TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd · 02-03-2016 01:51PM

Text book elliot wave forming on the DAX 15 mins. Five waves. Impulse wave number 1 maybe?

Edit: sorry that should read corrective wave A maybe?

dasdog · 17-03-2016 09:34AM

Do the Fed know something we don't know about the wider global economy or are they just making it as they go along? Bank of Australia must be tearing their hair out (if they had any left) at AUD strength knowing hard commodities could tank, gold aside.

If Dollar/Yen support breaks, EUR/USD to hit 114.5 or even spike to 117 before a sharp reversal to 108?

Lá Fhéile Pádraig / Happy St Patrick's Day.

ixus · 17-03-2016 10:10AM

The dovishness has vaught a lot by surprise. I fully expected a signal for the coming meetings. They have bottled it and made excuses for higher inflation. Their credibility is under scrutiny to such an extent that even FED fanboy Steve Liesman asked that question and expressed his surprise on Cnbc.

Read this blog on inflation measures to show how much they put their head in sand on inflation:

http://macro-man.blogspot.ie/2016/03/march-madness.html?m=1

For ever odd · 17-03-2016 11:53AM

https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20060918004541AAQEqQe

In my opinion too much lateral thinking has taken over the markets.
"Sit down and think about things logically" is what I think is been said at meetings today.

Logic outperforms lateral in the long term.

dasdog · 17-03-2016 11:59AM

Closed doors in banking institutions made their move. This going to set up some great positions when the dust settles if rationality returns. Standing aside is the best trade.

FEO, sound quality is terrible but this was recommended as a must listen.

For ever odd · 18-03-2016 06:21PM

Thanks for the link dasdog, very interesting and the first time believe it or not that I heard Charlie speak. The man is brilliant, but upon listening to that clip I realised why he is number 2 and Warren is number 1. Quiet simply, as much as he trys to portray humility he thinks of himself superior (well founded) and therefore lacks respect. Warren on the other hand portrays superior but thinks himself humble, and affords Charlie respect at any given chance (Charlie and I think...). What a partnership, with both having the strength to each others weaknesses.

RobertKK · 19-03-2016 01:18PM

Bought some Sarepta therapeutics (SRPT) during the week, when it was announced that the FDA will decide on their Duchenne Muscle Dystrophy drug next month. A genetic condition with currently no treatment.
Bought in two tranches at $16.70 and $15.15.
It then fell to a low of $14.26 on Wednesday before it was announced that insiders had bought $2.5 million worth of stock directly on the stock market, which was great news for shareholders.
Currently at $18. It's 50 day movement average is in the $13s and the 200 day moving average is in the $27s.
Planning on selling half before the decision and the rest for the risky outcome. The only thing going against it seems to be the small sample of clinical cases in the trial, but parents who have had the drugs used on their children are pleading for it to be approved.
US Congress in the past couple of years had asked for the drug to be approved given there is currently no treatment and life expectancy at most is mid 20s.
That is my biggest trade of the year so far. Expect it to get well into the 20s at least before the FDA decide if it goes way higher or way way lower.
With the FDA, who knows.

crooked_feet · 19-03-2016 01:23PM

bought freeport mc moran for $3.90 in january , sold yesterday @ $11.13 , think its due a pullback despite the bear rally in energy

RobertKK · 19-03-2016 04:35PM

crooked_feet wrote: »

bought freeport mc moran for $3.90 in january , sold yesterday @ $11.13 , think its due a pullback despite the bear rally in energy

I know someone else did the same trade and also sold yesterday.

Well done.

For ever odd · 21-03-2016 01:43PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Bought some Sarepta therapeutics (SRPT) during the week, when it was announced that the FDA will decide on their Duchenne Muscle Dystrophy drug next month. A genetic condition with currently no treatment.
Bought in two tranches at $16.70 and $15.15.
It then fell to a low of $14.26 on Wednesday before it was announced that insiders had bought $2.5 million worth of stock directly on the stock market, which was great news for shareholders.
Currently at $18. It's 50 day movement average is in the $13s and the 200 day moving average is in the $27s.
Planning on selling half before the decision and the rest for the risky outcome. The only thing going against it seems to be the small sample of clinical cases in the trial, but parents who have had the drugs used on their children are pleading for it to be approved.
US Congress in the past couple of years had asked for the drug to be approved given there is currently no treatment and life expectancy at most is mid 20s.
That is my biggest trade of the year so far. Expect it to get well into the 20s at least before the FDA decide if it goes way higher or way way lower.
With the FDA, who knows.

100 ema is 21.75 on daily, and would be roughly half of the gap down on jan 15(?). Short term target would be around that area for me.

EDIT; target hit, 20% rise today. Nice one Robert!

RobertKK · 21-03-2016 08:20PM

For ever odd wrote: »

100 ema is 21.75 on daily, and would be roughly half of the gap down on jan 15(?). Short term target would be around that area for me.

EDIT; target hit, 20% rise today. Nice one Robert!

Thanks. and you showed how good you are. Closed at $21.71, which is around where you said.
The few on stocktwits who said they were shorting well below that could have done with your advice...

newacc2015 · 21-03-2016 11:01PM

Starwood Property Trust could be a good buy. They have an almost 10% dividend. They have also brought 2 massive portfolios of Irish property in the last 2 years. I imagine holding this stock for a few years even without the 10% dividend will pay off. A ton of pension funds have brought into them in the last year. It is a vulture fund, that you actually benefit from

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Directors-and-dealings?s=STWD:NYQ

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2016/03/21/starwood-property-trust-named-top-dividend-stock-with-insider-buying-and-10-08-yield-stwd/#2adfd32632e0

For ever odd · 21-03-2016 11:10PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Thanks. and you showed how good you are. Closed at $21.71, which is around where you said.
The few on stocktwits who said they were shorting well below that could have done with your advice...

Hmmm, there are guys who bought this at €11, the likes of yourself that are in at €16,and the likes of myself who made a fast buck today at €18ish...And then there is the guys to come.
This has the perfect hallmarks of a pump and dump (great for you if it is) I can just imagine what's been said, 100% since Jan, 20% today, this is going to rocket... €100+ etc etc.
Tomorrow should tell a tale, whether today was the start of it, or whether today was all the early birds unloading /profit taking.
Just an example of who's knocking around.

For ever odd · 21-03-2016 11:26PM

Markets still scratching the heads from Thursdays dovish FED, and then Lacker and Williams come out and stir it up with hawkish comments. Fcuked if I know whats going on.

RobertKK · 23-03-2016 03:58PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Hmmm, there are guys who bought this at €11, the likes of yourself that are in at €16,and the likes of myself who made a fast buck today at €18ish...And then there is the guys to come.
This has the perfect hallmarks of a pump and dump (great for you if it is) I can just imagine what's been said, 100% since Jan, 20% today, this is going to rocket... €100+ etc etc.
Tomorrow should tell a tale, whether today was the start of it, or whether today was all the early birds unloading /profit taking.
Just an example of who's knocking around.

That short term call you made two days ago was really spot on.

For ever odd · 23-03-2016 10:42PM

RobertKK wrote: »

That short term call you made two days ago was really spot on.

I wouldn't read to much into it, but sometimes it nice to be a jammy sod!!

https://youtu.be/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBFKdjaHiQ

For ever odd · 29-03-2016 08:59AM

Yelled speaking this evening and NFP on Friday.

Markets have been subdued the last week or so and we are coming to quarter end. I think traders will be rejuvenated after the easter break and are planning the next two weeks around the events mentioned above. Sideline traders amongst other traders will be itching to get involved and we might see direction decided. As it stands there are plenty in both the bull and bear camps.

Spikes and volatility are on the cards.

ixus · 29-03-2016 10:02AM

Not to forget end of Quarter.

For ever odd · 29-03-2016 10:29AM

ixus wrote: »

Not to forget end of Quarter.

I did mention it.

What's your thoughts on European equities?

I am watching the eurstoxx 50, it closed below 3000 last month and if we get a monthly close below that level again, it would indicate to me that all is not good. Especially after the ECB pumping more money into the system.

ixus · 29-03-2016 10:43AM

Apols, missed that.

I initially thought ECB would be a massive boost for equities. However, banking sector is back below pre~ecb levels. This is not a positive indicator imho.

29-03-2016 09:57PM

Hugo Boss AG €54.69, dust has settled after notification of 2016 profits being lower than expected in February and subsequently the CEO stepping down a week later.

€3.62 dividend Payable Date & Record Date 20May2016, 6.6% ish.

Decent stock imo for the short term (1 to 3 years)

For ever odd · 31-03-2016 06:30AM

Augeo wrote: »

Hugo Boss AG €54.69, dust has settled after notification of 2016 profits being lower than expected in February and subsequently the CEO stepping down a week later.

€3.62 dividend Payable Date & Record Date 20May2016, 6.6% ish.

Decent stock imo for the short term (1 to 3 years)

http://group.hugoboss.com/en/investor-relations/faq/

I always used to have a few Hugo items in the wardrobe, until a few years ago. The last two items I bought, weren't worth wearing after the first wash. Whether they sacrificed quality for quantity ( expansion of shops and business ) I don't know, but I do know I will not be buying any more of their products. Shame really as they were really good.

31-03-2016 12:48PM

I like their stuff, have a few polo shirts for work that wash well. Also have a few hundred € jacket but it's too warm most of the time (duck down).

That aside I reckon the shares are good buy at the moment, the brand is no doubt less exclusive than it was years ago

For ever odd · 31-03-2016 05:05PM

Alot of luxury brands have issued profit warnings for 2016, it's not just Hugo Boss, the sector is rattled.
The old adage 'Sell the first profit warning, Buy the third' springs to mind.

If the opportunity arose I would consider buying Hugo Boss at €41 and if lucky €32 for a long term hold (20+ years).

As of now, it is rising from its feb low, with decreasing volume.

31-03-2016 05:47PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Alot of luxury brands have issued profit warnings for 2016, it's not just Hugo Boss, the sector is rattled.
The old adage 'Sell the first profit warning, Buy the third' springs to mind.

If the opportunity arose I would consider buying Hugo Boss at €41 and if lucky €32 for a long term hold (20+ years).

As of now, it is rising from its feb low, with decreasing volume.

Can't really see the price getting down to €41............ regarding the old adage

#1 Nov 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/26/china-slowdown-remy-cointreau-hugo-boss-profit-warning
#2 Nov 2014 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/04/hugo-boss-profit-warning
#3 Feb 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-24/hugo-boss-clothing-focus-hurts-as-china-and-us-retrench

RobertKK · 31-03-2016 11:26PM

Bought GNCA at $5.84 at 7.50pm, it closed at $7.74 at 9pm, they rose strongly after Cowen gave them a price target of $40 after results of a trial on herpes came out earlier in the day.

Adam Feuerstein then gave his opinion on the biotech stock's trial results which caused the stock to slump to below $6.60 in after hours trading after it has risen to over $8.30 before his tweets.
Then it rebounded to it's current price in AH at $7.54. Not sure if I should have sold earlier, but tomorrow should be interesting either way.
Whoever thought herpes could be such fun :pac:

Sabre Man · 01-04-2016 10:54AM

TSLA is racing ahead after long queues all over the world for Model 3 reservations.

01-04-2016 03:28PM

Tesla is a strange one imo, short term the share price will more than likely approach previous high of $280 but longterm they need to sell shed loads of cars which they will struggle to do given that they struggle to make launch dates.

Anyone who bought in Feb just gone is after getting a serious return. Really shows how mad the stock market can be, $240 01Jan, $144 10Feb & $240 today.

Sabre Man · 01-04-2016 04:46PM

I don't think they will have a problem selling the cars. Also, Model 3 is simpler than Model X, where they had big issues with the falcon wing doors.

People were queuing up all over the world to put a deposit on a car that won't be available for another 18 months or so. 137k deposits taken by the end of the presentation. That has never happened with other cars.

01-04-2016 05:07PM

Sabre Man wrote: »

I don't think they will have a problem selling the cars. ..........

You have to get them made before you can sell them

High volume manufacturing is new to Tesla compared to current volumes.

Also, I'd be personally very reluctant to buy a share at $240 when it was $144 6/7 weeks ago

Sabre Man · 01-04-2016 05:25PM

Everything was down 6-7 weeks ago. TLSA was a very good buy at 144. I bought at 190 a few weeks ago and again today at 235.

High volume manufacturing might pose some initial challenges but I am confident Elon can pull it off. My next car will probably be a Tesla.

Already past 180k reservations:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-musk-model-3-orders-surpassed-115-000-within-24-hours-1459483890?mod=yahoo_hs

RobertKK · 02-04-2016 11:33AM

RobertKK wrote: »

Bought GNCA at $5.84 at 7.50pm, it closed at $7.74 at 9pm, they rose strongly after Cowen gave them a price target of $40 after results of a trial on herpes came out earlier in the day.

Adam Feuerstein then gave his opinion on the biotech stock's trial results which caused the stock to slump to below $6.60 in after hours trading after it has risen to over $8.30 before his tweets.
Then it rebounded to it's current price in AH at $7.54. Not sure if I should have sold earlier, but tomorrow should be interesting either way.
Whoever thought herpes could be such fun :pac:

I got a bit greedy,wanted to see if it would break the resistance point of $7.74, it got there, then got a visitor at the wrong time, was back to trade and sell and it was at $6.88, but over around a dollar profit per share was alright for 24 hours, but some nice profit was left behind, should have just set a sell at $7.70, but one learns from mistakes.
Profit is profit at the end of the day.

RobertKK · 02-04-2016 11:37AM

I like Tesla and I do think Elon Musk is the most innovative person in business for the last number of years, but with Tesla I am wary of it's valuation, one can argue it is a technology company or an auto company.
If it is an auto company then way overvalued, if technology company then I don't know.

For ever odd · 02-04-2016 12:36PM

In game theory, the Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players, in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only their own strategy.

If you replace Janet and Mario in the prisoners dilemma model, it should help paint a clearer picture.
Alas it way above my pay station, but if any of the more economic savy want to have a crack at it, be my guest.

spaceman902 · 02-04-2016 02:08PM

I have a nice little trade going with SYN at the minute, bought in at 1.92, currently trading at 2.50. It's just broken above the 200 day MA, and the price has just passed an inverse head and shoulders on the 1 day chart. I have been reading that an exit at bout 2.66 would be wise with this formation, and I think I'll take some profits when this happens. Any chartists on the thread that might have an opinion?

Thanks in advance!

For ever odd · 02-04-2016 03:49PM

spaceman902 wrote: »

I have a nice little trade going with SYN at the minute, bought in at 1.92, currently trading at 2.50. It's just broken above the 200 day MA, and the price has just passed an inverse head and shoulders on the 1 day chart. I have been reading that an exit at bout 2.66 would be wise with this formation, and I think I'll take some profits when this happens. Any chartists on the thread that might have an opinion?

Thanks in advance!

http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/inverted-head-and-shoulders-pattern.html

For ever odd · 03-04-2016 02:36PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Bought the DAX at 9500, S&P 1900 holding for now.
Just taking on the level, also divergence on daily chart.

I was reading back through the thread and saw this post from Feb 2, and remember taking it on because of large round numbers.
Now, this is just an observation from that point of time, using the close of that day and Fridays close (rounded %)

S&P up 9%
DOW up 10%
FTSE up 4.6%
STOXX 50 up 1.2%
DAX up 3.5%

With the Fed on hold and brexit election coming, I am of the opinion that US will continue to outperform Europe for the next quarter.

Could be way off the mark, but that's what I'm going with!

RobertKK · 07-04-2016 02:27AM

Biotech on fire again after it had been as popular as zika virus for several months now.
Yesterday biotech ETFs IBB up 6% and XBI up 7%.
Some massive gains for individual biotech stocks

Still holding my SRPT shares but plan on selling most before 23rd April given a binary event looms.
Up 19% yesterday as it broke through the 21.70s resistance area to close at $23.30.
Technically the charts shows the next resistance level is at $36, here's hoping the run continues and a gap fill.

For ever odd · 07-04-2016 06:56AM

RobertKK wrote: »

Biotech on fire again after it had been as popular as zika virus for several months now.
Yesterday biotech ETFs IBB up 6% and XBI up 7%.
Some massive gains for individual biotech stocks

Still holding my SRPT shares but plan on selling most before 23rd April given a binary event looms.
Up 19% yesterday as it broke through the 21.70s resistance area to close at $23.30.
Technically the charts shows the next resistance level is at $36, here's hoping the run continues and a gap fill.

SRPT got a brokers revised recommendion of $ 60 yesterday, and got a little pump on cnbc, price and volume took off as soon as.

If the raised price target is anything like teslas' upgrade to $280, then today should be interesting.

For ever odd · 07-04-2016 10:34AM

All markets are prone to bubbles, where investors get overenthusiastic about a particular asset. The tricky bit is spotting them before they pop.

Analysts at UBS have found a way to crunch the numbers to do just that.

At the start of the year they said US health stocks looked expensive and shares in global energy firms were cheap – and they were right.

The energy sector no longer stands out as a crowded sell in the US and developed Europe, but remains a crowded sell for Asia ex-Japan. The over-bought pressure in the US and Asia ex-Japan Healthcare sector has also released to a certain extent, albeit for the US all three indicators are still relatively high compared with historical levels.

This time around the expensive shares are in the European tech industry, which are soaring after recommendations to buy from investment banks. Meanwhile, stocks in Asian banks look cheap, according to UBS:

New sectors that stand out European IT emerged as the crowded-bought sector, driven mainly by the Semiconductor names. In Asia ex-Japan, the Financials sector continues to deteriorate, reflecting ongoing concerns around Asia’s credit cycle.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ubs-map-of-all-the-bubbles-in-the-stock-market-2016-4

Time to start looking into European IT and semi- conductors companies for shorting. Graphics in link.

For ever odd · 07-04-2016 01:59PM

dasdog wrote: »

Do the Fed know something we don't know about the wider global economy or are they just making it as they go along? Bank of Australia must be tearing their hair out (if they had any left) at AUD strength knowing hard commodities could tank, gold aside.

If Dollar/Yen support breaks, EUR/USD to hit 114.5 or even spike to 117 before a sharp reversal to 108?

Lá Fhéile Pádraig / Happy St Patrick's Day.

Hi dasdog,
That turned out pretty accurate. What's the word on the grapevine?

dasdog · 07-04-2016 07:28PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Hi dasdog,
That turned out pretty accurate. What's the word on the grapevine?

Yep, the warning signals were being re-iterated from more and more sources.

USD/JPY target still being eyed and even 105 or below now which is putting me off my plan of going long at 106.5. There is little resistance on the way down from here (108.2) and there are doubts over what intervention the BoJ can actually do. I wouldn't risk getting caught in a bear trap where it sits right now though.

EUR/USD took a slap down from 114.5 when it hit but has good support at 113.2, resistance at today's high and 115.4. More chance of staying in a range as EUR/JPY is also taking a bruising but 117/8 spike still possible short term.

For ever odd · 11-04-2016 08:48PM

From June last year,

For ever odd wrote: »

I don't trade silver but I had a look at the charts, and there is a nice formation on the weekly charts that suggests a breakout in the next 1-3 weeks, if not the formation is null.
For me it would be a drop to 1200's or a rise to 2200,s over the coming months depending on which way it breaks.

Silver.

While the breakout was correct, it has failed to hit either of the levels mentioned.
From June last year Silver (spot price) has tried and failed to make a weekly close above 1610 on a few occasions. It is knocking at 1610 and a possible inverse h&s is on the cards.

If it does break through this level there is big resistance at 1699, and 1845 would tie in nicely with the Ih&s and last point of contact on the above mentioned pattern.
If it fails again....
Technical idea, anyone got a handle on the fundamentals.

For ever odd · 17-04-2016 08:03PM

No Deal in Doha.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/oil-freeze-talks-end-in-failure-amid-saudi-demands-over-iran

For ever odd · 19-04-2016 08:51AM

For ever odd wrote: »

No Deal in Doha.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/oil-freeze-talks-end-in-failure-amid-saudi-demands-over-iran

I don't know how many of you read the article in the link, but if you read it again, It's like a different version of events. Why? Why could the writer not accept that he made an pig's ear of his analysis and move on?
The link below goes a little way to explaining the phenomenon, that effects everyone from imbecile to academic.

http://kevinmarcoux.com/narrative-fallacy-stop-making-sense/?fdx_switcher=true

RobertKK · 25-04-2016 11:51AM

For ever odd wrote: »

SRPT got a brokers revised recommendion of $ 60 yesterday, and got a little pump on cnbc, price and volume took off as soon as.

If the raised price target is anything like teslas' upgrade to $280, then today should be interesting.

Well I sold most of SRPT early last week at $21.62 after a buy with an average of $15.97, as I wanted it gone before briefing documents by the FDA were released and definitely all I wanted sold before today. It was a good trade, but one word - wow.
It fell to the $10 area when briefing documents were released and the following day more info by the FDA was released and the stock then rose over 30%.
Currently halted as today is the big day, I just hold a small amount of shares - approx €1500 worth as I took some profit with the capital off the table. Shares were up 8% today pre-market before being halted. Later today we will know the outcome of the FDA decision, it will move either violently up or down and more importantly a good or bad day for DMD sufferers, it is being called the biggest FDA decision in two years. Politicians like Marco Rubio are attending the FDA hearing in support of approval and over 1,000 people are attending the hearing.

Today we will know if that price target is pie in the sky or real. Validation today for SRPT also validates the other drugs it has in development for other variants of the same genetic disease.

RobertKK · 26-04-2016 10:26PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Well I sold most of SRPT early last week at $21.62 after a buy with an average of $15.97, as I wanted it gone before briefing documents by the FDA were released and definitely all I wanted sold before today. It was a good trade, but one word - wow.
It fell to the $10 area when briefing documents were released and the following day more info by the FDA was released and the stock then rose over 30%.
Currently halted as today is the big day, I just hold a small amount of shares - approx €1500 worth as I took some profit with the capital off the table. Shares were up 8% today pre-market before being halted. Later today we will know the outcome of the FDA decision, it will move either violently up or down and more importantly a good or bad day for DMD sufferers, it is being called the biggest FDA decision in two years. Politicians like Marco Rubio are attending the FDA hearing in support of approval and over 1,000 people are attending the hearing.

Today we will know if that price target is pie in the sky or real. Validation today for SRPT also validates the other drugs it has in development for other variants of the same genetic disease.

Thought it would have been down more today but after initial 44% fall it rallied to half losses.
Chances are low the drug is approved for DMD sufferers after a recommendation yesterday to not approve it, but it still could be next month.
It was a nice play.

jpboard1 · 28-04-2016 10:12PM

Getting long commodities against yen today. Fingers crossed.

dasdog · 29-04-2016 10:02PM

jpboard1 wrote: »

Getting long commodities against yen today. Fingers crossed.

Prices look cheap, you might have chosen the wrong day. Stay away from it until the BoJ are forced. US entering recession is something I don't think any of us want.

30-04-2016 02:05PM

Augeo wrote: »

Hugo Boss AG €54.69, dust has settled after notification of 2016 profits being lower than expected in February and subsequently the CEO stepping down a week later.

€3.62 dividend Payable Date & Record Date 20May2016, 6.6% ish.

Decent stock imo for the short term (1 to 3 years)

A month on the price is much the same after hitting over €60 for a bit, just a mention for any dividend surfers lurking

6% dividend not to be sneezed at, especially if you planned on hoping the presumed one in 13 months time would be similar

TRADER'S CORNER

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