Fun, fun, fun, until daddy took the T-bird away

fuzzbox wrote:

Seems like a boring hands so .....

Results: He folded. .... well he thought, and then he folded.

77-TT is my guess, possibly with a spade.

your getting old and boring Fuzz.;)

Did you not consider just a normal C/R maybe make it 650 - 700, open push turn. I'd say looking at it you are both deep enough for another street of betting.

My problem with a CRAI is that the only hands that will call the CRAI is a hand that beats you, AsA, made flush, (possibly) trips, you also shut out any potential bluffs, it also allows JsJ, QsQ to get away from their hand.
Where as if you check raise the pot it might induce a Push (which I'd call, hoping not to see the nut flush) or allow a weaker hand to call such as JsJ, QsQ, etc.

But I suppose alot of how to play the hand is based on the Villain...

fuzzbox wrote:

MP bets $210[/color], Hero calls $1817 (All-In).

this looks a little likes the maximising your losses minimising your win push that i am prone 2 and oft berated for

fuzzbox wrote:

Its effectively making it 1250 to play.
A pot sized c/r is about 1000 to go.

Capice?

hey fuzz dude we all know that i like the push
pushing is always good in this spot for me as i tend to get called by worse hands a lot (again a by product of me pushing a lot )

but i am pretty sure in this spot before you advised a call quoting the maximising your losses minimizing your wins argument and your suggestion was call

OK, I actually said I'd make it 650 - 700 to go, (I realise I said pot later in the post, but that was just a wording error) but I'd probably more like making it 600 to go. meaning that it'd be about 400 for him to call, giving him 2.6:1 pot odds, and 4.4:1 implied odds, (as I'll always open push the turn whatever falls). It'll also leave him with about 700 behind so he can fold to the turn push if he wants

My thinking is there's a slightly better chance hands like JsJ, QsQ will play with those odds. And any hand that beats us it's doesn't matter what odds we offer as we're either drawing thin (made flush) or basically dead/ deadish (AsA, Asxs - [unlikely assuming you haven't been re-raising OOP often]).

Even if there's a 5% increased chance of him playing with JsJ, QsQ, (see below my other thinking for this) then there's more value in a smaller CR as opposed to a CRAI, as in that case I don't think anything is calling that we beat. But it's pretty much a moot point as I think the most value available with this hand and board, was really as played, i.e. check, induce a bet, then tell him what we have, (basically AsA or KsK), so it probably doesn't matter how much we raise.

My other reasons for thinking there might be a slightly better chance of a weaker hand continuing is that IMO it's easier for the Villain to Raise All-In than to call All-In with a weaker hand. Just the Gap Concept. I realise the Villain will probably realise he has little to no fold equity, but without much info on the Villain, as in this hand, my default is to assume that half decent players will make more mistakes by raising All-In rather than calling All-In (unless I've seen him making big calls like this previously).

Just my 0.02c, but as said above, it probably doesn't matter how much you raise, he's folding nearly everything that we beat. It's just my opinion that a smaller raise has a higher chance of getting a weaker hand to play on (or a donkey to push with a weaker hand) as opposed to a CRAI. Even if that chance is 4% then I think there's more value in that.

I also don't think this CRAI is a case of maximising losses as we're going to the felt with this hand regardless on the flop/turn and if he has us beat then it's just UL.

fuzzbox wrote:

Ste: all this presupposes that our villain doesnt realise that calling the 450 extra is pretty much the same as calling all-in with his QQ/JJ or whatever he has (although I dont even think he is as strong as QQ/JJ ... more like 88/77).

Given that he would have to call 500 or so on the turn into a 2k pot n all.

Yeah, I would have thought at this level they would understand that alright, I was just thinking as well as my reasoning behind the possibility of him pushing, there's also possibly a slight chance that he'll call and maybe take a gamble that he'll outdraw us here on the turn, (as our holding is pretty transparent), but all these things are just tiny possibilities as normally any player worth his salt, will realise this is effectively a CRAI, and play accordingly.

But one thing I hate to do, is to over-estimate an opponent, and although it is the same as a CRAI, I just think it's easier to call 400 then 1140. But it's pretty much an academic debate at this point, basically it comes down to which bet looks weaker depending on your table image and style of play, (although against any decent or indeed most 5/10 players both are the same) and as you say:

fuzzbox wrote:

and CRAI looks more like a AsKx play, maybe eliciting a call.

In which case the CRAI is better as it looks weaker, but as has been said before the CR basically ends the hand.

fuzzbox wrote:

I still dont know if bet flop, shove turn would have worked better, but I guess I have to have to do this every now and again in order to be at least a little unpredictable.

I'm in two minds as well, one thing I suppose the flop bet has going for it, is that it might look like a standard cont. bet on what is not a favourable board for a raiser, it might induce the Villain to make a play here, or at least to try to float, (in which case we can CRAI the turn), but again it would depend on your frequency of cont. betting, and it also is such a scary board that I'd say a huge % of the time the Villain just folds. I think there's probably more value generally in a CR here, but alot of my decision would depend on my image and my image of the Villain, as to which I'd do, but I could certainly play it both ways and I think against most known opponents the most profitable play would be clear.