Is the global economy on the verge of the biggest collapse ever?

Jimmy Garlic · 14-01-2016 7:23pm #1

If the Baltic Dry Index is anything to go by then things are looking very bleak. It stands at 394 today and it is consistently falling every single day. It stood at 11000 just before the 2008 crash. The more I look into things the more ominous the picture becomes...

The foreign media bring a deplorable fact: transatlantic transportation stopped almost completely and virtually now.
According to foreign media reports, the current location of all ships in the Atlantic shows that currently they are grouped around the coastlines of different continents. The central part of the Atlantic ocean is free from the vessels.

In confirmation of these words the media bring the data of websites marinetraffic.com, superstation95.com, yournewswire.com. According to their data, for the first time in known history no one cargo ship crosses the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. They are all either offshore or in port. Nothing is moving.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/transatlantic-shipping-stops/

MilesMorales1 · 14-01-2016 7:26pm

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

SEPT 23 1989 · 14-01-2016 7:28pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

If the Baltic Dry Index is anything to go by then things are looking very bleak. It stands at 394 today and it is consistently falling every single day. It stood at 11000 just before the 2008 crash. The more I look into things the more ominous the picture becomes...

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/transatlantic-shipping-stops/

Didn't think things were so bad

Menas · 14-01-2016 7:29pm

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

Another thread may help.

Amirani · 14-01-2016 7:45pm

Probably not.

kneemos · 14-01-2016 7:46pm

It's quiet.

Too quiet.

melissak · 14-01-2016 7:46pm

I'd say the biggest ever might turn out to be an overstatement.

Jimmy Garlic · 14-01-2016 7:51pm

Amirani wrote: »

Probably not.

RBS are telling their clients to dump everything except bonds..

In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

desertcircus · 14-01-2016 7:52pm

1. Snopes has already produced a debunking of the "no shipping at all" panic.

2. A prize for the OP if they can explain in three sentences what the relationship between the Baltic Dry index and the global economy actually is.

Corpus Twisty · 14-01-2016 7:56pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

If the Baltic Dry Index is anything to go by then things are looking very bleak. It stands at 394 today and it is consistently falling every single day. It stood at 11000 just before the 2008 crash. The more I look into things the more ominous the picture becomes...

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/transatlantic-shipping-stops/

A glance at the Road Freight industry, the exports side especially, shows record numbers of trailers parked up in ireland...not turning a wheel. Which is never, ever, a good sign...the huge drop in the price of a barrel of crude isn't likley to be down to pure politics either...crap demand is another factor there....

Sheeps · 14-01-2016 7:59pm

Its happening tomorrow. Tomorrow is the day the world economy will cease to exist. All the wealth will disappear. Gone forever.

Harry Palmr · 14-01-2016 7:59pm

Corpus Twisty wrote: »

A glance at the Road Freight industry, the exports side especially, shows record numbers of trailers parked up in ireland...not turning a wheel. Which is never, ever, a good sign...

Probably on a boat...that isn't moving...;)

Amirani · 14-01-2016 8:02pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

RBS are telling their clients to dump everything except bonds..

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

Yeah, read that a few days ago - I am an RBS derivative and fixed income client :P

While there's certainly something to be said for being risk-averse in the current environment, particularly with respect to emerging markets, I don't really see them causing "the biggest collapse ever". Europe and North America are reasonably well insulated against large corrections in emerging markets. I'd be a bit more weary about commodities and the likes of Australia.

Jimmy Garlic · 14-01-2016 8:05pm

desertcircus wrote: »

prize for the OP if they can explain in three sentences what the relationship between the Baltic Dry index and the global economy actually is.

It is a difficult to manipulate real-time indicator that reflects global demand for commodities and raw materials. It increases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods increases, and decreases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods decreases.

kneemos · 14-01-2016 8:08pm

The economists will tell us nothing is going to happen and then tell us what happened when it does.

Duckworth_Luas · 14-01-2016 8:09pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

RBS are telling their clients to dump everything except bonds.

My girlfriend works for RBS. She just sent me a text message.

Fat bitch!

darkpagandeath · 14-01-2016 8:11pm

Fastest growing economy in the EZ Rar rar.

mad muffin · 14-01-2016 8:32pm

The global economy is such a fûcking con. It's designed to make the rich richer and the rest poorer.

This boom and bust cycle with the rich coming back even richer and the rest of us pay for it. :rolleyes:

Jimmy Garlic · 14-01-2016 8:38pm

mad muffin wrote: »

The global economy is such a fûcking con. It's designed to make the rich richer and the rest poorer.

This boom and bust cycle with the rich coming back even richer and the rest of us pay for it. :rolleyes:

The big bank boys who always win call it a ''haircut'', but what they really mean is they are fleecing the public. Wealth isn't disappearing, it is concentrating into fewer and fewer hands.

mad muffin · 14-01-2016 8:52pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

The big bank boys who always win call it a ''haircut'', but what they really mean is they are fleecing the public. Wealth isn't disappearing, it is concentrating into fewer and fewer hands.

Pretty much.

You appear as honorable man yet attempt to slip cock in ass. -Batiatus

deathtocaptcha · 14-01-2016 11:05pm

The value of things could go up or they could go down. What unprecedented and unpredictable times we live in...

TallGlass · 15-01-2016 12:19am

I don't care about the rich getting richer to be honest, and I don't like working my arse off for hardly anything either.

But what really gets to me is how mean spirited and tight these people are, they won't give anything back and it's an absolute drain on society.

Take for example the Amazon owner he is worth 40 billion euros, he could spend 2 billion on making Amazon a great place to work and pay low paid workers an excellent wage not seen for there jobs. Everyone would be happy, and you know what? He would be still worth 38 billion and I would put money on it, if the staff are happy and know there paid well then you'll recoup that money in performance.

KomradeBishop · 15-01-2016 12:56am

Basically, China's economy is - for the most part - very opaque, people can't get a good read on its health, but it's been very skitterish for a long time now (looking like it's at the 'frothing' stage of a bubble ready to pop).

Now that it's finally popping, nobody knows how bad the results are going to be (opaque), which means everyone in the financial markets is running around with skidmarks, trying to dump all assets likely to be affected - i.e. all of them.

Volatility like this is a dream for financial market participants ready to take advantage of it, and a lot of vested interests are going to do the absolute best they can, to stoke fear and scaremongering in the media and markets, in order to make the market swings as big as possible - so if you're reading from any financial outlets with a vested interest in this, you're probably reading bullshít designed to scare.

That's just short-term in the markets though; medium/long-term, this means China's economy is about to slow down significantly (unless they do what nobody else did: a massive stimulus. Possible, given that they are pretty much a command-economy, without the NeoLiberal/Austerity ideological baggage of 'the west') - and because China is so big, this means an economic slowdown for the whole world.

Enter deflation: Central banks like the Fed and ECB have been trying to avoid deflation, by using QE - and this has failed massively, with ever-diminishing returns - and now the slowdown from China, is going to permanently dip western economies into deflation (unless they do the so-far-unspeakable step, of ditching austerity and engaging in a massive stimulus).

Permanent deflation means ever-increasing wealth/income inequality, which is going to skyrocket and become a permanent part of our economies/societies, and the influence over politics granted by this power, is going to pose an ever-greater threat to democracy itself.

The only way out that's left now, for avoiding that, is a massive stimulus through public funding - something that still seems to remain unspeakable, up to now.

Corpus Twisty · 15-01-2016 1:07am

TallGlass wrote: »

I don't care about the rich getting richer to be honest, and I don't like working my arse off for hardly anything either.

But what really gets to me is how mean spirited and tight these people are, they won't give anything back and it's an absolute drain on society.

Take for example the Amazon owner he is worth 40 billion euros, he could spend 2 billion on making Amazon a great place to work and pay low paid workers an excellent wage not seen for there jobs. Everyone would be happy, and you know what? He would be still worth 38 billion and I would put money on it, if the staff are happy and know there paid well then you'll recoup that money in performance.

Blimey. Amazon has actually started making money?? I thought they lost their ar5e year after year, but were constantly propped up with new funding, in the hope some day they would be the last one standing.

Atlantic Dawn · 15-01-2016 1:09am

2 minute look on Marinetraffic...
Rio Blackwater - On route from Halifax Canada to Cagliari Italy
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:757458/zoom:10

Charleston Express - On route from Southampton UK to Charleston US
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:439001/zoom:10

Bog standard AIS only works based on land based receivers so it will never show ships mid atlantic.

LETHAL LADY · 15-01-2016 1:17am

I studied finance and tbh I'd still recommend to hide all your money in a mattress.

nyarlothothep · 15-01-2016 1:17am

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Basically, China's economy is - for the most part - very opaque, people can't get a good read on its health, but it's been very skitterish for a long time now (looking like it's at the 'frothing' stage of a bubble ready to pop).

Now that it's finally popping, nobody knows how bad the results are going to be (opaque), which means everyone in the financial markets is running around with skidmarks, trying to dump all assets likely to be affected - i.e. all of them.

Volatility like this is a dream for financial market participants ready to take advantage of it, and a lot of vested interests are going to do the absolute best they can, to stoke fear and scaremongering in the media and markets, in order to make the market swings as big as possible - so if you're reading from any financial outlets with a vested interest in this, you're probably reading bullshít designed to scare.

That's just short-term in the markets though; medium/long-term, this means China's economy is about to slow down significantly (unless they do what nobody else did: a massive stimulus. Possible, given that they are pretty much a command-economy, without the NeoLiberal/Austerity ideological baggage of 'the west') - and because China is so big, this means an economic slowdown for the whole world.

Enter deflation: Central banks like the Fed and ECB have been trying to avoid deflation, by using QE - and this has failed massively, with ever-diminishing returns - and now the slowdown from China, is going to permanently dip western economies into deflation (unless they do the so-far-unspeakable step, of ditching austerity and engaging in a massive stimulus).

Permanent deflation means ever-increasing wealth/income inequality, which is going to skyrocket and become a permanent part of our economies/societies, and the influence over politics granted by this power, is going to pose an ever-greater threat to democracy itself.

The only way out that's left now, for avoiding that, is a massive stimulus through public funding - something that still seems to remain unspeakable, up to now.

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks this is all part of the plan, democratic institutions are irritations for the world's elite, irc American industrialists attempted a fascist coup in the early twentieth century. So it's a win win, we already have surveillance as a permanent part of our societies, why not virtual tyranny?

Palbear · 15-01-2016 1:22am

I spent a very long time trading financial markets and
when I say a long time, it was many years.

What I learned.
There is no magic ball. Nobody knows what happens next.

But there is a balance of probability. And that is always your best bet.

As for stock market crashes.......... they can happen anytime.
and they do. Irrational events.

My view : don't hold equities now. Global QE is a new dimension.
An abundance of liquidity trying to find a home for yield
is not a valid reason for stock market appreciation.
For no good reason I don't feel comfortable.
Nor would I hold dollars either. Too many in circulation and
over valued.

But I may be wrong

Sterling looks vulnerable.
Brexit will be a market issue.
maybe.

madmaggie · 15-01-2016 1:30am

But we're alright, we have Enda.......

TallGlass · 15-01-2016 1:34am

Corpus Twisty wrote: »

Blimey. Amazon has actually started making money?? I thought they lost their ar5e year after year, but were constantly propped up with new funding, in the hope some day they would be the last one standing.

Could you expand a little on not making money? I haven't looked at Amazons profits or losses, I know the owner is worth 40 billion last time I checked. I also don't think they are short on cash, seen as they are looking at heading into the air freight business and logistic solution area with the spending on leasing out Boeing aircraft to stop delays in supply chain to customers.

kneemos · 15-01-2016 1:38am

TallGlass wrote: »

Could you expand a little on not making money? I haven't looked at Amazons profits or losses, I know the owner is worth 40 billion last time I checked. I also don't think they are short on cash, seen as they are looking at heading into the air freight business and logistic solution area with the spending on leasing out Boeing aircraft to stop delays in supply chain to customers.

Forty billion in assets.Should he close down a sector of his empire to give Amazon workers a nicer canteen?

Is the global economy on the verge of the biggest collapse ever?

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