 110 ____ 5.0

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The consensus calls for a fairly average month with perhaps a slight bias towards warmth, sun and dry conditions although very slight on average, and the outlook for rain on the 11th seems to be divided between a dry camp of about one third of the entries and a wetter camp of another third with some in between expecting slight amounts. Let's hope that whoever is right, the rain doesn't interfere with the event or any other (10th-11th) weekend plans.

Will edit in any further entries and adjust consensus.

Ballyhaise has probably had at least 5 mm rain since midnight, I have seen most of the hourly reports overnight. So very few guesses will turn out too high, that's known.

And so the three closest forecasts (waterways 6.2, Tae laidir 6.0, Bsal 7.0) will get the ten points, after that, I will go down in groups of three so that Pauldry, traecy1 and delw have nine points, then lostinashford, kindredspirit and rameire have eight. At seven points will be Jpmarn, Robxx7, MTC and 200motels as I am applying a slightly elastic high-side error for the one forecast that went significantly over. From there on, I will go with pairs at 6 (okla, dasa29), 5 (Yoghurt87, danno also Con Sensus), 4 (dacogawa, rikand) and 3 for Johnmac. The zero forecasts will get 2 points.

It's largely guesswork with a bit of inspired pattern recognition -- the hard part is to guess what the second half of a month will be like, I think most of the more experienced people in the contest would tend to issue similar forecasts for the first half based on guidance but as you can see from this bonus question, guidance for ten days or more is fairly vague on details. This is very much of an evolving field where large numbers of people have made slight advances, and claims of larger advances seem to fail the test of objective numerical validation, unless your name is Con Sensus, then you've got something.

Update after days 8 to 14 ...

IMT is now 11.0 C

PRC is 167% after a wet week (other than Cork) with an average of 198%

SUN now very much estimated due to sparse data (in Ag Report) around 60% after a somewhat better week with perhaps 75-80 per cent.

MAX a work in progress, MIN has to be quite high so far, can recall some 5s.

Had a look back and found 4.0 at Knock to be the lowest, 4.4 at Mullingar.

19.9 at Phoenix Park on Friday.

Update for the end of third week of May ...

IMT has reached 11.5 C after a week that averaged 12.6 C.

PRC has held almost steady at 163% after another rather wet week for most away from parts of the south coast (week at 155%).

SUN has improved somewhat to near 75% after a full report for last week that saw an average of 101%.

Extremes as far as we know are 20.4 and 3.1 C.

Con might not do so well this month, could be some mercy rule applications forthcoming especially on rainfall.

That would be good from my point of view, can we also have the 29th or 30th be the coldest?

Meanwhile, 1.7 C at Dublin (A) on Tuesday for a new minimum. Likely to have a new MAX from today with some hourly obs as high as 21 so far. Whatever is reported, as Joe says above, could be eclipsed on Saturday.