Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) READ MOD NOTE POST #1

dacogawa · 24-02-2018 10:02AM

GFS has the snow arriving on the East coast early Tuesday morning and spreading into the south, ARPEGE is a day later with the same conclusion, who will win...

gfs-7-72.png?6

And then pretty much countrywide by Wednesday afternoon

gfs-7-102.png?6

highdef · 24-02-2018 10:04AM

NIMAN wrote: »

I have read people say this will be as bad as 2010. Really? Its going to hit -18C?

How come I watched the weather forecast last night on RTE, and they told us it might get to -3C...a massive -3C....it was the same temperature a couple of weeks ago when I was commuting home from night shifts. And there was no chaos on the roads.

I too think we are going see another anti-climax on this.

So you judge the severity of the weather on temperature alone?

Do you consider -18c and a few cm of snow to be worse than 30+cm of snow @-3c?

Even if temperature records are not broken, the sheer amount of snow currently being forecast in many Eastern areas is record breaking. Are you saying that if that happens but it's only a few degrees below freezing at the same time, then it's not as bad as 2010?

mirrorwall14 · 24-02-2018 10:08AM

Anyone having glitches with the technical thread? Keeps going to the wrong page of it and telling me there’s a new post when there isnt

Discodog · 24-02-2018 10:08AM

The critical thing, especially for outdoor workers, livestock etc will be the windspeed & amount of sunshine. The sun is quite strong now & it's the windchill that's causing the problem.

It's the worse possible timing. Birds are starting to nest, the farms have lambs & calves, plants & crops are budding. A long cold spell will cause serious problems.

George Sunsnow · 24-02-2018 10:12AM

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Anyone having glitches with the technical thread? Keeps going to the wrong page of it and telling me there’s a new post when there isnt

Yeah that’s a frequent problem with the touch version of boards
It hides new posts
You can only see them if you tap full site at the bottom of the page
A pita

dacogawa · 24-02-2018 10:12AM

Quite far out in FI but that looks blizzard like if it holds up and the temps stay down, one to keep an eye on

gfs-7-144.png?6

bazlers · 24-02-2018 10:13AM

Would it jinx it all if I make a sleigh today☔️☔️

pjohnson · 24-02-2018 10:14AM

Discodog wrote: »

The critical thing, especially for outdoor workers, livestock etc will be the windspeed & amount of sunshine. The sun is quite strong now & it's the windchill that's causing the problem.

It's the worse possible timing. Birds are starting to nest, the farms have lambs & calves, plants & crops are budding. A long cold spell will cause serious problems.

Our breeding Robins/Blackbirds/Pheasants probably wont survive I take it

They are eating more than usual this morning.

Lu Tze · 24-02-2018 10:16AM

Swanner wrote: »

That was 8 years ago and it all worked out just fine even without buying tyre chain, snow shoes or a shovel..

I was driving an auto rear while drive Merc and managed to drive up Slaughter Hill in Newtown and go shooting which was heaven in the snow.

Not sure why 2010 is relevant though..

I'm not saying this won't happen. I'm sure if we all get excited enough times it will eventually come to fruition and maybe this is is it..

I'll know if I look out my window and see snow.

Im not sure what your purpose is in here - this and the previous thread have been going on for a week or so, looking at weather charts and observing the model for once coincide. Its clear forecasts and future permutations of weather are very much not your thing, which is fine. Some of us will take some precautions based on these threads and the MET advisory, such as picking up a few large bottle of water incase of freezing/burst pipes etc. Hardly a huge expense, and a sensible precaution.

Forecasts are best estimates, based on available data, they do not predict the future, which i think most on here understand. I do all kinds of modelling in my work - and you are generally lucky if you are within 10% of reality for all kinds of reasons, regardless of what you are modelling. You should head over to the economics forum (assuming there is one!) if you want to discuss the consequences of poor forecasting/modelling, and the dire consequences it can have!

Also I hope you are writing to the MET with your doubts.

sryanbruen · 24-02-2018 10:16AM

Swanner wrote: »

I love snow and get excited at the mention of it but I gave up following these threads a long long time ago...

Time after time, always a complete let down..

I haven’t read this thread but it keeps popping up
on the main page so I’m assuming we’re all being given reason to get excited again..

Just wondering, is there any reason to believe it’ll be any different this time ?

Or is this just more boards hype that’ll amount to absolutely nothing..

Plenty of reasons.

Favorable MJO
Record breaking SSW events
Record breaking reversed zonal westerlies
Very negative NAO
Very negative AO
Low solar activity (the sun is spotless right now)
UKMO being very bullish of this THROUGHOUT
Met Éireann gave out an early advisory (very unusual of them)

I’d appreciate people not down on the hype if they have zero evidence to back themselves up. Sure, you’re entitled to your opinion though. I just find it irritating how people come to these conclusions with no evidence to back themselves up.

pad199207 · 24-02-2018 10:16AM

FRIDAY MORNING nobody moving in Greater Dublin!

Musicman2000 · 24-02-2018 10:17AM

If the 06z Gfs run comes off next Friday the east and south of the country will come to a stand still a serious snow storm . But I think the GFS is being to progressive with that low . It will probably end up further south .

The Bishop Basher · 24-02-2018 10:19AM

Drumpot wrote: »

You are entitled to be dubious of the event next week but you are also entitled to keep it to yourself.

And i'm entitled to share it.

Having followed these threads and got excited umpteen times over many years only to have absolutely nothing happen, i simply popped in to ask if there was any reason to believe this time will be any different.

If there was I may follow it and start to get excited, if not, i'll just ignore it.

Not sure why the defensive responses..

igCorcaigh · 24-02-2018 10:22AM

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If the 06z Gfs run comes off next Friday the east and south of the country will come to a stand still a serious snow storm . But I think the GFS is being to progressive with that low . It will probably end up further south .

I see people on netweather forum saying that the latest runs bring the low up further north and mixing in warm air... Not sure which models.

The Bishop Basher · 24-02-2018 10:24AM

sryanbruen wrote: »

Plenty of reasons.

Favorable MJO
Record breaking SSW events
Record breaking reversed zonal westerlies
Very negative NAO
Very negative AO
Low solar activity (the sun is spotless right now)
UKMO being very bullish of this THROUGHOUT
Met Éireann gave out an early advisory (very unusual of them)

I’d appreciate people not down on the hype if they have zero evidence to back themselves up. Sure, you’re entitled to your opinion though. I just find it irritating how people come to these conclusions with no evidence to back themselves up.

Thanks you for the non emotional defensive response other then the fact that i've irritated you..

I did notice the ME warning which is certainly unusual although their warnings have also consistently come to nothing in recent memory.

Let's hope..

Musicman2000 · 24-02-2018 10:24AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I see people on netweather forum saying that the latest runs bringing the low up further north and mixing in a warm air...

If you live in the south of England yes.

Lumi · 24-02-2018 10:24AM

Mod Note

Swanner, you’ve made your point so can we all move on from the bickering please and enjoy the incredible Synoptics that are unfolding

Thanks

hairyslug · 24-02-2018 10:25AM

How bad are we expecting it to be around north wexford/gorey, my 3 kids are all too young to remember any significant snow so it will hopefully be a nice surprise to them.

Reckless Abandonment · 24-02-2018 10:26AM

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If the 06z Gfs run comes off next Friday the east and south of the country will come to a stand still a serious snow storm . But I think the GFS is being to progressive with that low . It will probably end up further south .

I hope it is. We would get an epic snow fall but the risk of it been washed away straight after it falls.

igCorcaigh · 24-02-2018 10:26AM

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If you live in the south of England yes.

Oh yes of course. I'm just wondering if that impacts us much. Maybe more snow for Leinster?

munsterlegend · 24-02-2018 10:28AM

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I hope it is. We would get an epic snow fall but the risk of it been washed away straight after it falls.

It wouldn't get washed away per ECM this morning which keeps the cold air. A lot of uncertainty about the track and movement of this low. It's a long way away but models are consistently showing it coming north close to Ireland and the UK.

no.8 · 24-02-2018 10:29AM

sryanbruen wrote:

Iâ€™d appreciate people not down on the hype if they have zero evidence to back themselves up. Sure, youâ€™re entitled to your opinion though. I just find it irritating how people come to these conclusions with no evidence to back themselves up.

highdef wrote:

So you judge the severity of the weather on temperature alone?

highdef wrote:

Do you consider -18c and a few cm of snow to be worse than 30+cm of snow @-3c?

highdef wrote:

Even if temperature records are not broken, the sheer amount of snow currently being forecast in many Eastern areas is record breaking. Are you saying that if that happens but it's only a few degrees below freezing at the same time, then it's not as bad as 2010?

Here here. Everybody is entitled to their opinion but if they are not able to back it up, especially with facts (in this Forum, it's worth v little). Temperature is simply only 1 aspect, as most of us know. Yes it can cause problems and depending on where you may live (e.g in Europe, they may vary). Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions can and do cause issues almost everywhere. I'd be more wary of temperatures near zero as opposed to max. Daily -5c or <.

Musicman2000 · 24-02-2018 10:29AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh yes of course. I'm just wondering if that impacts us much. Maybe more snow for Leinster?

Yes it would with a serious amount of Snow for Leinster .

kod87 · 24-02-2018 10:30AM

the GFS brings in all sorts of milder modification for the southern half of the country by next weekend, making snow more marginal in those situations.

But the GFS has been chopping and changing the low pressures position in all recent runs so it's far from set in stone. The ECM this morning was having none of this.

icesnowfrost · 24-02-2018 10:30AM

for those who think this is all hype and even though the weather charts are screaming snow and freezing temps for next week, I've this to put to u........... try and post on this page next Wednesday and if the page hasn't crashed lol try seeing you're post with the multiple posts and pics flooding in with snow reports

Cantona's Collars · 24-02-2018 10:30AM

hairyslug wrote: »

How bad are we expecting it to be around north wexford/gorey, my 3 kids are all too young to remember any significant snow so it will hopefully be a nice surprise to them.

We are going to get lots of snow. Even more if the low forecast to move in on Friday keeps on track. The beauty of being on this side of the country with Easterly/NE flows is the snow being generated off the Irish sea and us in the firing line.

beefburrito · 24-02-2018 10:31AM

Just ordered €200 worth of kerosene.
Clare oil are inundated with calls.

Check your oil tanks ladies and gentlemen.

Mines well low...

24-02-2018 10:32AM

dacogawa wrote: »

I don't think I've seen Met Eireann have such a warning so far out before about Wednesday-Friday.

From met.ie:

Monday: It will still be mainly dry on Monday, with some sunny spells at first, but cloud will thicken from the east with perhaps the odd light snow flurry in eastern areas, later in the day. Very cold with afternoon temperatures of 3 or 4 degrees Celsius in eastern counties and around 5 or 6 degrees Celsius in the west and southwest in a moderate east to southeast breeze. It will be very cold on Monday night with a severe frost and the risk of snow showers along northern and eastern and southern coastal fringes in moderate easterly winds. Lows of -2 to -4 C.

Tuesday: Some sunny spells on Tuesday, but cloudier in eastern and southern counties especially with occasional sleet and snow showers and possibly some more prolonged falls of snow in some parts later in the day. Daytime temperatures similar to Monday, 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in the midlands and east about 5 or 6 degrees Celsius in more western and southwestern parts.

Wednesday through to Friday: Extremely cold with severe frosts and daytime temperatures struggling to get above zero by day especially in eastern counties. Widespread snow showers at times, most especially in eastern, southern and northern counties and some disruptive accumulations are likely especially these areas and there is a weather advisory in operation, which will be continuously updated.

Met Eireann have been mentioning this event for the last week ....... but so far have not issued warnings as it’s too soon to do so . They never issues warnings until about 2 days before an event , probably because of accuracy and likelihood of changes etc.

Oops69 · 24-02-2018 10:33AM

bazlers wrote: »

Would it jinx it all if I make a sleigh today☔️☔️

too deep for sleighs I'm afraid, work on a helicopter maybe .

Calibos · 24-02-2018 10:34AM

Swanner wrote: »

And i'm entitled to share it.

Having followed these threads and got excited umpteen times over many years only to have absolutely nothing happen, i simply popped in to ask if there was any reason to believe this time will be any different.

If there was I may follow it and start to get excited, if not, i'll just ignore it.

Not sure why the defensive responses..

Short answer. Yes there is a reason to believe this will be different to the disappointments most other years.

Most other years absolutely every Computer model isn't in agreement. Most other years things are on a knife edge, if such and such a system moves 100km west we'll get snow if not we'll get nothing, or if the temperature is one degree colder that moisture laden low pressure moving in will fall as snow on its front edge, if that system stays 50km further south etc etc. Most years things are on a knife edge and invariably Ireland ends up on the wrong side of things and the Atlantic wins out.

This is not one of those times. Every single computer model is in agreement for the last week about next week. The Beast from the East is coming. We can see how cold its getting as it crosses Scandinavia. We can see its aimed directly at us. We can see how strong the push is that its actually going to bulldoze its way across the north atlantic to Eastern Canada, which means no Atlantic influence to ruin the party. By the time the Atlantic takes a shot the cold is so deeply embedded that its highly likely an Atlantic Low will dump snow on us if it tracks over us. We are absolutely no shadow of a doubt going to have a 2010 level event where the East Coast gets pasted with snow while the rest of the country goes into the freezer. But it could turn into a 1987 or 1982 level event if the Atlantic low forecast for Saturday week takes the right track and that could dump snow over the whole country except the North.

smallwonder · 24-02-2018 10:34AM

Pangea wrote: »

Donegaleans

It would be so weird if Donegal escaped this event!! I'm hoping the models change track slightly in our favour.

Snow angel · 24-02-2018 10:35AM

Please excuse my ignorance on this but people have mention the gfs shows blizzard like conditions in the FI next weekend. I was wondering how this can happen when the 850 temps are only -4 at best in the south? Can someone explain to which chart shows these conditions as I only understand 2-3 of the charts personally. Just want to learn, not doubting anyone.

Strangegravy · 24-02-2018 10:37AM

NIMAN wrote: »

I think to be fair, Swanner has a point.

The media do hype the weather up far too much. They are using adjectives now that simply aren't required. Its the nature of media I suppose, everything has to be bigger, better, badder, more severe, even if its not. The Indo website absolutely love talking about weather. Daily Mail thrive on it too. Everyone loves a coloured weather warning.

I have read people say this will be as bad as 2010. Really? Its going to hit -18C?

How come I watched the weather forecast last night on RTE, and they told us it might get to -3C...a massive -3C....it was the same temperature a couple of weeks ago when I was commuting home from night shifts. And there was no chaos on the roads.

I too think we are going see another anti-climax on this.

To be fair, the media WILL go off on one with this, but that's what they do... sensationalism.

But in saying that, this cold will be locked in at least for a few days; it's coming from an easterly direction, which caused snow streamers along most of the East coast of the country in 2010.

If the M50 gets caught under one, which is going happen due to it's size, then that's going to cause a bit of panic and chaos to those nervous about driving in those conditions; not to mention reckless drivers who'll get cocky saying it's grand and risk spinning out and causing more chaos! I know there's more to Ireland than Dublin, but have you seen how they react on here when they get a few snowflakes.... the place goes into meltdown, and to be fair they have the numbers!

You'll also see pictures of cars and trucks in snowy ditches, having failed in attempts to get up snowy/icy hills all along the east coast; it's inevitable with this kind of set up.

Of course some parts of the country will be unaffected by snow, with people saying it's just a bit of cold; but these temperatures upper and lower in March are unheard of for Ireland. I guarantee you'll be be sick of hearing the phrase, "Jaaysuuss... I haven't felt cold like this in years/before" by the end of next week!

I do definitely see this as an East/S.East/N.East ish, set up for chances of serious snow, but the longer this cold setup continues, the greater risk to the rest of the country.

Some of the best weather charts in years for a cold/snowy setup are now just 72-96 hrs away, that is in a VERY reliable time frame. I suppose it depends on your definition of anti-climatic really, but it's definitely going to be very interesting watching it all unfold whatever happens.

munsterlegend · 24-02-2018 10:40AM

kod87 wrote: »

the GFS brings in all sorts of milder modification for the southern half of the country by next weekend, making snow more marginal in those situations.

But the GFS has been chopping and changing the low pressures position in all recent runs so it's far from set in stone. The ECM this morning was having none of this.

The UK met office not backing GFS solution either and don't expect it to track as far north as modelled.

dacogawa · 24-02-2018 10:43AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Met Eireann have been mentioning this event for the last week ....... but so far have not issued warnings as it’s too soon to do so . They never issues warnings until about 2 days before an event , probably because of accuracy and likelihood of changes etc.

I do know their 24/48 hour rule, not sure they have been mentioning it for the last week though, more of a mention about cold temperatures. What I was pointing out is their wording from Wednesday-Friday, a long way out and phrases like "struggling to get above zero by day", "Widespread snow showers" & "some disruptive accumulations are likely" is very un-met.ie at that timescale.

Calibos · 24-02-2018 10:43AM

hairyslug wrote: »

How bad are we expecting it to be around north wexford/gorey, my 3 kids are all too young to remember any significant snow so it will hopefully be a nice surprise to them.

You are going to need a true North Easterly or North North Easterly at your location. If the wind direction is an East North Easterly as forecast I'm afraid Gorey will be in the Snow shadow of Wales. I wouldn't go telling the kids to get excited yet I'm afraid. It'll be bitter ice days for you guaranteed but any Irish Sea snow streamers for you will depend on wind direction. You probably have a better chance of a dumping near the weekend when that Atlantic low pushes up from the South West.

beefburrito · 24-02-2018 10:45AM

North Clare's going to get pasted.

Musicman2000 · 24-02-2018 10:46AM

Snow angel wrote: »

Please excuse my ignorance on this but people have mention the gfs shows blizzard like conditions in the FI next weekend. I was wondering how this can happen when the 850 temps are only -4 at best in the south? Can someone explain to which chart shows these conditions as I only understand 2-3 of the charts personally. Just want to learn, not doubting anyone.

It’s not going to happen like that , you are better off ignoring that chart completely.

Max Prophet · 24-02-2018 10:47AM

V unremarkable weather update on RTE 1 TV. Dunno why they aren't preparing people more.

CeilingFly · 24-02-2018 10:49AM

dacogawa wrote: »

I do know their 24/48 hour rule, not sure they have been mentioning it for the last week though, more of a mention about cold temperatures. What I was pointing out is their wording from Wednesday-Friday, a long way out and phrases like "struggling to get above zero by day", "Widespread snow showers" & "some disruptive accumulations are likely" is very un-met.ie at that timescale.

But they are damed if they do and damed if they don't.

The media and many here are hyping this into the stratosphere.

I'm old enougha nd wise enough to understand that weather patterns can change dramatically over a few days especially as Ireland is on the outer edge of this system.

Currently UK met not forecasting snow for Wales or western UK, just for central and east England. Yes, it will pick up moisture from the Irish sea and snow showers will come in, but until Monday / Tuesday, the "disruptive snow" element cannot be forecasted with any accuracy whatsoever.

And if there's a slight change, we may get feck all snow and there'll be a lot of red faces here.

There won't be any red faces in the media as sensationalist hysterics are part and parcel of their trade these days and truth and balance never matter.

B0jangles · 24-02-2018 10:50AM

Calibos wrote: »

You are going to need a true North Easterly or North North Easterly at your location. If the wind direction is an East North Easterly as forecast I'm afraid Gorey will be in the Snow shadow of Wales. I wouldn't go telling the kids to get excited yet I'm afraid. It'll be bitter ice days for you guaranteed but any Irish Sea snow streamers for you will depend on wind direction. You probably have a better chance of a dumping near the weekend when that Atlantic low pushes up from the South West.

Break it to me gently; is the Bray Snow Shield aka the Isle of Man going to wreck this?

ilovetorun · 24-02-2018 10:53AM

Fingers crossed waterford will get lucky, what are the chances?

silverharp · 24-02-2018 10:55AM

met.ie 3C and rain for tuesday for dublin

sryanbruen · 24-02-2018 10:56AM

CeilingFly wrote: »

The media and many here are hyping this into the stratosphere.

Oh I'm sorry for telling you scientific facts.

Not to mention, your post here (the part about being old and wise) contradicts what you said in December.

CeilingFly wrote: »

Can you state your expertise in metrology that gives you such a standing that you can question experts?

I've very little knowledge, but I do know that Ireland has some of the most changeable weather in the world. Atmosphere is constantly moving, the Atlantic and the coastal mountains can mean last minute changes especially in volatile systems such as this.

Its also why its called a "forecast" not a "certainty"

force eleven · 24-02-2018 10:56AM

smallwonder wrote: »

It would be so weird if Donegal escaped this event!! I'm hoping the models change track slightly in our favour.

Donegal gets deep snow most winters from the north or west. Much more reliable than the Beast. Time to spread out the fun a little. If fun it is eventually....

cherryghost · 24-02-2018 10:57AM

This mornings GFS wants a 2 day battleground over Ireland next weekend, meaning likely prolonged heavy snowfall for the most of the country if current forecasts pay off.

Calibos · 24-02-2018 10:57AM

B0jangles wrote: »

Break it to me gently; is the Bray Snow Shield aka the Isle of Man going to wreck this?

If the forecast is correct and the winds are coming from an ENE direction then Dublin and Wicklow are in the bullseye for Streamers from the Irish Sea with the longest sea fetch which is geographically possible for us. ie. Morecambe Bay in the UK with a clear run for streamer formation all the way across the Irish Sea to us. A pure North Easterly puts us in the Snow shadow of the IOM and then a NNE puts us in the line of fire again.

kod87 · 24-02-2018 10:58AM

cherryghost wrote: »

This mornings GFS wants a 2 day battleground over Ireland next weekend, meaning likely prolonged heavy snowfall for the most of the country if current forecasts pay off.

would it be snowfall though with uppers of 0 to -3, the lower temps will be low but above freezing at that stage? To me it would become a wintry mess at that stage.

molly dolly · 24-02-2018 11:01AM

My dad due to go from Wicklow hills near Shillelagh to Kilkenny for eye surgery next Thursday ðŸ˜Œ highly unlikely - I've warned him and mum have all their medication in. Mums freezer could survive a nuclear winter its so well stocked. Just did my own prep but ordered oil top up last Tuesday still no delivery ðŸ˜©

George Sunsnow · 24-02-2018 11:01AM

Calibos wrote: »

If the forecast is correct and the winds are coming from an ENE direction then Dublin and Wicklow are in the bullseye for Streamers from the Irish Sea with the longest sea fetch which is geographically possible for us. ie. Morecambe Bay in the UK with a clear run for streamer formation all the way across the Irish Sea to us. A pure North Easterly puts us in the Snow shadow of the IOM and then a NNE puts us in the line of fire again.

I’d expect either an ENE or NE to give max fetch in the Arklow area
East is usually dryer but the sex in the mix this time is quite literally kinks in the flow
You get disturbances or shallow lows developing in the flow and all previous rules go out the window

Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

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Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) READ MOD NOTE POST #1