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The Future for the Irish?

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  • 03-04-2010 9:14pm
    #1
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,686 ✭✭✭


    This post was inspired by this...
    It's about the only thing that truck was good for in the current FF administered economic climate, other than pouring concrete into the grave of an entire generation's hopes and dreams for a future in this country.

    I don't point this at the poster but his words got me thinking.

    When I started college back in the "good old days" (I did software engineering), the head lecturer told us that if we graduate, we WILL be assured a job and a 30 - 40k salary immediately. Now I rarely take what academics say seriously but even then, this sounded rather a little too good to be true.

    And it was, but not in the sense that my 100k a year egg-head was lying, no no, he was right but only in the context of the early 2000's.

    The above quote reminded me of this when he said "hopes and dreams for a future in this country". I've heard alot of that in the past few months and I'm wondering if, when people say there is no future in Ireland, are they thinking in term of a Celtic Tiger future? By this I mean coming straight out of college and onto 50k a year, or something similar.

    I'm still in my 20s but I don't believe that there is no future for me here. I'm not saying for a moment that I think my degree will land me a huge salary before I'm 30 but I think that there is still a perfectly good chance of a comfortable life here.

    Now I always lived very carfully. 75% of all the money I've ever erned, I still have because I knew that when a country is filled with people burning cash then there would be trouble to come, seems I was right. All I want from life is a roof over my head, food, heat and a few small treats now and then. For personal reasons I won't get into, I've no intentions of having a wife/family so most likely, my take on this is coloured in that regard.

    So what do people think? Are the masses still thinking in terms of the boom years or is there no future here at all for what I have heard described as the "lost generation"?


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    #2
    hiorta
    Closed Accounts Posts: 457 ✭✭hiorta


    There is always a future, though it depends on what you seek from Life. If you measure such things in monetary wealth and status, then it seems as if a period of re-balancing is going to be necessary with corresponding reductions in income.


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    #3
    Spudmonkey
    Registered Users Posts: 2,891 ✭✭✭Spudmonkey


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    I'm still in my 20s but I don't believe that there is no future for me here. I'm not saying for a moment that I think my degree will land me a huge salary before I'm 30 but I think that there is still a perfectly good chance of a comfortable life here.

    Now I always lived very carfully. 75% of all the money I've ever erned, I still have because I knew that when a country is filled with people burning cash then there would be trouble to come, seems I was right. All I want from life is a roof over my head, food, heat and a few small treats now and then. For personal reasons I won't get into, I've no intentions of having a wife/family so most likely, my take on this is coloured in that regard.

    So what do people think? Are the masses still thinking in terms of the boom years or is there no future here at all for what I have heard described as the "lost generation"?

    You've just described me!! Mad!

    Seen as the boom years were nothing other than one huge deception, I don't think we would ever want them back. I still don't think many people have come to terms with the current situation and maybe it's only in the next few years that it will really sink home.

    And of all the people who are worst off, I think the lost generation you described are the best off, single professionals with a few years experience and not tied down to any particular place.


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    #4
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    This post was inspired by this...



    I don't point this at the poster but his words got me thinking.

    When I started college back in the "good old days" (I did software engineering), the head lecturer told us that if we graduate, we WILL be assured a job and a 30 - 40k salary immediately. Now I rarely take what academics say seriously but even then, this sounded rather a little too good to be true.

    And it was, but not in the sense that my 100k a year egg-head was lying, no no, he was right but only in the context of the early 2000's.

    The above quote reminded me of this when he said "hopes and dreams for a future in this country". I've heard alot of that in the past few months and I'm wondering if, when people say there is no future in Ireland, are they thinking in term of a Celtic Tiger future? By this I mean coming straight out of college and onto 50k a year, or something similar.

    I'm still in my 20s but I don't believe that there is no future for me here. I'm not saying for a moment that I think my degree will land me a huge salary before I'm 30 but I think that there is still a perfectly good chance of a comfortable life here.

    Now I always lived very carfully. 75% of all the money I've ever erned, I still have because I knew that when a country is filled with people burning cash then there would be trouble to come, seems I was right. All I want from life is a roof over my head, food, heat and a few small treats now and then. For personal reasons I won't get into, I've no intentions of having a wife/family so most likely, my take on this is coloured in that regard.

    So what do people think? Are the masses still thinking in terms of the boom years or is there no future here at all for what I have heard described as the "lost generation"?

    Describing them as a "lost generation" is vaguely amusing if you're a member of any of the previous "lost generations". When I was at college in the Eighties our lecturers didn't even bother discussing our graduate job prospects in terms of Ireland - there were, quite simply, none whatsoever. When I graduated, Ireland's unemployment rate was 17.1%, and graduate unemployment was 18.6% after factoring in the 13% of graduates who emigrated immediately on graduation - of all graduates employed nine months after graduation, a third were employed abroad.

    To put those figures in perspective - the current Irish unemployment rate is 12.7%, and graduate unemployment is 6-7%.

    Also, we used to have to get up before we'd gone to bed, work down mill for 36 hours a day, pay mill owner for privilege...

    and so on,
    Scofflaw


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    #5
    flynnlives
    Registered Users Posts: 739 ✭✭✭flynnlives


    There is the "debt generation" tho. The people who bought the 35 year 100% mortgages which are now in negative equity.
    I have a loan of a couple of grand, no worries, nothing to tie me down etc. The above people are screwed for the rest of there lives.
    There most have homes have now become never leave prison cells imo.
    Its shocking really.


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    #6
    bad2dabone
    Registered Users Posts: 6,333 ✭✭✭bad2dabone


    I think we've got a future, at least I want to believe we have! :D
    But I hope we use this recession as an opportunity to overhaul certain aspects of our society.


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    #7
    hiorta
    Closed Accounts Posts: 457 ✭✭hiorta


    ""the boom years were nothing other than one huge deception"" Spudmonkey.

    They always are illusory.

    I'm wondering as to how and why Ireland became victim to such mass hysteria?
    Was it subtly engineered and by whom?
    Who gained from it all?
    Was it an inside job?


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    #8
    Amhran Nua
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Amhran Nua


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    To put those figures in perspective - the current Irish unemployment rate is 12.7%, and graduate unemployment is 6-7%.
    Good to see a dose of reality in the midst of the cries to abandon ship. We've still got a lot going on in this country, and a lot to fight for - change can happen if enough people want it.


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    #9
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,686 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Seems I'm not alone in my assumption, which isn't surprising. I think we, the irish, just got used to the idea of a job finding the job seeker and not the other way around.

    I think RTE and the media in general are guilty of sowing hysteria amongst the people. But then again, good news is never really as interesting as bad news.

    Personally, I'd be perfectly happy with a 20k a year job and that's just as well because it's what I'll be getting :).


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    #10
    Spudmonkey
    Registered Users Posts: 2,891 ✭✭✭Spudmonkey


    hiorta wrote: »
    They always are illusory.

    I'm wondering as to how and why Ireland became victim to such mass hysteria?
    Was it subtly engineered and by whom?
    Who gained from it all?
    Was it an inside job?

    Ignorance? The ordinary Irish person probably didn't stop and think where Ireland's "wealth" had come from. All they saw were their friends getting new cars and houses and decided they wanted a bit of that.


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    #11
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,686 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Spudmonkey wrote: »
    Ignorance? The ordinary Irish person probably didn't stop and think where Ireland's "wealth" had come from. All they saw were their friends getting new cars and houses and decided they wanted a bit of that.


    Of course they knew, it came from the magic money fairy that only Bertie Ahern could see :rolleyes:.


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    #12
    anglo_celt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 53 ✭✭anglo_celt


    The Future for the Irish is within the European Union. That's right we voted to join the EEC back in 1973. And now the Lisbon Treaty most of us said Yes. Oh I well know that many of you did not bother or could not care €2.00 but we are in now and that's it. A United Ireland with Britain and twenty-five other countries nations and people. Sure we could not rule ourselves. The Brits ruled for nearly 700 years. The Danes and The Nomans before that. And dont forget the Vikings. Now we are together again.


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    #13
    Pittens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭Pittens


    anglo_celts version of history is somewhat suspect.

    the future for people graduating is actually ok. Most of the job losses are in construction. Graduate employment is 94-94%. Housing is cheaper. Disposable income will be higer.

    It is your immediate elders who are screwed.


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    #14
    Eliot Rosewater
    Registered Users Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭Eliot Rosewater


    The problem is that the Government used the years of the boom to increase Government spending here, there and everywhere, particularly on social welfare. This has sowed a massive culture of entitlement whereby people feel it is the Government's job to give them all these services for nothing, and that if they don't then they're out to get them. Or something.

    The boom and all the tax money are gone; the culture of entitlement is here to stay. I think it's going to cripple Ireland into the future. People aren't willing to take rationale reductions in Government services and spending. People aren't willing to take social welfare reductions even if those cuts are less than reductions in the cost of living. Its all about protecting your own vested interests against the rest of the country. How can we become competitive again if Ireland is enslaved to this attitude?


    I've been having a very heated debate over in the UCC forum with fellow students of mine who are giving out about a recently introduced €65 conferring charge. It quickly developed into discussion on fees as a whole. I suggested that we pay a graduate tax after we finish to recoup some of the monetary costs of our education, to which was replied "Why should we punish people for going to college?" This is really the heart of the matter; people feel they have a right to be getting all these things for free and any suggestion the contrary is labeled "unfair". Or something.

    In terms of education specifically, I see this attitude holding back Ireland's Universities. Third level education in this country cannot greatly improve unless students pay more, but because they're "entitled" to it for nothing it's going nowhere. What matters is not the degree, but rather the getting it for free.


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    #15
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    For me the noughties was the lost decade. Too much was put into stuff that would never generate an income and that's what FFers and their moron supporters don't get but are still trying resuscitate.

    We're in Europe and that's where my future lies. The current regime see their powers decrease and now desperately want to hold on to what they got through NAMA, hence the secrecy about any banking inquiry.

    The people I'm angriest with though is the general public, too much apathy and little or no thinking. Everytime I hear "ah sure no one could have seen Lehman brothers coming" from people, it only makes more resolute to move on from here. If they can not learn to think for themselves after the last ten years, then they will keep falling for everything.

    Thanks but I'd rather not hang around. I did my time on the dole in the late eighties and early nineties, I'm solvent and am preparing to wipe the dust of this gombeen infested backwater of Europe off the soles of my shoes.

    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice.............


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    #16
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Pittens wrote: »
    the future for people graduating is actually ok.

    your joking right?

    who do you think will be paying back via taxes (which will increase) and reduced services for next 2 decades

    for the mess produced by the "elders"


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    #17
    Pittens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭Pittens


    who do you think will be paying back via taxes (which will increase) and reduced services for next 2 decades

    Taxes may increase but they would have to be pretty feckin enormous to offset the monthly cost of a house bought in the next few years viz the same house bought in the last 5 years. Hence if you have a job you will be better off, in terms of disposable income. Or better off in terms of quality of housing, or both.

    ( although people should stay out of the market for a few years).


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    #18
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Pittens wrote: »
    Taxes may increase but they would have to be pretty feckin enormous to offset the monthly cost of a house bought in the next few years viz the same house bought in the last 5 years. Hence if you have a job you will be better off, in terms of disposable income. Or better off in terms of quality of housing, or both.

    ( although people should stay out of the market for a few years).

    yes they will be fairly "pretty feckin enormous" one way or the other (directly and indirectly)

    read this > http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/03/economics-29032010-ps-productivity-deal.html
    Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev wrote:
    Per latest reports on the talks with the Unions, it now appears that the Government will yield on the Budget 2010 pay cuts and accept a premise that our vast structural deficit can be corrected through a long-term change in work practices in the public sector.

    This position represents a drastic reversal of the attempted correction of the structural deficit and has the following long-run implications for Ireland:


    1. Since productivity gains do not address the issue of reducing actual spend in the public sector, the entire burden of correcting the structural deficit can be expected to fall on the shoulders of the taxpayers;

    2. If the deal commits the Government to no future cuts in public spending in Budgets 2011-2013, the deal will mean that the entire €13-14 billion in Budget adjustments needed before 2014 will have to be carried by the Irish taxpayers. This means taxes will have to rise by a massive €13,000 per annum per current tax payer - a move that would trigger a meltdown in the economy;

    3. Since higher earning taxpayers are already paying more than half of the income tax bill, the new taxes will have to disproportionately impact lower middle classes, thus in effect inflicting pain on the very workers whom the unions are allegedly aiming to protect;

    4. Since the structural deficit will remain unaddressed, Ireland will not reach 3% deficit target by 2014, or for that matter by 2020, implying that we will be facing excruciatingly high cost of borrowing through the next 10 years or so, a cost, once again to be carried by our middle and lower-middle classes.
    Using a simple prisoners' dilemma game, one can easily show that the Government currently has all the incentives to run the economy deeper into depression. Such a move will ensure that the poisoned chalice the current Government passes to the opposition will be even more toxic, thus giving Fianna Fail stronger chances of election victory in the next 5 years.

    In other words, if the Government does indeed sign up to the unions'-conjured 'plan' for 'efficiency'-exit from the deficit, it will be implicitly acting to derail any hope of a fiscal and economic recovery, while optimising its own political objectives.


    dont forget that for next 10 years we will be paying between 5 and 10 billion in debt service alone which is a third of income, something that wasnt there before, just to service existing debt

    you really dont comprehend the scale of the pile of poop this country has been driven into

    to say that the people in their 20s will not bear the brunt of this mess is plain wrong, the only way out for them is to leave

    /


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    #19
    restaurants
    Closed Accounts Posts: 102 ✭✭restaurants


    bad2dabone wrote: »
    I think we've got a future, at least I want to believe we have! :D
    But I hope we use this recession as an opportunity to overhaul certain aspects of our society.
    Of course we have a future.
    Lets learn from what has been done over the past months.
    We will come out if it stronger.
    There will be a lot of necessary reform and no harm....


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    #20
    dan_d
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    Did anyone else read this piece?

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0401/1224267465668.html

    It was in last thursday's times, and I found it by chance the other day. I thought it was actually rather good.

    I'm looking for a job at the moment, and there are a surprising number of jobs out there. It's not easy by any means, but nor is it as dead as people - well, the media - seem to make out. My problem is knowing what to pitch my salary expectations at. I've said before in another thread, I know my experience, my outgoings and what I'm currently on, but it's hard to know what to look for in a salary. And believe me, I've got fairly modest expectations, I'm not looking to earn a fortune.

    I don't the the future is as bleak as we think. I do think we need to get a hold on our media and make them understand that they need to stop preaching doom and gloom and try and help the situation (given that they fanned the flames of the whole property mess in the first place). I do think we need to make the absolute most of this opportunity to regulate our financial institutions, and tighten the reins a LOT on how we do business (regardless of what Quinn thinks). Pulling ourselves out of this and most importantly learning from it, would be more of a feat than the Celtic Tiger in the first place. And I do think we need to look at the types of industry we encourage, and if there's a way to rely more on manufacturing as opposed to exporting. We also need to take a long hard look at our political parties and what they get up to.

    In short, it is an opportunity to improve, if we don't waste it. But it is going to be hard for the next couple of years.


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    #21
    Spudmonkey
    Registered Users Posts: 2,891 ✭✭✭Spudmonkey


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    Of course they knew, it came from the magic money fairy that only Bertie Ahern could see :rolleyes:.

    Sure we all know now Bertie had his own magic money fairies!!

    But seriously I would know people who would view a little coffee shop to add every bit as much to the economy as a small IT company writing software for companies abroad. While I'm not saying that it's not important from the point of keeping people earning and off the dole, which one of these adds more to the economy??


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    #22
    Pittens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭Pittens


    While I'm not saying that it's not important from the point of keeping people earning and off the dole, which one of these adds more to the economy??

    Anything externally tradable does, as you know.

    Dan_D is correct. I dont know anybody who is unemployed, or in danger. All the froth from 2001 will be wiped out, and all the GDP, and we will get back to where we were then in terms of employment ( with more people in the country however, higher unemployment). Export led jobs, IT jobs etc. seem safe enough to me.
    This means taxes will have to rise by a massive €13,000 per annum per current tax payer - a move that would trigger a meltdown in the economy;

    All that has to happen for cuts to happen is this statistic to be announced. People will then support reductions in Public Service pay, and staffing levels - even more than they do now. Certainly 13K a year per taxpayer will cripple the economy, so it won't happen.


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    #23
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Pittens wrote: »
    Export led jobs, IT jobs etc. seem safe enough to me.

    see this
    Job losses come from just four sectors
    Almost 95% of job losses in the last two years have come from less than half the economy. The economy shed 250,000 jobs between late 2007 and late 2009. Just over half of that has come from construction, with the wholesale/retail, manufacturing and agriculture sectors comprising just short of 20%, 15% and 10% respectively.
    The rest of the economy – including about 670,000 private sector jobs and 500,000 public sector jobs – has almost completely escaped large-scale job losses. There were 1.16m people employed in these sectors in late 2007. By late 2009, that number had fallen to 1.15m. True, there are some differences within this group. For example, the tourism sector did lose 12% of its jobs during 2008 – but in fact bounced back almost 5% during 2009, despite the strength of the euro. The somewhat nebulous “Administrative and support services” sector has also fared badly. But overall, these sectors have escaped.
    Incidentally, public sector employment looks to have finally levelled off. Having jumped 24,000 during 2008, numbers employed in the civil service, education and health fell by 400 during 2009, a fall in education offsetting a further rise in health. The sectors which are the source of the 250,000 jobs losses over the last two years are outlined in the graph below. (To reinforce the point, the “other” catch-all sector is large: from about four times the size of wholesale/retail to about ten times the size of agriculture.)


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    #24
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,686 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    That's an interesting article ei.sdraob. Seems there will be plenty of women around in a few years for eligible young bachelors like myself :rolleyes:

    On a serious side, this shows what I've kind of suspected. Jack o'connor was on the radio on saturday and he called Ireland "a failed economy" or a "ruined economy", I can recall which but the meaning is the same. My view is that the jobs lost, some of them, only existed as part of the false boom and really were just built on sand.

    I'm sure that comes as no comfort too anyone without a job reading this but I think the "jobless" economy is being talked up by the media. In my view, there are jobs out there, they just are hard to get.


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    #25
    recedite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    read this > http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/03/economics-29032010-ps-productivity-deal.html




    dont forget that for next 10 years we will be paying between 5 and 10 billion in debt service alone which is a third of income, something that wasnt there before, just to service existing debt

    you really dont comprehend the scale of the pile of poop this country has been driven into

    to say that the people in their 20s will not bear the brunt of this mess is plain wrong, the only way out for them is to leave

    /
    "Using a simple prisoners' dilemma game, one can easily show that the Government currently has all the incentives to run the economy deeper into depression. Such a move will ensure that the poisoned chalice the current Government passes to the opposition will be even more toxic, thus giving Fianna Fail stronger chances of election victory in the next 5 years.

    In other words, if the Government does indeed sign up to the unions'-conjured 'plan' for 'efficiency'-exit from the deficit, it will be implicitly acting to derail any hope of a fiscal and economic recovery, while optimising its own political objectives."


    Looks like TREASON rears its ugly head again


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    #26
    Pittens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭Pittens


    Fianna Fail tend to look after themselves, alright. I think of the Tallaght stragedy and realise that FG think of the country occasionally.

    Thats a tough call for me as I am more nationalistic than most Irish people these days, but it is what it is.


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    #27
    Transcendence
    Registered Users Posts: 1 ✭Transcendence


    Trying to get my head around how we stand I came across these figures.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
    Ireland's numbers are much much worse now.
    I'm not an economist but there is no way every man, woman & child will repay a million in their lifetime.
    I think we are probably being suckered again
    It's the old "I have complete confidence in " etc. etc.
    Send the fool further.
    Maybe better brains than me can comment.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt


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    #28
    Sand
    Registered Users Posts: 12,580 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    IIRC the trillion dollar debt figure for Ireland includes the debt of the MNCs who declare their residency here for tax purposes. Its misleading to include it as "Irish" debt. However its true to say Irelands debt, both public and private is pretty harsh and/or getting worse. And who knows, given Brian Lenihan has never seen a runaway train he hasnt pushed the taxpayer under, he might go all out and start guaranteeing the debts of MNCs as well. Sure, why not?

    Things are pretty grim - comparisons with the 1980s ignore the amount of debt people are in now, as opposed to then, and ignore that emigration was an option then, and is not so much now. It also ignores that the 1980s were generally a period of economic development globally, whereas major economies are struggling and the prospect of sovereign defaults loom over the developed economies.

    What hasnt changed is that the government is still wholly and utterly concerned with the insiders - themselves, the trade unions, their friends in the semi states, the protected proffessions. These are the priority, both then and now.


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    #29
    zootroid
    Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    restaurants wrote: »
    Of course we have a future.
    Lets learn from what has been done over the past months.
    We will come out if it stronger.
    There will be a lot of necessary reform and no harm....

    But we don't learn!!!! This isn't the first time financial institutions had to be bailed out by the state. In the 80's there was PMPA, and ICI, the subsidiary of AIB. There was also that bank that Ken Bates was involved in. I can't remember the specifics, but I remember reading about a property bubble involving farmland in the 70's.

    So our problems were mostly of our own doing, and quite simply should not have happened. When this mess is sorted out (which will take years) there will simply be a new generation who won't quite remember this recession, and a similar situation will happen. But that will be years down the line, 10 or maybe even 20. In the meantime we will all have to pay dearly for the mistakes that were made, which simply should not have happened.


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    #30
    View
    Registered Users Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭View


    zootroid wrote: »
    But we don't learn!!!! This isn't the first time financial institutions had to be bailed out by the state. In the 80's there was PMPA, and ICI, the subsidiary of AIB. There was also that bank that Ken Bates was involved in. I can't remember the specifics, but I remember reading about a property bubble involving farmland in the 70's.

    So our problems were mostly of our own doing, and quite simply should not have happened. When this mess is sorted out (which will take years) there will simply be a new generation who won't quite remember this recession, and a similar situation will happen. But that will be years down the line, 10 or maybe even 20. In the meantime we will all have to pay dearly for the mistakes that were made, which simply should not have happened.

    Spot on. I wonder how much will be owed when the financial institutions crash in the 2030s. :)


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    #31
    pierrot
    Registered Users Posts: 634 ✭✭✭pierrot


    Yes, it should not have happened, but it did. It could have been so much better, but they screwed it up.
    Re: OP, if you`re in the same boat as me, we could be the luckiest generation in recent Irish history.
    Lucky because we didn`t go nuts and buy a house for half a million quid.
    Lucky because we saw it all happen and won`t do the same in ten years time.
    Lucky because got a degree after four years of comfortable college life and now don`t have a penny of debt.


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