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The eu will bankrupt ireland

2

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,088 ✭✭✭farmerjj


    Europe is morally bankrupt.

    Why do you say that?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,090 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    _Brian wrote: »
    I
    Farming is way down the priorities in Europe now and I'd expect the US will be straight on with a trade deal including beef imports to to the U.K. This is our biggest threat. Am open border with the six counties is a political token.

    I agree about farming being down the priority in Europe. This is because this generation are unworried about food security. They is always food in the supermarket's and they know no difference. In 1970 you still had a generation that remembered the war and food rationing. That went on until 1950. You can see the same thinking in China where they are buying land all over the world to achieve food security. The EU no longer see it as an issue

    However I remained unconvinced about this UK/USA trade deal. Neither do I see cheap beef from the USA. Last year the USA had the highest before price in the world. They are experiencing issues with there beef production system. Drought caused the last issue and may happen again as well. Water supply to Feedlots is another issue. Irrigation is a huge part of the US food production system at present they are having to go deeper and deeper to find ground water. There is regulations starting to come in as water supply competes with domestic and industrial use.

    Finally you have the issue of hormones, UK retailer's are the most regulations conscious inthe world in relation to beef after BSE. IMO the US would find it hard to crack the UK market. In reality as well while they are an exporter of beef in 2015 they consumed more than they produced. A drop in the price of beef in the UK could see a sharp drop in production of beef as like ourselves the UK would have a highish cost production system.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,868 ✭✭✭✭_Brian


    While I think today's ruling is likely to delay triggering Article 50 I would still see it being triggered before the end of the year.

    It's probably not going to be helpful to the UK negotiations team to have everything trashed out in public, it kinda tops their hand in the negotiations with the EU.

    I find it hard to believe that there will be an open market for Irish foods to the UK, there's just nothing in that for the EU. If there are tariffs on Irish beef then I can't see near as much being shipped into the U.K.

    If we export 90% of beef and 50% of those exports go to the U.K. How much of that do people expect to continue if tariffs are being applied ?? I just don't see an alternative market being found to take up the lost exports, beef consumption is on a downward trend across the eu as it is.

    What are the chances of a tarrif on beef going to the us as Trump encourages consumption of foods produced inside the USA ??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    I agree about farming being down the priority in Europe. This is because this generation are unworried about food security. They is always food in the supermarket's and they know no difference. In 1970 you still had a generation that remembered the war and food rationing. That went on until 1950. You can see the same thinking in China where they are buying land all over the world to achieve food security. The EU no longer see it as an issue

    However I remained unconvinced about this UK/USA trade deal. Neither do I see cheap beef from the USA. Last year the USA had the highest before price in the world. They are experiencing issues with there beef production system. Drought caused the last issue and may happen again as well. Water supply to Feedlots is another issue. Irrigation is a huge part of the US food production system at present they are having to go deeper and deeper to find ground water. There is regulations starting to come in as water supply competes with domestic and industrial use.

    Finally you have the issue of hormones, UK retailer's are the most regulations conscious inthe world in relation to beef after BSE. IMO the US would find it hard to crack the UK market. In reality as well while they are an exporter of beef in 2015 they consumed more than they produced. A drop in the price of beef in the UK could see a sharp drop in production of beef as like ourselves the UK would have a highish cost production system.


    But outside the EU there is nothing to stop the UK importing South American beef. They would quickly smarten themselves up to supply the demands of the UK and their picky consumers.
    If the UK wanted to them to ditch the hormones for their market I'm sure they would happily oblige.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    We better hope those French farmers get their slurry tanks on the street cause you sure as hell will die of the hunger if you were depending on the Irish farming lobby to fight our cause.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,252 ✭✭✭alps


    I do not see any advantage in being so pessimistic.

    I am a great believer in "not shaking hands with the devil until you meet him"

    With regards the UK and USA, things are not likely to be as rosy as they would like others to believe at present. Time will tell.

    Agree completely Donegal.....the pessimism is debilitating.....

    Worse than that..the people who should know better are spending their days trying to frighten the chyte out of people. Our advisors, our farm organisations, all of our opinion formers are doing nothing but putting the frighteners up...there is no sense to it...

    Britain is in a mess over this...not us...May looks nothing short of chemical Ali in her denial...
    Now the hard Brexit is about "new relationship" encompassing "free trade agreement" that will be beneficial for Britain and for Europe.

    This is going nowhere fast.....would the pessimists just back off the scare tactics...just because today is a good day doesn't mean well have to pay for it tomorrow with a bad one....

    There only one thing worse than a man with a tie telling a lie...and that's a pessimist with a tie....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,313 ✭✭✭TITANIUM.


    alps wrote: »
    Agree completely Donegal.....the pessimism is debilitating.....

    Worse than that..the people who should know better are spending their days trying to frighten the chyte out of people. Our advisors, our farm organisations, all of our opinion formers are doing nothing but putting the frighteners up...there is no sense to it...

    Britain is in a mess over this...not us...May looks nothing short of chemical Ali in her denial...
    Now the hard Brexit is about "new relationship" encompassing "free trade agreement" that will be beneficial for Britain and for Europe.

    This is going nowhere fast.....would the pessimists just back off the scare tactics...just because today is a good day doesn't mean well have to pay for it tomorrow with a bad one....

    There only one thing worse than a man with a tie telling a lie...and that's a pessimist with a tie....

    Lol very good,
    I hate all this doom and gloom **** myself. at this rate we'll talk ourself into trouble. This has real effects on the industry as it really damages confidence. That being said there is allot to be said for remaining informed IOT plan as best you can for whatever the future might bring.

    Personally I don't see the doomsday scenario that some people are predicting playing out. I won't be taking any drastic measures to prepare for the rapture. Instead I'll keep the head up stick to my plan and keep going forward in the belief that there are always peaks and troughs in any industry, I just need to be in a position to take advantage when the time is right.
    Don't worry lad's the sun will rise tomorrow. So you might might as well be smiling when it does.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,090 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    20silkcut wrote: »
    I agree about farming being down the priority in Europe. This is because this generation are unworried about food security. They is always food in the supermarket's and they know no difference. In 1970 you still had a generation that remembered the war and food rationing. That went on until 1950. You can see the same thinking in China where they are buying land all over the world to achieve food security. The EU no longer see it as an issue

    However I remained unconvinced about this UK/USA trade deal. Neither do I see cheap beef from the USA. Last year the USA had the highest before price in the world. They are experiencing issues with there beef production system. Drought caused the last issue and may happen again as well. Water supply to Feedlots is another issue. Irrigation is a huge part of the US food production system at present they are having to go deeper and deeper to find ground water. There is regulations starting to come in as water supply competes with domestic and industrial use.

    Finally you have the issue of hormones, UK retailer's are the most regulations conscious inthe world in relation to beef after BSE. IMO the US would find it hard to crack the UK market. In reality as well while they are an exporter of beef in 2015 they consumed more than they produced. A drop in the price of beef in the UK could see a sharp drop in production of beef as like ourselves the UK would have a highish cost production system.


    But outside the EU there is nothing to stop the UK importing South American beef. They would quickly smarten themselves up to supply the demands of the UK and their picky consumers.
    If the UK wanted to them to ditch the hormones for their market I'm sure they would happily oblige.

    No there is nothing to stop them but again Brazil with it hormone history and it environmental regarding deforestation will struggle to catch the market. Argentina is a good fit but what is I. It for British exporters. We import more from the UK than than China, the whole of South America individually if not combined. We are a high priced market with a higher margin than the UK. Tariffs work both ways. IMO a lot of what is going on with Brexit is partially an attempt to destabilise the EU. Remember with the advent of the euro it took 19 different currencies off the market. The money made trading against these currencies,along with foreign exchange was a colossal loss to the banking system. So alot of scaremongering is coming from the financial sector.

    TBH I am kind of bullish on Brexit maybe I am wrong but I can see this as being more of a problem for the UK than for Ireland or the EU. We are too important of a market for the UK to ignore. As well the zUK imports French wine and cheese as well as wine from Italy, and Spain. Pork and Bacon from Denmark and the Netherlands as well as chicken from the Netherlands as well. IMO again a d maybe I am wrong the biggest issue for the UK is access for it financial sector to the EU and a lot of the scar mongering is originating from there with facts and figures.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭kerry cow


    The UK will do fine for its self.ireland is a dot to the UK and a pain in the ass to Europe .
    The guys on here who want to keep there chin up and ignore the issue might as well Bury their heads in the sand .kerry shares have dropped day on day since the referendum. It's a sign of what's to come .The beef is doomed .maybe it's time for sexed dairy straws and get rid of the suckler herds .There will be enough beef from the dairy herd for every one .Don't see too much beef in nz.
    Times of change are coming and we need to adopt .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    A bit of rioting in Belfast ,a few shots fired and Ireland could be accommodated .Interesting that the Assembly collapsed just now after all of these years.....


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,313 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    “You'll never find a rainbow if you're looking down”
    Charlie Chaplin


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    A bit of rioting in Belfast ,a few shots fired and Ireland could be accommodated .Interesting that the Assembly collapsed just now after all of these years.....

    At the risk of being a doom and gloom merchant.;)

    There's a nationalistic current going through Europe atm with Le Penn in France and even the latest dairy demonstrations by French dairy farmers in Brussels looking for the return of milk quotas.

    There's a current (I feel) of mè fèin and to hell with everyone else.
    So Enda Kenny is happy for Michel Barnier to head these talks and to conduct the negotiations in French. (If it was a German leading these talks I bet it would be conducted in English). (But you know the French, big mè fèiners:rolleyes:).
    I don't have the greatest feeling that Ireland will be given much thought during these talks.
    I hope I'm wrong, deeply wrong. But....:rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    “You'll never find a rainbow if you're looking down”
    Charlie Chaplin

    Make hay when the sun shines.
    Scrape the yard when it's raining.

    Pedigree :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    There's a current (I feel) of mè fèin and to hell with everyone else.

    I can't disagree with you but I also can't help wondering what is the polar opposite of mè fèin and whether we might have allowed the world to swing a little too far in that direction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,112 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    kerry cow wrote: »
    The UK will do fine for its self.ireland is a dot to the UK and a pain in the ass to Europe .
    The guys on here who want to keep there chin up and ignore the issue might as well Bury their heads in the sand .kerry shares have dropped day on day since the referendum. It's a sign of what's to come .The beef is doomed .maybe it's time for sexed dairy straws and get rid of the suckler herds .There will be enough beef from the dairy herd for every one .Don't see too much beef in nz.
    Times of change are coming and we need to adopt .


    £28billion of exports is more than a dot
    Ireland is the UK’s largest export market in food and drink, and second largest market in clothing, fashion and footwear. Trade in other sectors continues to grow. Two way trade stands over EUR 1 billion per week.

    We account for roughly 1/12th of their total exports


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,857 ✭✭✭TheQuietFella


    kerry cow wrote: »
    I read George lees report on the huge economic loss to ireland , now with the hard exit coming .
    Is there more for ireland to be gained , from the eu been in the eu compared to the losses we are going to endure, to not free trading with the UK .
    The UK , USA and putin will trade between themselves .They don't need the eu .trump is right when he talks about the Bullsht of the eu . Kiss good bye to the good days thing are going to get alot worse .thankfully I am not borrowed because ireland is going broke .
    It's rubbish to talk of Kenny should tell may this that and the other .like we were once a proud nation the UK will stand on her own two feet and no one will tell her what to do .The UK don't give two ****es about dublin .
    People just don't get it . Britain has always in history been in control of its own destiny .It never lost the pound and it's sick to death of the Germans and french.
    The yanks don't give a crap about anyone anymore but themselves as shown by trump elections .
    And neither does putin as the people would rather starve than deal with the eu .
    We are fcuked.

    The UK have absolutely NO intention of walking away from Europe despite all the rhetoric surrounding the exit. Constant talking of a ten year exit will extend beyond that and a new referendum will be called to turn the original decision around. Trump & Putin are yesterdays men!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    kowtow wrote: »
    I can't disagree with you but I also can't help wondering what is the polar opposite of mè fèin and whether we might have allowed the world to swing a little too far in that direction.

    Sinn Fèin I suppose.:P......:eek:;)

    You may be right and maybe brexit and trump wouldn't have happened if we didn't go too far down that road.??

    Edit: Every action has a reaction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    The UK have absolutely NO intention of walking away from Europe despite all the rhetoric surrounding the exit. Constant talking of a ten year exit will extend beyond that and a new referendum will be called to turn the original decision around. Trump & Putin are yesterdays men!


    The more you think about it the more you realise that the only solution to both Brexit and trump will be the politics of fudge. There are no losers in the politics of fudge. I'd equate jack lynch on the outbreak of the troubles proclaiming that "we will not stand idly by" with recent mutterings from Theresa May.
    A soft brexit is the only outcome of the negotiations between the U.K and the EU. Even if both sides start off from a hard brexit position. There is absolutely no gain from a hard brexit for anyone's political career or in terms of popular vote or most of all economically. Hard to see the politician responsible for negotiating thousands of jobs to leave the cities of the UK being remembered as a great man or woman. They have two years to to come up with a different name and maybe even present a new package for the Uk parliament to vote ( they will hardly put it to the electorate again) For the UK to actively seek a hard brexit would be economic suicide and for the EU to agree to a hard brexit it would be economic suicide for them too. Will there be rioting on the streets of the UK if they don't get a hard brexit after two years or more of dragged on negotiations that everyone is sick of will anyone bar the daily mail really care? Tighten up immigration a bit maybe restrict it from certain countries make border guards more visible and move on. Lot of skilled politicians on both sides who could dress things up to look like a victory with really very little at all won.

    Likewise Trump for him to go around tearing up trade deals and bring back heavy industry to the US at the taxpayers expense and cut off trade with his partners would also be economic suicide. He will renegotiate the deals get a concession here and there and move on it is the only option as long as he can say he is winning he won't really give a sh1te and he will be f*cked out after four years.
    To make America great again. America is way better now than it was at anytime in its previous history. Likewise the U.K.
    Sure certain areas have gone backwards but there was good and bad areas in the so called great period as well. There will always be winners and losers but there is far far more wealth in both countries today than there was 40-50 years ago. There is no going back this is a speed bump.
    The alternative is incomprehensible a mass voluntary economic suicide unparalleled in history.
    Usually such conditions are imposed by military defeat or colonial conquest. Nobody actively negotiates to make their economy smaller.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭kerry cow


    No body negotiates to shrink their economy but there has to be loosers and winners and then the ones who have no say at all .
    I think history does repeat it's self and trump is a shoot from the hip get on with it type .he has done mad things before some have worked , some have failed .he is a business man and does takes risks and in the interest of getting America back on foot he will fcuk over who he wants .wait and see . If I wrong I am a donkey and your a hero .
    The UK are a little more cooler but at the same time they will play this one to their advantage as history says that Britain will rule themselves and no doubt they will prosper at everyone's expense .
    To me the UK and USA are taking control of there destiny and will make choices while the paddy will continue to be ruled by the Germans and french .
    The Republicans are too focused on the UK while the Germans seeked in the back door and blind folded us .
    Dail eireann is a county council of Europe .
    Sadly


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    kerry cow wrote: »
    No body negotiates to shrink their economy but there has to be loosers and winners and then the ones who have no say at all .
    I think history does repeat it's self and trump is a shoot from the hip get on with it type .he has done mad things before some have worked , some have failed .he is a business man and does takes risks and in the interest of getting America back on foot he will fcuk over who he wants .wait and see . If I wrong I am a donkey and your a hero .
    The UK are a little more cooler but at the same time they will play this one to their advantage as history says that Britain will rule themselves and no doubt they will prosper at everyone's expense .
    To me the UK and USA are taking control of there destiny and will make choices while the paddy will continue to be ruled by the Germans and french .
    The Republicans are too focused on the UK while the Germans seeked in the back door and blind folded us .
    Dail eireann is a county council of Europe .
    Sadly


    The days of Britain prospering at everyone's expense are long long gone and nothing will bring them back. And it is not in their interest to bring them back.


    Dáil Éireann may be a county council of Europe but the uncomfortable or perhaps the unpopular or ignored truth is that it is governing a far more prosperous wealthier country or county if you wish now than the struggling nation we were in 1973 and that is due massively to membership of the common market and tariff free trade with 500 million people.

    The trouble with the UK and US is that the losers are a far more readily identifiable group and live in huge rust belt areas and can organise and promote demagogue politicians. But they just managed to scrape over the line in both constituencies. The stark indeed ridiculous reality of the economic shrinkage that these people are proposing will quickly shake the politicians into realising that a big massive fudge is the only option.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Trump slaps a tariff on cars made in Mexico the Mexicans slap a tariff on US grain and consumer goods. Far more damaging to the US and cars now massively more expensive and subsidised by American taxpayers. Economic suicide.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    20silkcut wrote: »

    Dáil Éireann may be a county council of Europe but the uncomfortable or perhaps the unpopular or ignored truth is that it is governing a far more prosperous wealthier country or county if you wish now than the struggling nation we were in 1973 and that is due massively to membership of the common market and tariff free trade with 500 million people.

    Bangalore, Colombo, and Port Louis have all seen huge jumps in prosperity since 1973 as well, with young people employed in offshored service centres, call centres, and back offices.

    It wasn't the EU, or any other quasi economic political grouping, which gave them this prosperity but simply the availability of wide area networks and the internet, all of which enabled service industries such as the ones we have in Ireland to locate in relatively lower cost places with access to educated staff.

    The EU single market has a part to play, but to give it credit for Ireland's recent relative prosperity is to fall for a political myth which does a great disservice to the youth of Ireland who always had the enthusiasm, and the education, but until the advent of connectivity had to emigrate if they were to deliver their skills to market.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    kowtow wrote: »
    Bangalore, Colombo, and Port Louis have all seen huge jumps in prosperity since 1973 as well, with young people employed in offshored service centres, call centres, and back offices.

    It wasn't the EU, or any other quasi economic political grouping, which gave them this prosperity but simply the availability of wide area networks and the internet, all of which enabled service industries such as the ones we have in Ireland to locate in relatively lower cost places with access to educated staff.

    The EU single market has a part to play, but to give it credit for Ireland's recent relative prosperity is to fall for a political myth which does a great disservice to the youth of Ireland who always had the enthusiasm, and the education, but until the advent of connectivity had to emigrate if they were to deliver their skills to market.

    What would we have done in 1974/75/76 we were still a good twenty years away from the internet and a good 25-30 years from widespread internet business. We were always an agricultural country by passed by the industrial revolution. At the risk of sounding like an EU loving technocrat which I am most definitely not on a pure economic business level joining the EEC was probably the biggest no brainier in the history of this country certainly since lemass decided to throw off the shackles of protectionism.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭kerry cow


    Agreed 20sc but we need the UK more than they need us .If you had a choice you would pick the future with EU over the UK ?? .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    kerry cow wrote: »
    Agreed 20sc but we need the UK more than they need us .If you had a choice you would pick the future with EU over the UK ?? .

    I'd take the EU over U.K andyday . 400 million plus population even without the UK and favourable access to china.

    Of course my ideal world would be completely economic and politically independent in a global free trade world but that is a pipe dream.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    20silkcut wrote: »
    The more you think about it the more you realise that the only solution to both Brexit and trump will be the politics of fudge. There are no losers in the politics of fudge. I'd equate jack lynch on the outbreak of the troubles proclaiming that "we will not stand idly by" with recent mutterings from Theresa May.
    A soft brexit is the only outcome of the negotiations between the U.K and the EU. Even if both sides start off from a hard brexit position. There is absolutely no gain from a hard brexit for anyone's political career or in terms of popular vote or most of all economically. Hard to see the politician responsible for negotiating thousands of jobs to leave the cities of the UK being remembered as a great man or woman. They have two years to to come up with a different name and maybe even present a new package for the Uk parliament to vote ( they will hardly put it to the electorate again) For the UK to actively seek a hard brexit would be economic suicide and for the EU to agree to a hard brexit it would be economic suicide for them too. Will there be rioting on the streets of the UK if they don't get a hard brexit after two years or more of dragged on negotiations that everyone is sick of will anyone bar the daily mail really care? Tighten up immigration a bit maybe restrict it from certain countries make border guards more visible and move on. Lot of skilled politicians on both sides who could dress things up to look like a victory with really very little at all won.

    Likewise Trump for him to go around tearing up trade deals and bring back heavy industry to the US at the taxpayers expense and cut off trade with his partners would also be economic suicide. He will renegotiate the deals get a concession here and there and move on it is the only option as long as he can say he is winning he won't really give a sh1te and he will be f*cked out after four years.
    To make America great again. America is way better now than it was at anytime in its previous history. Likewise the U.K.
    Sure certain areas have gone backwards but there was good and bad areas in the so called great period as well. There will always be winners and losers but there is far far more wealth in both countries today than there was 40-50 years ago. There is no going back this is a speed bump.
    The alternative is incomprehensible a mass voluntary economic suicide unparalleled in history.
    Usually such conditions are imposed by military defeat or colonial conquest. Nobody actively negotiates to make their economy smaller.



    Actually I am wrong to say economic suicide is unparalleled in history for that's what every socialist/ Marxist regime committed many of them voluntary.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    20silkcut wrote: »
    I'd take the EU over U.K andyday . 400 million plus population even without the UK and favourable access to china.

    Of course my ideal world would be completely economic and politically independent in a global free trade world but that is a pipe dream.

    I suspect a lot of Irish people would instinctively agree with you on that, at least as an instant reaction. I often wonder how much our attachment to the EU has to do with Europe *not* being the UK with all the history attached to Anglo-Irish relations, perhaps all the more so when the UK is itself Euro-phobic. Is Europe to some extent "our enemies enemy.." ?

    Presumably the domestic Irish economy - the part of the economy which is native and excludes MNC's - is very heavily balanced in favour of the UK as opposed to Europe. Agriculture of course would be a prime example of that - so on a rational economic basis the domestic economy would stick close to the UK.

    What proportion of our exports to the EU come from the domestic economy I do not know, although clearly a great deal comes from offshore multinationals based here.

    And those multi-nationals are a complex beast. They are (to borrow a phrase) in Ireland, but not of Ireland. They are the conacre of the modern economy - paying a "rent" in the form of salaried positions and the domestic spend which flows from them in return for tax discounts and the temporary dislocation of the domestic economy. Their profits are exported and ultimately they are only here while other countries (the EU in this case) tolerate the tax arbitrage.

    If we choose to sacrifice the UK for the sake of MNC exports to the EU we had better be very sure it isn't a short term gain for severe long term pain.

    So on a purely rational / economic basis the argument is far from clear cut.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    kowtow wrote: »
    I suspect a lot of Irish people would instinctively agree with you on that, at least as an instant reaction. I often wonder how much our attachment to the EU has to do with Europe *not* being the UK with all the history attached to Anglo-Irish relations, perhaps all the more so when the UK is itself Euro-phobic. Is Europe to some extent "our enemies enemy.." ?

    Presumably the domestic Irish economy - the part of the economy which is native and excludes MNC's - is very heavily balanced in favour of the UK as opposed to Europe. Agriculture of course would be a prime example of that - so on a rational economic basis the domestic economy would stick close to the UK.

    What proportion of our exports to the EU come from the domestic economy I do not know, although clearly a great deal comes from offshore multinationals based here.

    And those multi-nationals are a complex beast. They are (to borrow a phrase) in Ireland, but not of Ireland. They are the conacre of the modern economy - paying a "rent" in the form of salaried positions and the domestic spend which flows from them in return for tax discounts and the temporary dislocation of the domestic economy. Their profits are exported and ultimately they are only here while other countries (the EU in this case) tolerate the tax arbitrage.

    If we choose to sacrifice the UK for the sake of MNC exports to the EU we had better be very sure it isn't a short term gain for severe long term pain.

    So on a purely rational / economic basis the argument is far from clear cut.

    All we have to go on as a working example of life outside the EU is the period 1922-73. That was far from a hectic period. And we are overproducing an awful lot more now than we were then.
    Add in the loss of intervention and subsidies from the EU and the ability to deal with big trading blocs like china as part of a big trading bloc ourselves and it is hard to see much advantage going it alone with the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,264 ✭✭✭Good loser


    kerry cow wrote: »
    No body negotiates to shrink their economy but there has to be loosers and winners and then the ones who have no say at all .
    I think history does repeat it's self and trump is a shoot from the hip get on with it type .he has done mad things before some have worked , some have failed .he is a business man and does takes risks and in the interest of getting America back on foot he will fcuk over who he wants .wait and see . If I wrong I am a donkey and your a hero .
    The UK are a little more cooler but at the same time they will play this one to their advantage as history says that Britain will rule themselves and no doubt they will prosper at everyone's expense .
    To me the UK and USA are taking control of there destiny and will make choices while the paddy will continue to be ruled by the Germans and french .
    The Republicans are too focused on the UK while the Germans seeked in the back door and blind folded us .
    Dail eireann is a county council of Europe .
    Sadly

    You're confused and confusing.
    What's this inanity about us being a 'county council'? Is it because we're a small country? What does that matter and what's more there's nothing can be done about it. There are quite a few smaller countries in Europe and the EU.
    It's absurd to expect us to put our future in Britain's hands. Leaving the EU with them would be surely making us into little better than an English province. Have you not noticed the Scottish dismay at being removed from the EU against their wishes? We are sovereign - a shared sovereignty.

    In the EU we have a seat at the top table. The Agriculture Commr is Irish etc etc.

    What Ireland needs to do is keep it's nerve. Hold tough. Not run around like a blue arsed fly wailing and gnashing our teeth about the dire consequences of Brexit - that would be doing Britain's work for it. They got themselves into this hole - let them sort the mess!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    Good loser wrote: »
    In the EU we have a seat at the top table. The Agriculture Commr is Irish etc etc.

    In much the same way as the air hostess has a seat on the plane.


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