Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

sondagefaux · 17-01-2020 12:55pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well quite! But that is exactly my point. Barnier showed how strong a united EU is.

So faced with that again the UK are going to really struggle to gain any advantage. So anyone would tell you that some change in process is required. It may not work, but it won't end up any worse than if they simply go toe to toe.

The key is maintaining the EU mandate. We already see and hear pockets of disagreement with the EU, though since most of Phase I was more academic to most countries than economic it was easier to stay on board.

Of course the elephant in the room is that this isn't the 1st time the EU has entered in trade talks with different members wanting different things. So they are well versed in how to handle it. The UK seem to think that this is the 1st time this has happened (in line with the thinking of the UK throughout this process that they are unique and special).

The whole idea of the EU is compromise. The UK will be attempting to create as many areas of compromise within members that they manage to get some gains. It isn't about getting everything, even the UK must know that is not possible so they are trying to get whatever they can.

The EU is a constant negotiation within the Council between the member states, within the European Parliament between the various groups, and between the Council, Commission and Parliament.

If there's one thing that the EU is expert in, it's negotiations.

As for brinksmanship, it doesn't work with the EU.

The Greeks threatened to default on their debts and leave the euro. That was a vastly bigger danger to the EU than not having a trade agreement with Britain (it has one with Northern Ireland already sorted).

Yet the other eurozone states, the Commission and the Parliament held firm, and the Greeks backed down, with a few face-saving scraps thrown in for them.

If the British haven't draw any lessons from that, or from the "negotiations" over the Withdrawal Agreement, in which the EU told the British what they wanted and got it, then they're utter morons.

Strazdas · 17-01-2020 1:19pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Brexit is also predicated on the idea that once Britain voted to leave other nations would follow. This hasn’t happened and infact has regressed in terms of probability. But it doesn’t stop the pro Brexit posters that float through here magnifying any scraps or hints to that end.

If the Italians were also angling to leave this minute the Brits may well have faced a more positive outlook for trade negotiations. But hey ho, here we are.

Fundamentally, if Britain leave and the EU carries on regardless (particularly if it sees more states accede over the next decade) then Brexit has been a terrible failure from the perspective of its architects. The presumption was not that Britain would be alone, but that Britain was getting out first.

I think this more than anything will be a huge problem for the Brexiteers going forward. If the EU is still going strong and Brexit UK is struggling somewhat, no amount of lies in the British press will be able to cover this up.

swampgas · 17-01-2020 1:20pm

sondagefaux wrote: »

The EU is a constant negotiation within the Council between the member states, within the European Parliament between the various groups, and between the Council, Commission and Parliament.

If there's one thing that the EU is expert in, it's negotiations.

As for brinksmanship, it doesn't work with the EU.

The Greeks threatened to default on their debts and leave the euro. That was a vastly bigger danger to the EU than not having a trade agreement with Britain (it has one with Northern Ireland already sorted).

Yet the other eurozone states, the Commission and the Parliament held firm, and the Greeks backed down, with a few face-saving scraps thrown in for them.

Agreed.

If the British haven't draw any lessons from that, or from the "negotiations" over the Withdrawal Agreement, in which the EU told the British what they wanted and got it, then they're utter morons.

My own take on it is that the UK's problem is that they cannot do a realistic deal with the EU without a truly massive climbdown.

They simply don't want to accept that they are not the empire they used to be, that they do not have the influence or the power they used to have, and that they are not better than the unwashed savages across the channel.

Pride, hubris, arrogance, call it want you want, but the UK will continue to stagger round like a drunk looking for fight until they internalise their true status in the modern world.

Zubeneschamali · 17-01-2020 1:23pm

Strazdas wrote: »

If the EU is still going strong and Brexit UK is struggling somewhat, no amount of lies in the British press will be able to cover this up.

Of course they will - it is the EU's fault for not giving the UK what it deserves, makes me happy we left such a nasty organization.

Anyone saying different is a traitor and probably sabotaging Brexit, 5th column etc.

sondagefaux · 17-01-2020 1:30pm

SantaCruz wrote: »

This is a bit like the territorial claim to NI that we deleted in the GFA. They reckon we are still really British, even if we won't admit it.

This is why so many Brits think Ireland will leave the EU and rejoin the UK.

Strazdas · 17-01-2020 1:46pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Of course they will - it is the EU's fault for not giving the UK what it deserves, makes me happy we left such a nasty organization.

Anyone saying different is a traitor and probably sabotaging Brexit, 5th column etc.

The Telegraph & Co will go for this angle (lying is what they do) but I suspect they could run into problems. If the mood in the UK was to shift against the Tory government, they risk losing control of the narrative.

CelticRambler · 17-01-2020 2:04pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

We already see and hear pockets of disagreement with the EU ...

Indeed, but 'twas ever thus. There have always been pockets of disagreement within the EU (EC/EEC), and the reviled, supposedly-unelected, faceless bureaucrats in "Brussels" have 40 years' experience of reconciling those competing demands to achieve a workable consensus. Of course, one of the most troublesome "pockets" over that time has been a certain large island nation off the coast of France ... :rolleyes:

Where the real problem is for the UK, in my view, is the lack of any precise Brexit objective - other than "getting it done". Come February 1st, when Brexit is "done" and the word has been banned from common usage, what then?

This is where the whole project will come unstuck, because although Sunderland Man will be happy to have given two fingers to the EU, to know that the UK has left, (Big Ben bongs or not

), to be able to sit in his factory canteen and talk about football instead of Brexit, he'll be expecting life to go on as normal - complete with all the advantages he's enjoyed during 40 years' membership of the club.

Meanwhile, the (faceless, unelected) bureaucrats in Whitehall will be struggling with reconciling the contradiction of ensuring that everything remains the same or better - as promised by the Brexiters - as Johnson continues to peddle his nonsense about everything being open to change, all the time refusing to be specific about anything ...

I imagine the EU negotiators will come to the table with a long list of detailed proposals, ready to work through each and every one of them taking whatever time is needed; and the GB side will respond with "umm, yeah, I'm not sure we have a position on that yet ..."

johnnyskeleton · 17-01-2020 2:27pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There's 1.64m Irish Citizens in NI.

Sorry I meant 325k who are solely Irish citizens i.e. refuse to accept UK citizenship as well.

johnnyskeleton · 17-01-2020 2:36pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Brexit is also predicated on the idea that once Britain voted to leave other nations would follow. This hasn’t happened and infact has regressed in terms of probability. But it doesn’t stop the pro Brexit posters that float through here magnifying any scraps or hints to that end.

If the Italians were also angling to leave this minute the Brits may well have faced a more positive outlook for trade negotiations. But hey ho, here we are.

Fundamentally, if Britain leave and the EU carries on regardless (particularly if it sees more states accede over the next decade) then Brexit has been a terrible failure from the perspective of its architects. The presumption was not that Britain would be alone, but that Britain was getting out first.

It would be especially galling for the UK if the EU were to go through a process of reforms over the next 10 years too, maybe have an open debate as to whether the EU has become too large too quickly (in terms of competencies more so than in relation to the number of Member States) or introduce direct elections for the Commission etc! I'd say the Brexiteers would love that!

Lemming · 17-01-2020 2:39pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Brexit is also predicated on the idea that once Britain voted to leave other nations would follow. This hasn’t happened and infact has regressed in terms of probability. But it doesn’t stop the pro Brexit posters that float through here magnifying any scraps or hints to that end.

Bold is my emphasis in the above quote

I see it a lot on a daily basis with the news headline updates on my phone; the usual rag suspects like the express and co have headlines about how person-whoever destroys some EU politician/body, or EU in peril over whatever. It's equally applied to Scotland with the SNP. It really is toxic Alice in wonderland bile being fed to a large portion of the general populace on a daily basis.

sondagefaux · 17-01-2020 3:08pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

It would be especially galling for the UK if the EU were to go through a process of reforms over the next 10 years too, maybe have an open debate as to whether the EU has become too large too quickly (in terms of competencies more so than in relation to the number of Member States) or introduce direct elections for the Commission etc! I'd say the Brexiteers would love that!

Brexiteers reject the idea that there is a European demos. In their minds, the EU can never be democratic because of this, no matter how its officials or representatives are chosen.

The best reform the EU could institute would be to give the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation.

It could be subject to certain conditions:

a parliamentary motion for proposed legislation would have to be cleared by the EU's legal service (the CJEU would have the right to give its opinion) to ensure that it fell within the legal powers of the EU

the parliament could only initiate legislation in those areas where the EU has exclusive legal powers (aka exclusive competence)

the parliament could only initiate legislation if the outcome of the proposed legislation could not conflict with the constitutions of the member states (the constitutional courts of the member states would have the right to give their opinions)

the proposed legislation would have to secure the normal qualified majority in the Council (i.e. supported by at least 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the total EU population)

the proposed legislation would have to secure a special qualified majority in the Parliament with at least 55% of allMEPs (not just those voting) from at least 55% of the member states, representing at least 65% of the total EU population supporting it

even if the proposed legislation achieved the support required in the Council and the Parliament, it could still be blocked if at least a simple majority of national parliaments voted (by a simply majority of their members voting; i.e. not a simple majority of all their members, just those voting) to reject it

any proposed legislation blocked in such a way would not be able to be re-tabled for at least five years; it could however be re-tabled within that period under the current procedures whereby the Commission initiates proposed legislation.

CelticRambler · 17-01-2020 3:16pm

sondagefaux wrote: »

The best reform the EU could institute would be to give the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation.

No need for reform: it already has the right to "initiate" legislation, by instructing the Commission to submit proposals for legislation on projects agreed by the Parliament as worthy of consideration, and if the Commission doesn't do so within the given deadline, it has to explain why.

All annoyingly democratic and accountable, isn't it? :pac:

johnnyskeleton · 17-01-2020 3:37pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

No need for reform: it already has the right to "initiate" legislation, by instructing the Commission to submit proposals for legislation on projects agreed by the Parliament as worthy of consideration, and if the Commission doesn't do so within the given deadline, it has to explain why.

All annoyingly democratic and accountable, isn't it? :pac:

A friend of mine described it quite well - it's as democratic as it can possibly be, given that it is not a nation state, not a government and not a federation.

Brexiteers criticise the EU for being undemocratic because in their minds it is a federal state. But it isn't. If it becomes a federal state in the future, then it's democratically elected legislature will need to be the ultimate body of power. If it isn't a federal state, then the council of ministers has to be the ultimate body of power.

sondagefaux · 17-01-2020 4:15pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

No need for reform: it already has the right to "initiate" legislation, by instructing the Commission to submit proposals for legislation on projects agreed by the Parliament as worthy of consideration, and if the Commission doesn't do so within the given deadline, it has to explain why.

All annoyingly democratic and accountable, isn't it? :pac:

Fair enough, and given that the Parliament can sack the entire Commission, I guess the Commission has to either introduce the legislation or convince the Parliament it's not actually needed...

sondagefaux · 17-01-2020 4:15pm

No memes please.

black forest · 17-01-2020 4:25pm

Just two days ago the “Institute for Government” published a new 96 pages long paper about “Influencing the EU after Brexit”. Within that are quite interesting graphics and four of them deal with the decision finding within the EU.

As these graphics are too big and making them smaller would be a waste of information please have look at them at the bottom of this post.

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1217869124212273154?s=21

There is a small article here and the complete pdf with all graphics here.

Have been just overflying it and will have a thorough read later. Just posted to show the processes within the EU. It seems that no member of the UK cabinet ever bothered to have a look at these freely available informations or the organigrams of the EU. They obviously like it to learn the hard way.

After January the gloves will be definitely off and there are already quite obvious signs of the tone getting sharper.

Imreoir2 · 17-01-2020 4:25pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

A friend of mine described it quite well - it's as democratic as it can possibly be, given that it is not a nation state, not a government and not a federation.

Brexiteers criticise the EU for being undemocratic because in their minds it is a federal state. But it isn't. If it becomes a federal state in the future, then it's democratically elected legislature will need to be the ultimate body of power. If it isn't a federal state, then the council of ministers has to be the ultimate body of power.

This is the basic contradiction of Euroscepticism. They want power in the EU to be weighted more in favour of the member state, but criticise the EU for having a democratic deficit which exists because power in the EU is weighted in favour of the member state. Eliminitating the democratic defecit they decry would shift power away from the member state.

Imreoir2 · 17-01-2020 4:35pm

black forest wrote: »

Just two days ago the “Institute for Government” published a new 96 pages long paper about “Influencing the EU after Brexit”. Within that are quite interesting graphics and four of them deal with the decision finding within the EU.

As these graphics are too big and making them smaller would be a waste of information please have look at them at the bottom of this post.

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1217869124212273154?s=21

There is a small article here and the complete pdf with all graphics here.

Have been just overflying it and will have a thorough read later. Just posted to show the processes within the EU. It seems that no member of the UK cabinet ever bothered to have a look at these freely available informations or the organigrams of the EU. They obviously like it to learn the hard way.

After January the gloves will be definitely off and there are already quite obvious signs of the tone getting sharper.

Love a good flow chart.

Strange how these charts seem to show that the commission goes through a huge amount of consultation and feedback with national parliaments, governments, and elected representatives in the European Parliament as it develops its proposals, and that they seem to suggest that the council and parliament have control over commission proposals being adopted. I notice a destinct lack of the commission imposing its will on everyone else.

Surely someone made a mistake?

Enzokk · 17-01-2020 5:35pm

So there is 2 weeks left for British MEP's in Brussels. As you could expect the Brexit Party wants a big show and dance about them leaving when it will be a somber time for most people there.

Brexit: no union jack-lowering ceremony in European parliament

The part I found interesting is this,

Earlier this week British MEPs were given the deadlines for clearing their offices, terminating staff contracts and returning equipment, such as EU passes, keys and iPads. Many British MEPs are not entitled to the European parliament’s redundancy payment, as they have served for less than a year. “People were upset,” said one source, who described the meeting as “bumpy”.

I guess not many would be upset that they have to return their keys and passes and iPads , but I would think some will be upset to learn they are off the EU gravy train when it comes to payments because they haven't served long enough. Guess which party had the most new MEP's who would fall in this category?

Leroy42 · 17-01-2020 7:21pm

Enzokk wrote: »

I guess not many would be upset that they have to return their keys and passes and iPads , but I would think some will be upset to learn they are off the EU gravy train when it comes to payments because they haven't served long enough. Guess which party had the most new MEP's who would fall in this category?

Its ok, he has stated that he won't be taking it. Of course he didn't actually specify that he had contacted them to refuse it, or that he would send the money somewhere else, but his statement was taken as true.

This is the man that just conned a few hundred thousand from fellow Brexiteers on the basis of registering to run in the GE before he cancelled their campaign and pocketed the money.

Also the man that has been having his rent and expenses paid for by the likes or Arron Banks for the last few years.

theguzman · 17-01-2020 8:29pm

Guys, I have totally lost interest in Brexit with the last few months and since it is now going ahead does anybody know what would be the situation with regards to duty free between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland or on flights between Ireland and the UK? Has there any arrangements been made yet or what will happen to those shipments of stuff from Amazon etc. Will everything remain the same during the transition period and the rude awakening not happen until further down the line?

Strazdas · 17-01-2020 8:40pm

theguzman wrote: »

Guys, I have totally lost interest in Brexit with the last few months and since it is now going ahead does anybody know what would be the situation with regards to duty free between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland or on flights between Ireland and the UK? Has there any arrangements been made yet or what will happen to those shipments of stuff from Amazon etc. Will everything remain the same during the transition period and the rude awakening not happen until further down the line?

I believe this is the case, yes. No tariffs or duties will apply during the transition period. It's December 2020 when the problems could start.

tuxy · 17-01-2020 8:43pm

Everything remains the same for the transition period. During that time both side will have to work hard to have as many agreements in place which would start to remove some of the uncertainty, we don't know what these agreement will be yet. It's possible that the UK amends their law to allow them to ask for an extension on the transition period.

So I can't answer your questions as talks do not start until the transition period starts.
There was talk of an Irish Amazon site but if not it will probably best to order from Germany, France or Spain.

listermint · 18-01-2020 12:22am

tuxy wrote: »

Everything remains the same for the transition period. During that time both side will have to work hard to have as many agreements in place which would start to remove some of the uncertainty, we don't know what these agreement will be yet. It's possible that the UK amends their law to allow them to ask for an extension on the transition period.

So I can't answer your questions as talks do not start until the transition period starts.
There was talk of an Irish Amazon site but if not it will probably best to order from Germany, France or Spain.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1219/1102071-amazon-dublin-warehouse-report/

It's already in the mix

Bit cynical · 18-01-2020 12:38am

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This is the basic contradiction of Euroscepticism. They want power in the EU to be weighted more in favour of the member state, but criticise the EU for having a democratic deficit which exists because power in the EU is weighted in favour of the member state. Eliminitating the democratic defecit they decry would shift power away from the member state.

However the converse is not true: shifting power away from the member states does not imply reducing the democratic deficit.

MrMusician18 · 18-01-2020 2:45am

The UK have published their plans on how they are going to acknowledge the day of freedom:
A special coin will be minted
The PM will address the nation with a healing speech
The cabinet will meet in northern England on 31st January
And there will be a light show on government buildings culminating with a countdown clock projected onto 10 Downing St.

Big Ben won't bong.

Can't say I think much of their plans, particularly the countdown clock.

Enzokk · 18-01-2020 8:22am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The UK have published their plans on how they are going to acknowledge the day of freedom:
A special coin will be minted
The PM will address the nation with a healing speech
The cabinet will meet in northern England on 31st January
And there will be a light show on government buildings culminating with a countdown clock projected onto 10 Downing St.

Big Ben won't bong.

Can't say I think much of their plans, particularly the countdown clock.

Make a healing speech but then treat Brexit as a celebration, that is contradictory. Much like the UK treats WW2 as a victory and thinks back on it fondly this will happen with Brexit as well. They should take heed how the rest of the world is treating this, instead of gloating about it and alienating the 50% of the people who still know this is a mistake.

18-01-2020 8:30am

A countdown clock to their MEPs losing their jobs.. Are there many other material differences that happen at the end of the month?

Leroy42 · 18-01-2020 10:47am

I do wonder what game the UK are playing here?

They continually go on about a close relationship, a FTA within 11 months etc, yet they continually come out with hard line stuff like this;

Sajid Javid: no alignment on EU regulations after Brexit https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/18/savid-javid-warns-there-will-be-no-alignment-on-eu-regulations-after-brexit

The election is over so what is the point of creating these red lines before the negotiations even begin?

In an interview with the Financial Times, he said: “There will not be alignment, we will not be a ruletaker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union – and we will do this by the end of the year.

“We’re … talking about companies that have known since 2016 that we are leaving the EU.”

First off, its a bit rich to claim that business, or anyone, has known since 2016. The shape of the withdrawal, date etc are still not known!

I note as well that his comments that not all business will

First Up · 18-01-2020 10:54am

Leroy42 wrote:

They continually go on about a close relationship, a FTA within 11 months etc, yet they continually come out with hard line stuff like this;

Still clinging to the dream of mutual recognition I assume.

Slow learners.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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