The eu will bankrupt ireland

20silkcut

Trump slaps a tariff on cars made in Mexico the Mexicans slap a tariff on US grain and consumer goods. Far more damaging to the US and cars now massively more expensive and subsidised by American taxpayers. Economic suicide.

kowtow

20silkcut wrote: »

Dáil Éireann may be a county council of Europe but the uncomfortable or perhaps the unpopular or ignored truth is that it is governing a far more prosperous wealthier country or county if you wish now than the struggling nation we were in 1973 and that is due massively to membership of the common market and tariff free trade with 500 million people.

Bangalore, Colombo, and Port Louis have all seen huge jumps in prosperity since 1973 as well, with young people employed in offshored service centres, call centres, and back offices.

It wasn't the EU, or any other quasi economic political grouping, which gave them this prosperity but simply the availability of wide area networks and the internet, all of which enabled service industries such as the ones we have in Ireland to locate in relatively lower cost places with access to educated staff.

The EU single market has a part to play, but to give it credit for Ireland's recent relative prosperity is to fall for a political myth which does a great disservice to the youth of Ireland who always had the enthusiasm, and the education, but until the advent of connectivity had to emigrate if they were to deliver their skills to market.

20silkcut

kowtow wrote: »

Bangalore, Colombo, and Port Louis have all seen huge jumps in prosperity since 1973 as well, with young people employed in offshored service centres, call centres, and back offices.

It wasn't the EU, or any other quasi economic political grouping, which gave them this prosperity but simply the availability of wide area networks and the internet, all of which enabled service industries such as the ones we have in Ireland to locate in relatively lower cost places with access to educated staff.

The EU single market has a part to play, but to give it credit for Ireland's recent relative prosperity is to fall for a political myth which does a great disservice to the youth of Ireland who always had the enthusiasm, and the education, but until the advent of connectivity had to emigrate if they were to deliver their skills to market.

What would we have done in 1974/75/76 we were still a good twenty years away from the internet and a good 25-30 years from widespread internet business. We were always an agricultural country by passed by the industrial revolution. At the risk of sounding like an EU loving technocrat which I am most definitely not on a pure economic business level joining the EEC was probably the biggest no brainier in the history of this country certainly since lemass decided to throw off the shackles of protectionism.

kerry cow

Agreed 20sc but we need the UK more than they need us .If you had a choice you would pick the future with EU over the UK ?? .

20silkcut

kerry cow wrote: »

Agreed 20sc but we need the UK more than they need us .If you had a choice you would pick the future with EU over the UK ?? .

I'd take the EU over U.K andyday . 400 million plus population even without the UK and favourable access to china.

Of course my ideal world would be completely economic and politically independent in a global free trade world but that is a pipe dream.

20silkcut

20silkcut wrote: »

The more you think about it the more you realise that the only solution to both Brexit and trump will be the politics of fudge. There are no losers in the politics of fudge. I'd equate jack lynch on the outbreak of the troubles proclaiming that "we will not stand idly by" with recent mutterings from Theresa May.
A soft brexit is the only outcome of the negotiations between the U.K and the EU. Even if both sides start off from a hard brexit position. There is absolutely no gain from a hard brexit for anyone's political career or in terms of popular vote or most of all economically. Hard to see the politician responsible for negotiating thousands of jobs to leave the cities of the UK being remembered as a great man or woman. They have two years to to come up with a different name and maybe even present a new package for the Uk parliament to vote ( they will hardly put it to the electorate again) For the UK to actively seek a hard brexit would be economic suicide and for the EU to agree to a hard brexit it would be economic suicide for them too. Will there be rioting on the streets of the UK if they don't get a hard brexit after two years or more of dragged on negotiations that everyone is sick of will anyone bar the daily mail really care? Tighten up immigration a bit maybe restrict it from certain countries make border guards more visible and move on. Lot of skilled politicians on both sides who could dress things up to look like a victory with really very little at all won.

Likewise Trump for him to go around tearing up trade deals and bring back heavy industry to the US at the taxpayers expense and cut off trade with his partners would also be economic suicide. He will renegotiate the deals get a concession here and there and move on it is the only option as long as he can say he is winning he won't really give a sh1te and he will be f*cked out after four years.
To make America great again. America is way better now than it was at anytime in its previous history. Likewise the U.K.
Sure certain areas have gone backwards but there was good and bad areas in the so called great period as well. There will always be winners and losers but there is far far more wealth in both countries today than there was 40-50 years ago. There is no going back this is a speed bump.
The alternative is incomprehensible a mass voluntary economic suicide unparalleled in history.
Usually such conditions are imposed by military defeat or colonial conquest. Nobody actively negotiates to make their economy smaller.

Actually I am wrong to say economic suicide is unparalleled in history for that's what every socialist/ Marxist regime committed many of them voluntary.

kowtow

20silkcut wrote: »

I'd take the EU over U.K andyday . 400 million plus population even without the UK and favourable access to china.

Of course my ideal world would be completely economic and politically independent in a global free trade world but that is a pipe dream.

I suspect a lot of Irish people would instinctively agree with you on that, at least as an instant reaction. I often wonder how much our attachment to the EU has to do with Europe *not* being the UK with all the history attached to Anglo-Irish relations, perhaps all the more so when the UK is itself Euro-phobic. Is Europe to some extent "our enemies enemy.." ?

Presumably the domestic Irish economy - the part of the economy which is native and excludes MNC's - is very heavily balanced in favour of the UK as opposed to Europe. Agriculture of course would be a prime example of that - so on a rational economic basis the domestic economy would stick close to the UK.

What proportion of our exports to the EU come from the domestic economy I do not know, although clearly a great deal comes from offshore multinationals based here.

And those multi-nationals are a complex beast. They are (to borrow a phrase) in Ireland, but not of Ireland. They are the conacre of the modern economy - paying a "rent" in the form of salaried positions and the domestic spend which flows from them in return for tax discounts and the temporary dislocation of the domestic economy. Their profits are exported and ultimately they are only here while other countries (the EU in this case) tolerate the tax arbitrage.

If we choose to sacrifice the UK for the sake of MNC exports to the EU we had better be very sure it isn't a short term gain for severe long term pain.

So on a purely rational / economic basis the argument is far from clear cut.

20silkcut

kowtow wrote: »

I suspect a lot of Irish people would instinctively agree with you on that, at least as an instant reaction. I often wonder how much our attachment to the EU has to do with Europe *not* being the UK with all the history attached to Anglo-Irish relations, perhaps all the more so when the UK is itself Euro-phobic. Is Europe to some extent "our enemies enemy.." ?

Presumably the domestic Irish economy - the part of the economy which is native and excludes MNC's - is very heavily balanced in favour of the UK as opposed to Europe. Agriculture of course would be a prime example of that - so on a rational economic basis the domestic economy would stick close to the UK.

What proportion of our exports to the EU come from the domestic economy I do not know, although clearly a great deal comes from offshore multinationals based here.

And those multi-nationals are a complex beast. They are (to borrow a phrase) in Ireland, but not of Ireland. They are the conacre of the modern economy - paying a "rent" in the form of salaried positions and the domestic spend which flows from them in return for tax discounts and the temporary dislocation of the domestic economy. Their profits are exported and ultimately they are only here while other countries (the EU in this case) tolerate the tax arbitrage.

If we choose to sacrifice the UK for the sake of MNC exports to the EU we had better be very sure it isn't a short term gain for severe long term pain.

So on a purely rational / economic basis the argument is far from clear cut.

All we have to go on as a working example of life outside the EU is the period 1922-73. That was far from a hectic period. And we are overproducing an awful lot more now than we were then.
Add in the loss of intervention and subsidies from the EU and the ability to deal with big trading blocs like china as part of a big trading bloc ourselves and it is hard to see much advantage going it alone with the UK.

Good loser

kerry cow wrote: »

No body negotiates to shrink their economy but there has to be loosers and winners and then the ones who have no say at all .
I think history does repeat it's self and trump is a shoot from the hip get on with it type .he has done mad things before some have worked , some have failed .he is a business man and does takes risks and in the interest of getting America back on foot he will fcuk over who he wants .wait and see . If I wrong I am a donkey and your a hero .
The UK are a little more cooler but at the same time they will play this one to their advantage as history says that Britain will rule themselves and no doubt they will prosper at everyone's expense .
To me the UK and USA are taking control of there destiny and will make choices while the paddy will continue to be ruled by the Germans and french .
The Republicans are too focused on the UK while the Germans seeked in the back door and blind folded us .
Dail eireann is a county council of Europe .
Sadly

You're confused and confusing.
What's this inanity about us being a 'county council'? Is it because we're a small country? What does that matter and what's more there's nothing can be done about it. There are quite a few smaller countries in Europe and the EU.
It's absurd to expect us to put our future in Britain's hands. Leaving the EU with them would be surely making us into little better than an English province. Have you not noticed the Scottish dismay at being removed from the EU against their wishes? We are sovereign - a shared sovereignty.

In the EU we have a seat at the top table. The Agriculture Commr is Irish etc etc.

What Ireland needs to do is keep it's nerve. Hold tough. Not run around like a blue arsed fly wailing and gnashing our teeth about the dire consequences of Brexit - that would be doing Britain's work for it. They got themselves into this hole - let them sort the mess!

kowtow

Good loser wrote: »

In the EU we have a seat at the top table. The Agriculture Commr is Irish etc etc.

In much the same way as the air hostess has a seat on the plane.

BlinkingLights

And we would be better off having absolutely no input and having to effectively pay tribute to Trump and Putin in some kind of new world order where we has no control whatsoever ?!

I think Trump's more likely to cause a massive economic disaster by running a country with his ego and little else and listening to no dissenting options whatsoever.

Do you seriously think Putin's Russia is doing well!?! The place is a mess and has no serious economic activity other than pumping oil and gas. That is a disgrace for a country that once had some of the world's most outstanding science, technology and engineering. It could have emerged from communism and become a major player in all sorts of areas but instead it drove most of its best and brightest abroad through a shift to the far right and authoritarianism.

If Ireland jumped on the Trump band wagon we would end up losing all control and having to just do whatever his Trumpiness allows us to do - maybe host golf courses.

Yes the EU has faults but it's mostly a very benevolent cooperative effort with high ideals of democracy and subsidiarity. It gets stuff wrong and has issues from time to time but it couldn't be further from an authoritarian dictatorship.

Ireland also genuinely does punch way above its weight in EU politics and has big influence.

Also bear in mind we came out of a massive recession relatively unscathed...

coolshannagh28

Ireland has to balance the impact of being in the EU against its outside interests . The economic crash of 2007 was partly caused by cheap money coming from Europe part of an EU wide stimulus /decentralisation drive following the launch of the euro.
Our FDI mainly American is helping drag us out of this recessionand the UK was first in line with a cheap loan at the time of the bailout.
Right now we are being forced to juggle a similar situation whereby we risk losing free access to our main trading partner in order to keep access to the single market ,however this time there is no guarantee under Trump that FDI will be there as a fallback position.

kerry cow

From a farming point of view will the yanks feed the Russians and will the Russians warm the yanks .The UK will trade with all .But it the Germans who could be the biggest losers if the eu was to fall as they depend our all to buy their industrial goods house hold , agricultural and motor .The Germans need control .

coolshannagh28

If the current drought continues Irish agriculture will have very little to export. No real rain here for more than 3 months and reservoirs as low as Ive seen for years , Could global warming become a factor?

kerry cow

The big problem with the eu is the regulation. There is a regulation for every thing .
If there a box on the floor to be put on a self .Firstly you will need a course done to lift the box then you probably can lift it on your own so you have to get a helper and if it's over your head you will probably have to erect scaffolding and employ a registered guy to do that who has had his kit inspected by Mr x who has done a course on this and that .
Omg, instead of grab the box and fcuk it up .
I like trumps get on with attitude .We have become so driven down a road of you can't do this and you can't do that .
Michael o leary is another good man .It's he who should be running our country and hospitals .
It's like dunbeg , trump wanted to spend millions on sea defence but no he could nt get planning because of so snail or slug or whatever .The man should have been given the green light the day after his application because it makes sense and creates jobs .This is the Bullsht that he live with .common sense is gone out the windows .

20silkcut

kowtow wrote: »

In much the same way as the air hostess has a seat on the plane.

An air hostess would be an improvement on the current ag commissioner.

20silkcut

kerry cow wrote: »

The big problem with the eu is the regulation. There is a regulation for every thing .
If there a box on the floor to be put on a self .Firstly you will need a course done to lift the box then you probably can lift it on your own so you have to get a helper and if it's over your head you will probably have to erect scaffolding and employ a registered guy to do that who has had his kit inspected by Mr x who has done a course on this and that .
Omg, instead of grab the box and fcuk it up .
I like trumps get on with attitude .We have become so driven down a road of you can't do this and you can't do that .
Michael o leary is another good man .It's he who should be running our country and hospitals .
It's like dunbeg , trump wanted to spend millions on sea defence but no he could nt get planning because of so snail or slug or whatever .The man should have been given the green light the day after his application because it makes sense and creates jobs .This is the Bullsht that he live with .common sense is gone out the windows .

This is what happens when government becomes too big. Too much bureaucracy and red tape.
This is the paradox of Donald trump and why he is all over the place as regards policy.
On the one hand he is As East German as Walter ulbricht building massive walls and borders and talking of creating unecesssry heavy industrial employment and being all for the American worker.
On the other hand he wants to slash taxes and make government a lot smaller. Both these policies are on the opposite ends of the politician spectrum and mutually exclusive.

laoch na mona

20silkcut wrote: »

This is what happens when government becomes too big. Too much bureaucracy and red tape.
This is the paradox of Donald trump and why he is all over the place as regards policy.
On the one hand he is As East German as Walter ulbricht building massive walls and borders and talking of creating unecesssry heavy industrial employment and being all for the American worker.
On the other hand he wants to slash taxes and make government a lot smaller. Both these policies are on the opposite ends of the politician spectrum and mutually exclusive.

He called for more border guards the day after he called for less government employees. He hasn't a clue

alps

20silkcut wrote: »

An air hostess would be an improvement on the current ag commissioner.

And no one complains about paying the air hostess for the water..

laoch na mona

alps wrote: »

And no one complains about paying the air hostess for the water..

The air hostess doesn't ask you to pay twice

BlinkingLights

The most likely outcome of this is going to be huge instability in the markets and the US, not in Europe.

I'd give Trump about 6 months before absolute mayhem kicks off. I wouldn't get overly enamoured with his approach as I think it's most definitely going to be a total disaster.

You're looking at someone who is almost certainly going to be impeached too and probably by his own party (well the party that parachuted him in anyway .. he's no more a Republican than he is a Democrat. He's a celebrity.)

pedigree 6

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

If the current drought continues Irish agriculture will have very little to export. No real rain here for more than 3 months and reservoirs as low as Ive seen for years , Could global warming become a factor?

I thought global warming causes rain and the Shannon to flood?
So this must be the opposite of global warming.;)
Don't worry this is Ireland there's plenty of rain on the way.
We're due a good drought anyway it's a good few years since we had one.

If only I could make money from global warming.
People are sheep.

And the Buzz words are not global warming but climate change.
Now go on outside there now and stop it.
Stop climate change.:D

hurling_lad

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

If the current drought continues Irish agriculture will have very little to export. No real rain here for more than 3 months and reservoirs as low as Ive seen for years , Could global warming become a factor?

Do you remember this time last year? The chance of drought becoming a widespread problem in this country is around nil.

_Brian

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

If the current drought continues Irish agriculture will have very little to export. No real rain here for more than 3 months and reservoirs as low as Ive seen for years , Could global warming become a factor?

Land is saturated here. Be a fair while yet till it's fit to be worked.

patsy_mccabe

BlinkingLights wrote: »

.....
Do you seriously think Putin's Russia is doing well!?! The place is a mess and has no serious economic activity other than pumping oil and gas. That is a disgrace for a country that once had some of the world's most outstanding science, technology and engineering. It could have emerged from communism and become a major player in all sorts of areas but instead it drove most of its best and brightest abroad through a shift to the far right and authoritarianism
...

Russia tried to make that transition too quickly. A far more gradual slide into a free market would have worked a lot better. I was in Moscow briefly in the early 90's and the place was just crazy. No lights even on in the airport. Cars pulled up in the middle of the road and guys in under them trying to fix them. Hotel had no hot water. Everybody staring at you like you were from another planet. And to think some people in this country would like the state to have more power over peoples lives.

20silkcut

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Russia tried to make that transition too quickly. A far more gradual slide into a free market would have worked a lot better. I was in Moscow briefly in the early 90's and the place was just crazy. No lights even on in the airport. Cars pulled up in the middle of the road and guys in under them trying to fix them. Hotel had no hot water. Everybody staring at you like you were from another planet. And to think some people in this country would like the state to have more power over peoples lives.

The soviet unions scientific advances were achieved at the point of a gun or the threat of Siberia. As soon as their best and brightest had the choice they got the f*uck out of there.

Bass Reeves

hurling_lad wrote: »

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

If the current drought continues Irish agriculture will have very little to export. No real rain here for more than 3 months and reservoirs as low as Ive seen for years , Could global warming become a factor?

Do you remember this time last year? The chance of drought becoming a widespread problem in this country is around nil.

Not from a farming point of view but in urban Ireland it is not beyond the bounds of possibilities. The water charges debacle has left us exposed. Dublin was very near drought 3-4 years ago, now with a larger population and with the economic upturn demand will be up as well. If reservoirs are very low it would not take much of a summer to cause an issue.

Username John

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Russia tried to make that transition too quickly. A far more gradual slide into a free market would have worked a lot better. I was in Moscow briefly in the early 90's and the place was just crazy. No lights even on in the airport. Cars pulled up in the middle of the road and guys in under them trying to fix them. Hotel had no hot water. Everybody staring at you like you were from another planet. And to think some people in this country would like the state to have more power over peoples lives.

What had you in Moscow in the 90s patsy?
Russia is a place I'd love to go, and I wouldn't be a big man for travelling... but would like to go there...

patsy_mccabe

Username John wrote: »

What had you in Moscow in the 90s patsy?
Russia is a place I'd love to go, and I wouldn't be a big man for travelling... but would like to go there...

Stop over with Aeroflot. Connection flight cancelled, so ended up staying the night there but got a tour around Moscow thrown in.

freedominacup

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Not from a farming point of view but in urban Ireland it is not beyond the bounds of possibilities. The water charges debacle has left us exposed. Dublin was very near drought 3-4 years ago, now with a larger population and with the economic upturn demand will be up as well. If reservoirs are very low it would not take much of a summer to cause an issue.

We can only hope. It'd be a grand distraction during July when putting out bales to.hope with the lack of grass. I actually can't think of a funnier thing ever happening to a general populace, ever. Sorry for going off topic.

Postdriver

BlinkingLights wrote:

Yes the EU has faults but it's mostly a very benevolent cooperative effort with high ideals of democracy and subsidiarity. It gets stuff wrong and has issues from time to time but it couldn't be further from an authoritarian dictatorship.

Except when we voted no a couple of times and was told ah ah wrong answer go again😉

Good loser

Postdriver wrote: »

Except when we voted no a couple of times and was told ah ah wrong answer go again😉

And we went again. I got it right first time.

Can't even remember the issue now - but it did us no harm.

Bass Reeves

freedominacup wrote: »

We can only hope. It'd be a grand distraction during July when putting out bales to.hope with the lack of grass. I actually can't think of a funnier thing ever happening to a general populace, ever. Sorry for going off topic.

Be careful what you wish for a lot of farmers depending on mains water for cows and drystock.

amacca

Good loser wrote: »

And we went again. I got it right first time.

Can't even remember the issue now - but it did us no harm.

I wonder about that.....