Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Russman wrote: »

Now, maybe its head in the sand stuff on their part and there's no excuse for wilful ignorance, but I fear they're in for a seriously rude awakening on 30th March.

This is a very real risk. It is what the UK civil service has been telling the politicians for years, and for that reason, I don't think it will happen. May is aware of the risk, and she is bluffing.



But if it does happen, there is a very real further risk of civil unrest much more serious than the miners strike, poll tax riots and the 2011 London riots rolled into one. I would not be surprised to see the face of UK politics completely changed in unpredictable ways. Perhaps a 20 year Labour government? The end of the United Kingdom? Perhaps a new English Gammon Party?

downcow wrote: »

undemocratic conglomerate of 27 states.

Unelected head of state.
Unelected second house
House elected by first past the post.
Minority government destroying constitutional norms.

How is it the EU that's undemocratic?

downcow wrote: »

Did they give any sense of what this ‘5%’ would look like. I can’t understand how it can be percentage. I think it is all or nothing. ie while it requires both Eu and UK to end it then any of the 28 countries can ensure it continues for ever. That’s the issue as I see it ie it will be permanent

They didn't, but it worried me slightly to be honest. May's deal should go, and her with it. She has all the makings of an Erdoğan-lite.
Her words and actions are an affront to leadership and democracy.

downcow wrote: »

I appreciate most people’s efforts on here to be honest about how they see it. Unfortunately as someone who certainly is not a dup voter and supported gfa and enjoy many friendships across the border, I see no way out of this.
I don’t believe there is an example anywhere in the world of a nation giving up a permanent veto on how the border should be managed to another state never mind such an undemocratic conglomerate of 27 states. It makes no sense and can’t happen.
And yes I understand why you all desire it.
My guess of chances going forward for what’s it worth, having read all your comments
Renegotiated deal 40%
No deal exit 40%
Mays deal 10%
Remain 5%
Something none of us have thought about 5%

That is all fine, but you continually seem to place the blame onto the EU for this. This is what Brexit means, remember TM and Brexit means Brexit?

Well BRexit means either giving up the regulatory alignment of NI or installing a hard border. But, still, the UK cannot come to terms with the choice they face and want someone else to simply magic it away for them.

Enda Kenny tried to warn them, even TM tried to warn them before the vote. But the voters of the UK knew better (and since they hate being told they didn't know what they voted for it is only fair to accept that they did and they understood this would be the outcome).

The HoC seem aghast at this outcome, but it was always going to be this choice. Nothing substantial has changed from the EU side (although they have given in the many TM demands IMO).

So if it is really as unsolvable as you claim, then the only reasonable action for the UK to take is to accept they screwed up, and cancel A50. But they won't do that as it makes them feel bad so onwards we go into the abyss.

downcow wrote:

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control. For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

downcow wrote:

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.

One of the main drivers in creating the Single Market was a lady called Margaret Thatcher.

downcow wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is all fine, but you continually seem to place the blame onto the EU for this. This is what Brexit means, remember TM and Brexit means Brexit?

Well BRexit means either giving up the regulatory alignment of NI or installing a hard border. But, still, the UK cannot come to terms with the choice they face and want someone else to simply magic it away for them.

Enda Kenny tried to warn them, even TM tried to warn them before the vote. But the voters of the UK knew better (and since they hate being told they didn't know what they voted for it is only fair to accept that they did and they understood this would be the outcome).

The HoC seem aghast at this outcome, but it was always going to be this choice. Nothing substantial has changed from the EU side (although they have given in the many TM demands IMO).

So if it is really as unsolvable as you claim, then the only reasonable action for the UK to take is to accept they screwed up, and cancel A50. But they won't do that as it makes them feel bad so onwards we go into the abyss.

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

Checks will happen in the channel. Both sides are happy with that. Both sides say they don't want it at the ni border so that leaves technology and Irish sea. The UK want technology but don't want to show what it is or any feasibility studies. As soon as they do the sea border can go.

I see this as the EU completely willing to accept the UKs solution when they have the actual product. The UK is pulling a huff and swearing they can have it without actually having it.

The UK is free to leave if they want some control back but if they could provide a solution it would be handy. The EU has been available for 2 years to negotiate and has presented a range of potential options for the UK. The UK has provided a backstop that will turn into a hard border in a few years time despite their claims of not wanting KT.

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

Of course the UK are to blame. Who else? Everything was working fine (from a border POV) prior to the ref, then something changed. Can't quite put my finger on it.

So the UK have decided to leave the EU, and 1 of the many consequences of that is that a decision has to be made in terms of the border in NI.

The EU have given the UK plenty of options, it is totally false to say they have not negotiated. They originally agreed with TM that a backstop would be in place unless and until.

TM then had second thoughts and wanted a UK wide CU. EU initially said no, but agreed as they see this as getting the solution overall. Ah, but the backstop is still in place, so the UK doesn't want that either.

So basically, the UK want the border to simply be ignored, allowed to remain as it is as if nothing has happened. But what about the integrity of the EU market? The UK answers to that is that is not that important and certainly less important than their problems so the EU need to solve the problem.

Kicking and screaming? You mean the democratically elected representatives of the UK had no say it what was happening within the EU? Despite being one of the senior members? Despite having all these advantages that will see them become the leading trade negotiator in the world post Brexit?

This is another fundamental dicotomy at the heart of the Brexit argument. Appartently the UK is so big and so important that EU will have option but to not only negotiate but to agree with the UK demands, yet the reason they must leave is that the EU do not value the UK and have worked completely against their interests for the last 40+ years.

The EU have said that they are willing to allow the border to remain open with additional checks in Irish Sea. That that seems a no go either. So no border, no checks on the Irish Sea, no regulatory alignment, no FoM.

One side does seem to be trying, whilst the other seems to be totally focused on only one answer.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The latest episode of Brexit republic is great

Brexit Republic Ep 22 18-12-18

12/18/18 by RTÉ:Ireland

Episode: https://www.rte.ie/cspodcasts/media.mp3?c1=2&c2=16951747&ns_site=test&ns_type=clickin&rte_vs_ct=aud&rte_vs_sc=pod&rte_mt_sec=radio&rte_vs_sn=radio1&rte_mt_pub_dt=2018-12-18&rte_mt_prg_name=test-brexitrepublic&title=Brexit%20Republic%20Ep%2022%2018-12-18&c7=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2018%2F1218%2F20181218_webexclusi-brexitrepublic-brexitrepu_c21480725_21480730_232_.mp3&r=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2018%2F1218%2F20181218_webexclusi-brexitrepublic-brexitrepu_c21480725_21480730_232_.mp3

On Thursday, December 13 Sir Ivan Rogers delivered a hard-hitting speech to the University of Liverpool's Heseltine Institute. He had a robust analysis of the current Brexit debate most recent speech. The Heseltine Institute has kindly provided us with the audio of the speech for this podcast.

It is excellent. Here is a transcript:https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

downcow wrote: »

So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

If a hard border (at least on paper) is needed because of a crashout, that is bad, but it can be undone directly in the next phase of talks where the UK come looking for a free trade deal: item 1: pay your bills. Item 2, citizens rights. Item 3, backstop. Item 4, free trade agreement.


But if we agree to a hard border to allow May to pass her deal, that is much worse, because it is much harder to undo.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is excellent. Here is a transcript:https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

It is quite a sobering listen (I listened to the Brexit republic podcast).

What it does show, to me anyway, is that this really is only the start of the problems. A fudge may well be found but the real problems for the UK is that everything they gain now will simply add to the price to be paid for a FTA.

That is why the position of some brexiteers, that they simply withhold the £39bn, is the fallacy it clearly is. If they crash out, when the FTA negotiations begin the 1st thing will be the repayment of outstanding monies.

And the fact is that throughout this entire process, the UK political establishment has been lying consistently to the public. Even at this stage, they don't want to paint the real picture. That a FTA will come with significant conditions, such as possible issues with Gibraltar, regulatory alignment without any say, possible payments for access to certain EU bodies etc.

None of this has been adequately addressed. Even the remainers are not being honest. It is quite clear that the UK public are not happy with the way the EU is going, simply remaining is not an adequate answer. They need to listen to the concerns, both real and imagined, and try to formulate a way to overcome them.

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

The UK signed up to everything that they were 'dragged kicking and screaming into' and everything they didn't want to join they got exemptions for.

The UK had a veto all along for major changes to the way the EU works. Claiming otherwise is just false.

And of the things the UK claim they lost control over (their immigration policies for example) they still had full control over non EU migration (which half the brexit voters don't seem to realise) and there were mechanisms built into the EU treaties that allowed the UK to increase restrictions on internal EU migration that the UK didn't feel they needed to implement.

This narrative of the big bad EU bullying the poor UK is totally fabricated and now that they're being forced to integrate their fantasy into reality, the chickens are coming home to roost.