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Obama will loose

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24

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    #32
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    kmick wrote: »
    Every bible bashing, model t ford drivin Kansan puts on his best hat and Sunday shoes and heads to the poll to vote for McCain while the 22 year old apartment renting, latte drinking, bohemian artist from the inner city heads to the gym.

    Except that Democratic candidates do usually win the cities. The elections are normally won or lost outside the cities.

    countymap3070small.png


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    #33
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,251 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    BoatMad wrote: »
    At this stage I think the game over. Obama has made a terrible choice with Biden, He should have put the job to Clinton.
    Yes, if the Dems don't wake up before the late September VP debates and replace Biden with Clinton, the game is over. Both Biden and Palin have been recorded publicly stating that they think Hilliary Clinton to be qualified as VP. All Biden would have to do is now decline the nomination of his party in favour of Clinton, then all news media hell would break loose, shifting the stardom attention from Palin to Clinton. Then run the ads over and over again showing both Biden and Palin stating the qualifications of Clinton. The Obama half and the Clinton half of the Democratic party would unite, plus all the women that slipped to Palin because of gender, and with the number of Democrats as registered voters in the large majority, Obama-Clinton would win.

    This silly election is not about qualifications for high office, serious economic issues, or two wars that face the American people. It's about voting for the next American Idol. That's way the Super Power presidential election this year is a Super Farce!


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    #34
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    Blue_Lagoon wrote: »
    Yes, if the Dems don't wake up before the late September VP debates and replace Biden with Clinton, the game is over.

    Obama doesn't want Clinton. Biden isn't going to lose the election for Obama, but changing the VP ticket would be a sure-fire way to lose.


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    #35
    gixerfixer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 759 ✭✭✭gixerfixer


    Why are people hiding the real fact why Obama will not win? There is no way in hell Americans will EVER vote for a black man as president. That is the bottom line. It disgusts me but it's the truth of the situation.


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    #36
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    gixerfixer wrote: »
    Why are people hiding the real fact why Obama will not win? There is no way in hell Americans will EVER vote for a black man as president. That is the bottom line. It disgusts me but it's the truth of the situation.

    If he loses it'll be by 1 or 2 percent of the popular vote (if that). Clearly Americans will vote for a black man.


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    #37
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,251 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    alastair wrote: »
    Obama doesn't want Clinton. Biden isn't going to lose the election for Obama, but changing the VP ticket would be a sure-fire way to lose.
    Obama will not do the switch, so discussing it or predicting the outcome is really moot?

    Although posters like myself have had fun speculating in this and other US Election 2008 threads, no one across the pond is listening to us. We are akin to those who waste euros in lotteries. It's fun to fantasize while we can...




    (Oh, now I am laughing at myself, cause I am temporarily across the pond at USC! Well, my spirit is still with Ireland).


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    #38
    brianthebard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,165 ✭✭✭✭brianthebard


    alastair wrote: »
    If he loses it'll be by 1 or 2 percent of the popular vote (if that). Clearly Americans will vote for a black man.

    Minorities don't get elected to president, I've pointed this out before.


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    #39
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    brianthebard wrote: »
    Minorities don't get elected to president, I've pointed this out before.

    Wow - I hadn't noticed that fact until now!
    Which minority was ever selected to run for president?


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    #40
    brianthebard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,165 ✭✭✭✭brianthebard


    alastair wrote: »
    Wow - I hadn't noticed that fact until now!
    Which minority was ever selected to run for president?

    Your sarcasm needs work. I wasn't just referring to the US there, I meant in general. It applies to all public offices though, just look at how many senators or governors in the US are from a minority background. Not very many, and not representative of the size of their minority.


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    #41
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    brianthebard wrote: »
    Your sarcasm needs work. I wasn't just referring to the US there, I meant in general. It applies to all public offices though, just look at how many senators or governors in the US are from a minority background. Not very many, and not representative of the size of their minority.

    Well, 9% of Congress is African-American (12% of the population), so not too much of a disconnect there.


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    #42
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    brianthebard wrote: »
    Your sarcasm needs work. I wasn't just referring to the US there, I meant in general.

    Presidents in general?


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    #43
    brianthebard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,165 ✭✭✭✭brianthebard


    alastair wrote: »
    Well, 9% of Congress is African-American (12% of the population), so not too much of a disconnect there.

    O rly? You don't think three black senators since reconstruction is a bit of a disconnect?

    As for presidents in general, yes I was referring to world politics, its just not the done thing to elect a president who is a minority. People vote for the candidate that reminds them of themselves.


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    #44
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    brianthebard wrote: »
    O rly? You don't think three black senators since reconstruction is a bit of a disconnect?

    Disconnect on the Sentor front, no real disconnect on House of Representatives. 9% of Congress, with a population at 12% isn't a particulary compelling case that minorities don't get elected to public office.


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    #45
    brianthebard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,165 ✭✭✭✭brianthebard


    Well seeing as that is just one house of two, and both houses are required to be fully representative of the country, I think it is fairly compelling evidence.


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    #46
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    brianthebard wrote: »
    I think it is fairly compelling evidence.

    I suppose it is - if you ignore all the minorities actually elected to Congress. :rolleyes:


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    #47
    eamonnm79
    Closed Accounts Posts: 459 ✭✭eamonnm79


    alastair wrote: »
    I suppose it is - if you ignore all the minorities actually elected to Congress. :rolleyes:

    Hey Alastair, I dont think anyone is saying that all Amaricans are racist.
    But in a close election, there may be enough latent racism (ie not observed in by polls) to swing it in McCains favour.


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    #48
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    eamonnm79 wrote: »
    Hey Alastair, I dont think anyone is saying that all Amaricans are racist.
    But in a close election, there may be enough latent racism (ie not observed in by polls) to swing it in McCains favour.

    No doubt about it. But my point was that racism is enough of a dead issue that he'll only lose by the smallest of margins.


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    #49
    BenjAii
    Closed Accounts Posts: 545 ✭✭✭BenjAii


    alastair wrote: »
    But my point was that racism is enough of a dead issue that he'll only lose by the smallest of margins.

    What evidence do you have that racism is a "dead issue" in America ? The consensus opinion seems to be that there is still a considerable rump in society who hold to these views, but that exactly how much is hard to quantify as people are notoriously unwilling to admit to it.


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    #50
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    BenjAii wrote: »
    What evidence do you have that racism is a "dead issue" in America ? The consensus opinion seems to be that there is still a considerable rump in society who hold to these views, but that exactly how much is hard to quantify as people are notoriously unwilling to admit to it.

    Listen - I've seen racism first hand in the US. I'm not saying that racism is done and dusted. I'm saying that it's enough of a dead issue that Obama will pull 50%ish of the popular vote - win or lose - in this election. I'll go further - I'm betting he outperforms John Kerry - a white dude with a similar set of policies, who was up against a more polarising opponent.


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    #51
    BenjAii
    Closed Accounts Posts: 545 ✭✭✭BenjAii


    alastair wrote: »
    Listen - I've seen racism first hand in the US. I'm not saying that racism is done and dusted. I'm saying that it's enough of a dead issue that Obama will pull 50%ish of the popular vote - win or lose - in this election.

    Alastair, all i'm asking is how do you quantify that ?

    Most people seem to think its impossible to gauge. There is the phenomena of the Bradley Effect
    where there is a discrepancy between the numbers of white people who tell pollsters they will vote for a black candidate and the lower amount that actually do.

    I know it's equally impossible for me to quantify exactly how many white people would not vote for Obama because he is black, but I would suggest the number would not be insignificant. Particularly in very tightly drawn states when relatively small numbers of voters could sway the outcome.


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    #52
    FatherTed
    Registered Users Posts: 2,684 ✭✭✭FatherTed


    Even though I don't like either candidate, I think it is time to get the repubs out of the white house. John McCain used to be a mav'rick, he used to have an opposing view point to the normal Repubs but that has wained over recent years and the final knockout for me came when he pandered to the far right by selecting Palin.

    So I would much prefer Obama to win but it is not going to happen. You see there are millions of stupid enough people who voted for W especially a second time and they will buy into the rhetoric McCain is spewing these days. Plus they would NEVER vote for a black man.


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    #53
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    BenjAii wrote: »
    Alastair, all i'm asking is how do you quantify that ?

    Most people seem to think its impossible to gauge. There is the phenomena of the Bradley Effect
    where there is a discrepancy between the numbers of white people who tell pollsters they will vote for a black candidate and the lower amount that actually do.

    I know it's equally impossible for me to quantify exactly how many white people would not vote for Obama because he is black, but I would suggest the number would not be insignificant. Particularly in very tightly drawn states when relatively small numbers of voters could sway the outcome.

    The ballot results will tell the real tale - it'll be easy enough to establish who neighbourhoods/counties voted for, and draw a pretty good ballpark of racial voting patterns.


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    #54
    snow scorpion
    Registered Users Posts: 2,179 ✭✭✭snow scorpion


    FatherTed wrote: »
    ...when he pandered to the far right by selecting Palin.

    The term always fascinates me. You see Palin as "the far right." In your opinion what are 3-4 differences between "the far right" and "mainstream conservatives"?


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    #55
    dave2pvd
    Registered Users Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭dave2pvd


    snow scorpion wrote: »
    The term always fascinates me. You see Palin as "the far right." In your opinion what are 3-4 differences between "the far right" and "mainstream conservatives"?

    I work amongst the Far Right, so let me kick this little gem off:

    Far right believes creation theory should be taught in schools at the same time as evolution 'theory'
    Far right has a tendency to home school kids
    Far right fails miserably when it comes to sex-ed
    Far right has no tolerance for abortion
    Far right insists on 10 commandments in court houses
    Far right oppose civil union for gays and favor a constitutional amendment to back this up
    Far right would probably prefer 'one nation under Jesus' instead of 'one nation under God'
    Far right doesn't drink alcohol

    Generalizing and stereotyping a bit; there are exceptions to the above, etc.


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    #56
    spank_inferno
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,892 ✭✭✭spank_inferno


    Its took soon to call it just yet.
    I still think Obama will win.

    I can see the 'Palin bounce subsiding' within the next couple of weeks.

    Eventually hype will subside and when people go to choose they will see that the republicans offer nothing but further failure.

    When they are losing their homes & jobs & cant afford health care voters will start coming back

    ps: I think biden will prove a good choice as VP.
    We shouldnt look to the debates though. Because the Rebpublicans will lower expectation to the point that if Palin doesnt trip over her podium it will be at least a tie.


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    #57
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #58
    sink
    Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    donegalfella wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    I think everyone bar themselves consider this group far right. They are the religious equivalent of fascists.
    donegalfella wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    The only people who consider this group far right would be the far left.


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    #59
    BenjAii
    Closed Accounts Posts: 545 ✭✭✭BenjAii


    snow scorpion wrote: »
    The term always fascinates me. You see Palin as "the far right." In your opinion what are 3-4 differences between "the far right" and "mainstream conservatives"?

    I have always taken the "far right" to apply more to European politics and describe those skirting or very close to neo-nazism/fascism in their views.

    Mainstream conservative values I would take as being a belief that the economy should be as free-market and unregulated as possible and that rich and poor should pay the same amount of taxes. Also a belief that the apparatus of government is basically flawed and wrong and should be reduced and its functions carried out by private companies.


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    #60
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #61
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 82,850 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    dave2pvd wrote: »
    Far right insists on 10 commandments in court houses
    Thats passed through congress at least once or twice and its unconstitutional, considering the first 4 commandments (in Catholicism):
    "I am the Lord your God, who brought you out of the land of Egypt, out of the house of slavery; you shall have no other gods before me. You shall not make for yourself an idol, whether in the form of anything that is in heaven above, or that is on the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth. You shall not bow down to them or worship them; for I the LORD your God am a jealous God, punishing children for the iniquity of parents, to the third and fourth generation of those who reject me, but showing steadfast love to the thousandth generation of those who love me and keep my commandments."
    "You shall not make wrongful use of the name of the LORD your God, for the LORD will not acquit anyone who misuses his name."
    "Observe the sabbath day and keep it holy, as the LORD your God commanded you. Six days you shall labor and do all your work. But the seventh day is a sabbath to the LORD your God; you shall not do any work—you, or your son or your daughter, or your male or female slave, or your ox or your donkey, or any of your livestock, or the resident alien in your towns, so that your male and female slave may rest as well as you. Remember that you were a slave in the land of Egypt, and the LORD your God brought you out from there with a mighty hand and an outstretched arm; therefore the LORD your God commanded you to keep the sabbath day."
    "Honor your father and your mother, as the LORD your God commanded you, so that your days may be long and that it may go well with you in the land that the LORD your God is giving you."

    The rest do not refer to The Lord Your God.
    But its unconstitutional; so they can try and pass it off all they want. I'll lose no sleep over their failed attempts.

    The one that always gets me is Creationism - its a religiously founded belief, why cant they be happy to teach it in Sunday School.


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