Winter 2011/2012

Su Campu

Well all the sites we use for viewing models allow us to ANIMAte consecutive charts.....so maybe there IS something to this animal thing afterall! It's been there staring us in the face all this time!!!

snow ghost

patneve2 wrote: »

having said that i think animals can sense if cold weather is coming, but i wouldnt say more than 10 days in advance...

My weather crow is fairly accurate, yesterday he indicated that many stations wouldn't reach double figures today as Su identified above (sometime after the crow it must be noted).

It must be remembered that we humans are animals - some more than others - and unlike our feathered friends generally our lives are not at risk as much from the weather, if they were we may be more atuned to its vagaries.

Take an ancient aboriginal nomad who lived in the bush, he was more copped on to what was happening around him with the weather than any computer model.

As for 10 days who knows.

Lucreto

Rabidlamb wrote: »

About 50 weeks ago, South Kildare, 16" of Snow.
The young lad thought he'd go for a stroll out the back.

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I cut the grass yesterday & had to empty the box twice.
What a difference a year makes.

Naas has similar conditions last year. It was amazing watching it get deeper and deeper.

My garden table was like your one. I called it the pudding and it was 30cm deep at the most.

WolfeIRE

Interesting one from WSI...

WSI (Weather Services International), the company behind the Weather Channel, this week said it expects temperatures for December to average lower than normal across Ireland and Britain. Temperatures during January and February are expected to average higher than normal.

“So far, November has clearly been quite mild across most of Europe. While no immediate change to this pattern is expected, we do foresee a trend towards colder temperatures across western Europe and the UK in December,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford.

more

touts

I could do that.

My forecast: November has been unusually mild. Based on that and on historical trends I think December just might be colder than November.

WolfeIRE

touts wrote: »

I could do that.

My forecast: November has been unusually mild. Based on that and on historical trends I think December just might be colder than November.

What would you say for Jan and Feb? Do you agree or disagree with WSI's warmer than average temps prediction for both Jan and Feb?

weathermaiden

touts wrote: »

I could do that.

My forecast: November has been unusually mild. Based on that and on historical trends I think December just might be colder than November.

If you want your 15 minutes of fame I can send this to the Daily Mail... :pac:

rhonin

touts wrote: »

I could do that.

My forecast: November has been unusually mild. Based on that and on historical trends I think December just might be colder than November.

You should be charging for that forecast. :pac:

only one

When is joe bastardi going to update his winter forecast does anyone know?

Iancar29

only one wrote: »

When is joe bastardi going to update his winter forecast does anyone know?

i just text him there , he get right on it for ya now pal... :rolleyes:

only one

Thanks James madden

dsmythy

touts wrote: »

I could do that.

My forecast: November has been unusually mild. Based on that and on historical trends I think December just might be colder than November.

Except the guys who wrote that forecast said December would be below average. As in below an average December..... Not that I'd pay much heed to any long range forecast at the moment. Everyone saying different things really.

bb1234567

1-Piers Corbyn-Weather Action - an extreme cold period with huge snowfalls from 27th November to 28th December.

2-James Madden-Exacta Weather - a very severe winter with temperature and snow fall records being beaten. He thinks All winter months will be excpetionally cold and all of uk will receive huge volumes of snow.

3-Mark Vogan - cold setting in Mid December followed by an exceptionally cold January. An exceptionally cold and snowy winter as a whole.

4-Climate Prediction Centre based in America- They were the ones to forecast the return of the la nina and they think this la nina will cause a very cold winter in uk across the entire northern hemisphere--http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/another-harsh-winter-is-expected-as-la-nina-returns/

5-Brian Gaze-The Weather Outlook-Admits he really has no idea right now. At first thought itd be mild winter,then very cold now not sure.But specifically told people who like snow to not worry. Said this winter could be very severe and if it is, he thinks it'll begin in new years like 1946/47 did, but also said there's a chance this winter could be mild too.

6-Joe Bastardi-Weather Bell -Very cold but not as severe as last year, but more prolonged cold than last year,all winter months below average temps and high amounts of snowfall.Thinks the more prolonged but less severe cold could give us more snow than last year over course of winter.

7-AccuWeather - Mild Winter with little snow.

9-WeatherOnline - A very cold winter, similar to Mark Vogans forecast, with cold setting in Mid December followed by a severely cold January.

10-Met Office/BBC - No longer issue long range forecasts so they dont really count, but they have said that they dont think this winter will be as severe as everyone says its going to be.

11-Positive Weather Solutions - talk of an extremely cold end to the month followed by a very cold December. Avery cold winter as a whole.

12-NetWeather - mixed and less severe than last Winter, but still a cold winter overall for uk.

13-Peter O'Donnel or M.T Cranium -Irish weather online-He has forecast a below average winter temps wise. He said december will be a mixed bag, with a few very cold snowy episodes mixed in with some milder interludes so an average decmber overall. He then said january could be very cold ,just as cold as last december but with more precipitaion so more snow. He stated that january could be 4-5 degrees below normal and seeing as january avg temp is 1 degree lower than december and december last year was 6 degrees below avg this january could be as cold as last december but even more snow. He then said feb would be mild, but then march would be quite cold with a return to wintry conditions.

14-Daniel Smith- Hes on another forum ,a very good forecater in my opinion has forecast a very cold start to winter, with the end of november being very cold and snowy and then whole of december being very cold and snowy also. Link to his website-http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-20112012/

15-Weather services International -Changed their original cold nov and dec to mild winter. With all winter months featuring above avg temperatures.

16-TWO weather-They are going for very cold winter-Link to their forecast -http://www.wishawpress.co.uk/wishaw-...6495-29657776/

17-The Donegal Postman - He has said he does not think this winter will be severe at all. He thinks this winter will be a very average typical irish winter this year.

18-US firm- that predicted last year's Arctic snap as well as the previous big freeze of 2009-2010 also warned that we might be in for another very cold winter.

19-Ken RingFarmers Almanac- anyone know?I dont..

20-Harry Kershaw- Thinks this winter in uk could be one of most severe in modern times, rivalling the winter of 1812/13 one of the coldest winters ever recorded in russia(yes you heard.. russia :eek: ) some days never reached a high of more than -10 in central moscow.The winter forced napoleon and his army to retreat becuase it was so cold.So if that winter was bad by russian standards..and he thinks itll hit uk....:eek:
http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1464867_brrr-ace-yourselves-amateur-weatherman-predicts-ice-age-winter-for-greater-manchester

21-Pauldry-Forecaster on boards thinks this winter will be quite cold but mixed. Though nowhere near as bad as last two years. Some snow and cold in january but nothing majorly disruptive. Forecast-http://www.weathergossip.com/winter.html

22-Spraggy and Ed-Two users on daily mail winter 2011/2012 have a weather site together. They think this winter could be very cold winter the whole way through with a lot of snow and below avg temperatures in all winter months. www.ukweatherman.blogspot

23-Weather logistics UK-Think a number of factors will contribute towrds a very cold winter in uk and usa.They think ''northern blocking''will become a regular visitor this winter, with severe cold and blizzard like conditions setting in around mid december 15-20 days after the bad winter on the us east coast starts.http://www.weatherlogistics.com/seasonalforecast/?p=1452

4/23 going for mild. 2/23 undecided. 17/23 very cold winter.
This list includes 23 long range forecasters,all of which(except brian gaze and Ken ring who are'nt sure yet) bar Accuweather and the Donegal Postman think this winter will feature below avg temps and disruptive snowfall at at least some stage this winter, some think it'll be the nov/dec time frame,some end of december/jan some new year and then very cold jan and feb.
*The met office cant be counted really as they don't publish lrf, but they have been saying they don't see anything to suggest this winter will be very harsh. They're being very careful with the way they word things in newspapers, they havnt specifically said whether they think this winter will be cold or mild, but seem to be hinting at mild or atleast avg, and are saying that long range forecasting beyond a week is impossible and guesscasting though I think M.T has and will prove them wrong ;)Hes a great long range forecaster!

derekon

bb1234567 wrote: »

Piers Corbyn-Weather Action - an extreme cold period with huge snowfalls from 27th November to 28th December.

James Madden-Exacta Weather - a very severe winter with temperature and snow fall records being beaten. He thinks All winter months will be excpetionally cold and all of uk will receive huge volumes of snow.

Mark Vogan - cold setting in Mid December followed by an exceptionally cold January. An exceptionally cold and snowy winter as a whole.

Climate Prediction Centre based in America- They were the ones to forecast the return of the la nina and they think this la nina will cause a very cold winter in uk across the entire northern hemisphere--http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/another-harsh-winter-is-expected-as-la-nina-returns/

Brian Gaze-The Weather Outlook-Admits he really has no idea right now. At first thought itd be mild winter,then very cold now not sure.But specifically told people who like snow to not worry. Said this winter could be very severe and if it is, he thinks it'll begin in new years like 1946/47 did, but also said there's a chance this winter could be mild too.

Joe Bastardi-Weather Bell -Very cold but not as severe as last year, but more prolonged cold than last year,all winter months below average temps and high amounts of snowfall.Thinks the more prolonged but less severe cold could give us more snow than last year over course of winter.

AccuWeather - Mild Winter with little snow.

WeatherOnline - A very cold winter, similar to Mark Vogans forecast, with cold setting in Mid December followed by a severely cold January.

Met Office/BBC - No longer issue long range forecasts so they dont really count, but they have said that they dont think this winter will be as severe as everyone says its going to be.

Positive Weather Solutions - talk of an extremely cold end to the month followed by a very cold December. Avery cold winter as a whole.

NetWeather - mixed and less severe than last Winter, but still a cold winter overall for uk.

Peter O'Donnel or M.T Cranium -Irish weather online-He has forecast a below average winter temps wise. He said december will be a mixed bag, with a few very cold snowy episodes mixed in with some milder interludes so an average decmber overall. He then said january could be very cold ,just as cold as last december but with more precipitaion so more snow. He stated that january could be 4-5 degrees below normal and seeing as january avg temp is 1 degree lower than december and december last year was 6 degrees below avg this january could be as cold as last december but even more snow. He then said feb would be mild, but then march would be quite cold with a return to wintry conditions.

Daniel Smith- Hes on another forum ,a very good forecater in my opinion has forecast a very cold start to winter, with the end of november being very cold and snowy and then whole of december being very cold and snowy also. Link to his website-http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-20112012/

Weather services International -They have said this winter will be below avg temps wise. They say itll be cold and early winter but less severe than last year. They say the worst cold and snow will be in end of november to end of december, they believe the la nina will once again be strong so they think that jan and feb will be much warmer than nov/dec like last year.Link to their forecast-thttp://www.wsi.com/ec1c5e30-6883-47c2-bd44-ce26d03abddd/news-scheduled-forecast-archive-detail.htm

TWO weather-They are going for very cold winter-Link to their forecast -http://www.wishawpress.co.uk/wishaw-...6495-29657776/

The Donegal Postman - He has said he does not think this winter will be severe at all. He thinks this winter will be a very average typical irish winter this year.

US firm- that predicted last year's Arctic snap as well as the previous big freeze of 2009-2010 also warned that we might be in for another very cold winter.

Ken RingFarmers Almanac- anyone know?I dont..

Harry Kershaw- Thinks this winter in uk could be one of most severe in modern times, rivalling the winter of 1812/13 one of the coldest winters ever recorded in russia(yes you heard.. russia :eek: ) some days never reached a high of more than -10 in central moscow.The winter forced napoleon and his army to retreat becuase it was so cold.So if that winter was bad by russian standards..and he thinks itll hit uk....:eek:
http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1464867_brrr-ace-yourselves-amateur-weatherman-predicts-ice-age-winter-for-greater-manchester

Pauldry-Forecaster on boards thinks this winter will be quite cold but mixed. Though nowhere near as bad as last two years. Some snow and cold in january but nothing majorly disruptive. Forecast-http://www.weathergossip.com/winter.html

Spraggy and Ed-Two users on daily mail winter 2011/2012 have a weather site together. They think this winter could be very cold winter the whole way through with a lot of snow and below avg temperatures in all winter months. www.ukweatherman.blogspot

This list includes 21 long range forecasters,all of which(except brian gaze and Ken ring who are'nt sure yet) bar Accuweather and the Donegal Postman think this winter will feature below avg temps and disruptive snowfall at at least some stage this winter, some think it'll be the nov/dec time frame,some end of december/jan some new year and then very cold jan and feb.
*The met office cant be counted really as they don't publish lrf, but they have been saying they don't see anything to suggest this winter will be very harsh. They're being very careful with the way they word things in newspapers, they havnt specifically said whether they think this winter will be cold or mild, but seem to be hinting at mild or atleast avg, and are saying that long range forecasting beyond a week is impossible and guesscasting though I think M.T has and will prove them wrong ;)Hes a great long range forecaster!

Thank you for the update - however I think your mate Daniel Smith is way off. End of November very cold and snowy? That ain't gonna happen!

D

Ahorseofaman

that's a lot of work there bb,well done

ps nice to see you've calmed down a bit:D

Lucreto

derekon wrote: »

Thank you for the update - however I think your mate Daniel Smith is way off. End of November very cold and snowy? That ain't gonna happen!

D

He admitted he was way off for the end of the month. This European high just won't leave.

Fiskar

Thanks bb1...................

Being a biker, my favorite is the Donegal Postman

dsmythy

bb1234567 wrote: »

<snip>
This list includes 21 long range forecasters,all of which(except brian gaze and Ken ring who are'nt sure yet) bar Accuweather and the Donegal Postman think this winter will feature below avg temps and disruptive snowfall at at least some stage this winter, some think it'll be the nov/dec time frame,some end of december/jan some new year and then very cold jan and feb.
*The met office cant be counted really as they don't publish lrf, but they have been saying they don't see anything to suggest this winter will be very harsh. They're being very careful with the way they word things in newspapers, they havnt specifically said whether they think this winter will be cold or mild, but seem to be hinting at mild or atleast avg, and are saying that long range forecasting beyond a week is impossible and guesscasting though I think M.T has and will prove them wrong ;)Hes a great long range forecaster!

If one of December, January and February fail to be colder than average then medium to long range forecasting will be taking a serious blow to what credibility it has.

bb1234567

dsmythy wrote: »

If one of December, January and February fail to be colder than average then medium to long range forecasting will be taking a serious blow to what credibility it has.

if this winter does turn out mild somehow i will then lose all faith in lrf,and fully believe what the met say about it being a farce and that you cant forecast further than 7 days out with great accuracy.

missrandomer

bb1234567 wrote: »

if this winter does turn out mild somehow i will then lose all faith in lrf,and fully believe what the met say about it being a farce and that you cant forecast further than 7 days.

bb loosing faith...:eek: now thats serious!

well done bb, keep up the good work

JanuarySnowstor

As far as i'm concerned the only lrf worth viewing is that of GP over on Netweather. He has been very accurate so far & hopefully his predictions of a cold January follow suit.
I think most other lrf's are already inaccurate before the Winter even begins. Though I do say well done to those who try and forecast so far out as Brian Gaze on two I believe leaves it to the last minute for obvious reasons

bb1234567

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As far as i'm concerned the only lrf worth viewing is that of GP over on Netweather. He has been very accurate so far & hopefully his predictions of a cold January follow suit.
I think most other lrf's are already inaccurate before the Winter even begins. Though I do say well done to those who try and forecast so far out as Brian Gaze on two I believe leaves it to the last minute for obvious reasons

what about mt? and joe bastardi they deserve some credit!

jimmynippy

Did GP not predict a hot Barbeque Summer?

bb1234567

jimmynippy wrote: »

Did GP not predict a hot Barbeque Summer?

what does gp stand for?

JanuarySnowstor

bb1234567 wrote: »

what about mt? and joe bastardi they deserve some credit!

I'll give credit where credit is due and whilst I respect and enjoy MT's forecasts I think they lack accuracy.
It's always what we want to hear, but not often what happens!

jimmynippy

He is the chief forecaster on Netweather,very good,but can be wrong the same as anyone else.He reckons January is the month for our best shot.

JanuarySnowstor

jimmynippy wrote: »

Did GP not predict a hot Barbeque Summer?

He did and got it badly wrong. However up to this point he was doing very well and you have to admit he has called early Winter almost to the button!

jimmynippy

He has for sure and i find that his posts are really educational and help me understand all the factors that we don't realise affect our weather ie:stratosphere,upper winds etc.Just pointing out that even though everything pointed him towards a hot Summer,something else got in the way.Hope this happens with his forecast for the next month

screamer

I'm no weather forecaster, I can hardly read a chart, BUT, I have 2 winter weather forecasters who tell me what the winter will be like every year. 2 Badgers have come into my garden late at night in the last 2 years, about 2 weeks before the snow, this year, I've not seen them yet, when and if I do, I'll be getting the snow shovel and salt out. They've been more accurate than any MET eireann forecast.

Iancar29

Back on topic....

Latest run looks like a mess to be honest, nothing looking right at all from the original predicted cooling trend from the 1st that is.