General QF build-up (excluding Irl v Arg)

total former · 14-10-2015 12:13PM #1

Worth a thread?

Saturday 17/10/2015:
South Africa v Wales - 1600 - Twickenham - Wayne Barnes
New Zealand v France - 2000 - Cardiff - Nigel Owens

Sunday 18/10/2015:
Ireland v Argentina - 1300 - Cardiff - Jerome Garces
Australia v Scotland - 1600 - Twickenham - Craig Joubert

So it's north v south in all four matches, with Ireland representing the best chance at NH representation in the semis.

South Africa are first out of the blocks naming their team. Victor Matfield fails to make it back to fitness in time:

Willie le Roux; JP Pietersen, Jesse Kriel, Damien de Allende, Bryan Habana; Handre Pollard, Fourie du Preez (capt).
Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Frans Malherbe, Lodewyk de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Schalk Burger, Duane Vermeulen, Francois Louw.

Replacements: Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane, Jannie du Plessis, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Willem Alberts, Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie, Jan Serfontein

Wales are going to struggle to put a competitive XV together, most likely Tyler Morgan will come back in at 13 with North back to the wing and Anscombe continuing at full-back after a lacklustre showing against Australia.

The real underdogs are the Scots, even more so after losing Ross Ford and Jonny Gray to suspension. Gray in particular is a massive loss.

Predicted SF line-up:
South Africa vs NZ
Australia v Ireland

Ed The Equalizer · 14-10-2015 12:22PM

Really looking forward to S.A. - Wales, hopefully Wales will give it a right go.

Hard to see past your predicted QFs, but I suspect it might be Australia and then an upset in one of the other 3 matches.

14-10-2015 12:54PM

Scotland by 5 points.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/17639378

stadedublinois · 14-10-2015 01:38PM

L'Équipe is saying that Parra, Dumoulin and Le Roux will start instead of Tilous-Borde, Chouly and Bastareaud.

14-10-2015 01:44PM

stadedublinois wrote: »

L'Équipe is saying that Parra, Dumoulin and Le Roux will start instead of Tilous-Borde, Chouly and Bastareaud.

Has PSA lost the dressing room! Is there another post pool stage revolution!

As much as I'd love to see France turn up and do something spectacular this weekend, I think the reality is that they just aren't that great anymore.

4 Very lacklustre years despite having a quality squad just can't be undone at the last minute. They had no leadership against us in the closing stages last week.

Still could be a good game, but I expect NZ to embarrass them if I'm honest.

Can't see anything other than SA, NZ and Aus going through. Ireland and Argentina is close enough to a toss up that it's not worth calling.

stadedublinois · 14-10-2015 01:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Has PSA lost the dressing room! Is there another post pool stage revolution!

Not sure he ever had it.

total former · 14-10-2015 01:51PM

stadedublinois wrote: »

L'Équipe is saying that Parra, Dumoulin and Le Roux will start instead of Tilous-Borde, Chouly and Bastareaud.

I would agree with all those changes. Dumoulin especially.

Tox56 · 14-10-2015 01:51PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Has PSA lost the dressing room! Is there another post pool stage revolution!

As much as I'd love to see France turn up and do something spectacular this weekend, I think the reality is that they just aren't that great anymore.

4 Very lacklustre years despite having a quality squad just can't be undone at the last minute. They had no leadership against us in the closing stages last week.

Still could be a good game, but I expect NZ to embarrass them if I'm honest.

Can't see anything other than SA, NZ and Aus going through. Ireland and Argentina is close enough to a toss up that it's not worth calling.

France's squad is pretty much just 'ok' by the standards of the best international teams. Everyone puts them on a pedastal and laments how their great talent is being wasted by a useless coach, but the team that lined out against us was pretty average really

Flipper22 · 14-10-2015 01:55PM

Four years later and we still underestimate the welsh. Despite the injuries, I'm not sure where the Boks will do them damage other than through brute force. Stand up to that and I think they have the belief and resilience to get the win.

14-10-2015 02:02PM

Flipper22 wrote: »

Four years later and we still underestimate the welsh. Despite the injuries, I'm not sure where the Boks will do them damage other than through brute force. Stand up to that and I think they have the belief and resilience to get the win.

South Africa were shocking against Argentina a few months ago, and had no answers against Japan when it started to look like a game.

I think however that they are creeping up on a bit of form, albeit against poor teams.

Wales fully fit I think would put them away, but they can't beat SA with 10 man rugby, and they just don't have the bench to get them over the line.

It should make for a fascinating game with both teams recent history, form and injuries.

All told it's a great weekend of rugby. Stoked.

shrapnel222 · 14-10-2015 02:09PM

stadedublinois wrote: »

L'Équipe is saying that Parra, Dumoulin and Le Roux will start instead of Tilous-Borde, Chouly and Bastareaud.

i'd love to see a good bit of change and something which is slightly more attack minded

9 Parra 10 Michalak

Nyanga at 7

guitoune and grosso on the wings and Dulin at fullback

RedemptionZ · 14-10-2015 03:00PM

Rugby is far too professional nowadays for France to automatically have that bit of magic in them simply because they wear a French jersey. People would've said the same about Brazil in soccer, now look at them. Teams are too well coached and any athletic gaps that may have been present before are virtually gone with any of the top teams. They've fecked up their league and gone the way of the EPL in soccer whereby foreigners are preventing French youth from getting a chance to develop. If NZ don't win, it's on them, this is a really mediocre French team.

Predicting South Africa to beat a courageous Welsh performance.

Australia to comfortably beat Scotland.

Pudsy33 · 14-10-2015 03:13PM

I think New Zealand vs France will be closer than some expect, but I predict NZ to win by a score.

Wales vs South Africa will be hard fought and very tight but I suspect South Africa will shade it considering Wales' mounting injury concerns.

Australia vs Scotland could be an absolute hammering.

.ak · 14-10-2015 04:07PM

I have a feeling France will do well. I think they were too regimented against us, but now the pressure is on the favourites NZ, France can play without pressure and I think there'll be a few tries for each side...

14-10-2015 04:50PM

.ak wrote: »

I have a feeling France will do well. I think they were too regimented against us, but now the pressure is on the favourites NZ, France can play without pressure and I think there'll be a few tries for each side...

Can you imagine if France won. The drama would be insane, it would be whatever goes on top of the cherry which is on top of the icing of this cake of a world cup which I'm having and eating.

PTH2009 · 14-10-2015 04:56PM

South Africa by 3
New Zealand by 10
Argentina by 2
Austraila by 17

Semis will be

South Africa vs New Zealand
Argentina vs Austraila

might as well rename it the Rugby Championship World Cup 2015

sydthebeat · 14-10-2015 04:57PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

South Africa by 3
New Zealand by 10
Argentina by 2
Austraila by 17

Semis will be

South Africa vs New Zealand
Argentina vs Austraila

might as well rename it the Rugby Championship World Cup 2015

God, you(r posts) are miserable

14-10-2015 05:02PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

South Africa by 3
New Zealand by 10
Argentina by 2
Austraila by 17

Semis will be

South Africa vs New Zealand
Argentina vs Austraila

might as well rename it the Rugby Championship World Cup 2015

Please never stop. The opposite keeps happening, you are pleasing the Mocker god. Keep up the good work.

PTH2009 · 14-10-2015 05:02PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

God, you(r posts) are miserable

yeah would love to be proved wrong. heart says Ireland but my head says Argentina.

Working at 4pm sunday so hopefully i will be looking to book off the next sunday for the semi final.

Pudsy33 · 14-10-2015 05:06PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

South Africa by 3
New Zealand by 10
Argentina by 2
Austraila by 17

Semis will be

South Africa vs New Zealand
Argentina vs Austraila

might as well rename it the Rugby Championship World Cup 2015

I've seen a lot of people come into the build up thread, and the France game threads likewise, and predict Ireland's demise. I've yet to see anything other then "they had a good half against New Zealand", whereas I've seen plenty of posts detailed and reasoned post about why Ireland have the edge. I'd be genuinely curious to know why you think Argentina will win.

molloyjh · 14-10-2015 05:15PM

If we said prior to the RWC that this would be the QFs we'd have all been delighted. NH vs SH, only one game not hugely competitive (Scotland) and pretty much the top 8 there (again excluding Scotland). I just fear that France haven't improved as much as we might have hoped and Wales have too many injuries. Hell even we potentially have too many injuries now. It's starting to look a bit like an uphill battle for the NH sides. And that is a bad thing for the game here. Imagine an all SH final 4!?

I don't know about anyone else but I'll be hoping at least 2 of us make it through.

wp_rathead · 14-10-2015 05:24PM

The P in PTH2009 must stand for Pessimistic going by his post history in this rugby forum

PTH2009 · 14-10-2015 05:30PM

Pudsy33 wrote: »

I've seen a lot of people come into the build up thread, and the France game threads likewise, and predict Ireland's demise. I've yet to see anything other then "they had a good half against New Zealand", whereas I've seen plenty of posts detailed and reasoned post about why Ireland have the edge. I'd be genuinely curious to know why you think Argentina will win.

in 2011 everyone was on a buzz because we topped our group and thought we just had to show up against wales in the quarter final but things turned bad

Argentina have improved a lot since joining SANZAR and have no fear of us and they will know where down 3 top players. they have won 3 of there 4 pool matches fairly handy and scared the all blacks

pickarooney · 14-10-2015 05:54PM

Damien Chouly is a complete waste of a France Jersey. Nyanga needs to play or Ouedraogo if they insist on a specialist lineout jumper in the third row.
Tillous-Borde is such a limited player and was embarrassed by Ireland. France's problems really begin at 9 and Parra's form is poor. PSA absolutely bolloxed up the scrum half selection for four years and it will be their undoing. Michalak is unlikely to make that much of a difference but apart from an overrated Trinh-Duc there was precious little alternative. Tales is such a dull player I can't fathom how he's playing international rugby. Michalak at 9 and Parra at 10??

And they've no wingers worth a curse. Guitone is the only one to have shown any style. I'd have him in instead of the out of place Dulin. When you think of all the Fijians in the top 14 who didn't even make the tournament...
Fofana and Fickou in the centre.

They're still getting hockeyed but if they go straight for NZ from the kick off and unsettle them they might make a game of it.

SA and Oz to win comfortably

14-10-2015 05:56PM

I will be extremely disappointed if the All Black's don't get through, mainly because this will mean they have had another lacklustre performance.
As Laurie Mains said this week, France just don't have that x factor at the moment. I really can't see them breaking a game apart with moments of individual brilliance.

stadedublinois · 14-10-2015 06:21PM

pickarooney wrote: »

Damien Chouly is a complete waste of a France Jersey. Nyanga needs to play or Ouedraogo if they insist on a specialist lineout jumper in the third row.
Tillous-Borde is such a limited player and was embarrassed by Ireland. France's problems really begin at 9 and Parra's form is poor. PSA absolutely bolloxed up the scrum half selection for four years and it will be their undoing. Michalak is unlikely to make that much of a difference but apart from an overrated Trinh-Duc there was precious little alternative. Tales is such a dull player I can't fathom how he's playing international rugby. Michalak at 9 and Parra at 10??

And they've no wingers worth a curse. Guitone is the only one to have shown any style. I'd have him in instead of the out of place Dulin. When you think of all the Fijians in the top 14 who didn't even make the tournament...
Fofana and Fickou in the centre.

They're still getting hockeyed but if they go straight for NZ from the kick off and unsettle them they might make a game of it.

SA and Oz to win comfortably

The out-half selection was the biggest issue here. I reckon Talès is, at best the 5th best 10 in France behind FTD, Lopez, Michalak and Plisson.

The centres have been an issue for most of the last 4 years. Individually Fofana and Bastareaud are probably our best, but they don't work well together. I would've had Mermoz in the squad in front of Fickou and Dumoulin (and Lamerat)

Wing wasn't much of an issue until Huget got injured, but I would've had Médard in the squad. Guitoune seems to have completely lost PSA's confidence.

aimee1 · 14-10-2015 07:42PM

http://www.rugbyworld.com/countries/france-countries/world-cup-2015-time-for-a-france-revolution-51018

captbarnacles · 14-10-2015 07:46PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

in 2011 everyone was on a buzz because we topped our group and thought we just had to show up against wales in the quarter final but things turned bad

Argentina have improved a lot since joining SANZAR and have no fear of us and they will know where down 3 top players. they have won 3 of there 4 pool matches fairly handy and scared the all blacks

From being a doubter I'm now a fully converted believer. We play with that intensity again even the AB's will struggle to beat us. I don't think 2011 will happen again because Joe Schmidt.

CurryFlavoured · 14-10-2015 07:53PM

I think Arg come into this game perfectly (bar Bosch), they're rested, confident and playing really well, while we're battered and missing key men. Argentina are a strong side and this is set up perfectly for an upset, but there's something different about Ireland under Schmidt so I'm hopeful we'll get the win. I think its close to a 50/50 game though.

captbarnacles · 14-10-2015 08:02PM

Basil3 wrote: »

I will be extremely disappointed if the All Black's don't get through, mainly because this will mean they have had another lacklustre performance.
As Laurie Mains said this week, France just don't have that x factor at the moment. I really can't see them breaking a game apart with moments of individual brilliance.

Defintely don't have the x factor but an incredibly committed defensive performance like the RWC final they do have in them.

Backstreet Moyes · 14-10-2015 09:29PM

wp_rathead wrote: »

The P in PTH2009 must stand for Pessimistic going by his post history in this rugby forum

Don't worry it's also in the Soccer forum and Waterford GAA forum. He predicts defeat for every game for the team he supports.

Must be some sort of backward jinx method, it's worked well this year so no point complaining.

Kiwi_knock · 14-10-2015 09:38PM

Folau and Pocock both sat out training today, but Australia are still planning on playing them against Scotland. Cheika could do with resting both of them ahead of tougher matches, Beale and McCalman aren't bad replacements to call upon. Folau was obviously injured playing Scotland so I don't see why Cheika wants to aggravate the injury. Playing both of them when they aren't fully fit has implications for a potential semi final with Ireland.

philstar · 14-10-2015 09:49PM

anyone give scotland a chance???

lologram · 14-10-2015 09:53PM

philstar wrote: »

anyone give scotland a chance???

Nope

14-10-2015 09:57PM

philstar wrote: »

anyone give scotland a chance???

It's the knock out stages of the world cup, there is always a chance. Honestly however, I don't think Scotland can win, Australia would need to lose and to achieve that I think would require some kind of force majeure such as a squad wide sickness or a series of freak injuries on the day.

If Australia picked up a red early that might be enough, but realistically Scotland haven't shown anything in many many years to indicate they have the beating of a team the quality of Australia's.

I thought Scotland might have turned a corner this time last year and figured they might kick on in the six nations, but instead they look like a team that has no idea how to win games.

Honestly, If Japan had had an extra two days to recover I'd say Scotland wouldn't even be in the quarters.

14-10-2015 10:31PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's the knock out stages of the world cup, there is always a chance. Honestly however, I don't think Scotland can win, Australia would need to lose and to achieve that I think would require some kind of force majeure such as a squad wide sickness or a series of freak injuries on the day.

If Australia picked up a red early that might be enough, but realistically Scotland haven't shown anything in many many years to indicate they have the beating of a team the quality of Australia's.

I thought Scotland might have turned a corner this time last year and figured they might kick on in the six nations, but instead they look like a team that has no idea how to win games.

Honestly, If Japan had had an extra two days to recover I'd say Scotland wouldn't even be in the quarters.

I miss Japan already can we swap them in anyway

Muahahaha · 14-10-2015 11:04PM

molloyjh wrote: »

I don't know about anyone else but I'll be hoping at least 2 of us make it through.

Likewise. The best possible results this weekend are for a heroic Welsh performance to dump out SA and the French taking care of the All Blacks. If those two events happened Ireland would be in a really good position to kick on and really try to win this WC, albeit we would have to beat the Aussies to do so. Strategically I think we have to be hoping for southern hemisphere teams to fall this weekend, there's not a chance of Australia falling to Scotland but the Welsh have the potential to upset SA, the French less so on the ABs but if they can rattle them the ABs always have the potential to implode. It's wishful thinking I know but it would do our chances of winning the WC no end of good IMO.

Bridge93 · 14-10-2015 11:23PM

Up until the suspensions I gave Scotland as good a chance of beating Oz as France have of beating NZ. Now admittedly that's still next to no chance but losing two of their key players will be too much.

I see Wales getting steamrolled. SA are very well rested and at full strength whereas Wales have had 3 very tough games and a hospital worth of injuries.

postitnote · 15-10-2015 06:39AM

When i think of Scotland this weekend, I think of Homer when he's fighting Drederick Tatum.

Vern has a last chat with Scotland.

Vern: All right, Scotland, I'm not gonna lie to you. There's a good
chance you can beat Australia. But you gotta visualize how
you're gonna win, okay?
Scotland: Gotcha.
[dreams on about their victory]
Announcer: A congenital heart defect has apparently felled Australia moments
before they could step onto the pitch.

sydthebeat · 15-10-2015 06:45AM

philstar wrote: »

anyone give scotland a chance???

Yeah, PTH2009 reckons they'll win at a canter

TICKLE_ME_ELMO · 15-10-2015 08:12AM

Scotland are appealing the bans, confirmed this morning. At best they might get a reduction which would still see them miss the QF.

corny · 15-10-2015 08:20AM

Scotland won't win but i don't think they'll be embarrassed. Reckon they'll stay in touch most of the game.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO · 15-10-2015 08:26AM

Scotland's best chance is to hope Genia goes off in the first 5 minutes and Phipps has to try to keep it together for 75 minutes.

aimee1 · 15-10-2015 09:21AM

How are france going to cope without pape? He suffered a (1) brutal assault, (2) had serious breathing difficulties in the ireland game and had to leave the field - 72 minutes later - and now has (3) ongoing injuries as a result

(1) quoting the man himself
(2) says his team doctor
(3) says the JO who banned SoB.

15-10-2015 09:27AM

aimee1 wrote: »

How are france going to cope without pape? He suffered a (1) brutal assault, (2) had serious breathing difficulties in the ireland game and had to leave the field - 72 minutes later - and now has (3) ongoing injuries as a result

(1) quoting the man himself
(2) says his team doctor
(3) says the JO who banned SoB.

Not sure what point you're trying to make. They're just butthurt over a cheap shot.

France are pretty screwed with or without him, if your question was serious. I suspect you were just taking an opportunity to have a dig, however.

shrapnel222 · 15-10-2015 09:35AM

aimee1 wrote: »

How are france going to cope without pape? He suffered a (1) brutal assault, (2) had serious breathing difficulties in the ireland game and had to leave the field - 72 minutes later - and now has (3) ongoing injuries as a result

(1) quoting the man himself
(2) says his team doctor
(3) says the JO who banned SoB.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0MK7qz13bU

15-10-2015 09:36AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA6cnXFiE6I

Scotland will win.

shrapnel222 · 15-10-2015 09:37AM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA6cnXFiE6I

Scotland will win the national anthem battle

FYP

stadedublinois · 15-10-2015 10:18AM

stadedublinois wrote: »

L'Équipe is saying that Parra, Dumoulin and Le Roux will start instead of Tilous-Borde, Chouly and Bastareaud.

This has been confirmed. Szaraewski, Chouly, Nyanga and Kockott on the bench too.

15-10-2015 10:24AM

Basil3 wrote: »

Not sure what point you're trying to make. They're just butthurt over a cheap shot.

France are pretty screwed with or without him, if your question was serious. I suspect you were just taking an opportunity to have a dig, however.

I see what you did there.

techdiver · 15-10-2015 10:25AM

stadedublinois wrote: »

This has been confirmed. Szaraewski, Chouly, Nyanga and Kockott on the bench too.

I'm happy that PSA only decided to make those changes this week.

I was always terrified of what Parra could do, although he is not currently in the same form as in previous years.

General QF build-up (excluding Irl v Arg)

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