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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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    #2732
    26000 Elephants
    Registered Users Posts: 3,152 ✭✭✭26000 Elephants


    Bad timing for UK expecting an easy WTO ride:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-12/u-s-is-said-to-raise-prospect-of-blocking-passage-of-wto-budget


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    #2733
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,507 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Russman wrote: »
    Very interesting article by TC.
    I suspect the UK just don't expect to be treated like a bona fide 3rd country on 1st Feb, more like a trusted neighbour, and everything can be done with a wink and a nod because ".....after all, we were members up til yesterday, sure you know us etc etc.....". They're in for a rude awakening methinks.

    Although, that said, the Tory ministers will hardly be anxious to broadcast the concessions they'll have to make in the negotiations, and Harry from Huddersfield will have next to zero interest in the FTA discussions and details, so, with a compliant press, they may well be able to spin it that they "got the job done" and that'll be enough for the leavers.

    What I don't understand is this position that because of current alignment then a FTA will be relatively easy. Surely that means that the alignment will need to be maintained,so the UK will be a rule taker and lost their ability to influence. Ireland will have a greater say in the future of UK trade than the UK will!

    It goes completely against the point of Brexit.


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    #2734
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,195 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    briany wrote: »
    Isn't Boris Johnson's deal really just no-deal by the back door? Pundits are sceptical that an FTA can be arranged by the end of 2020, and Johnson is currently saying he will not extend the transition period. If the Conservatives get a large enough majority, they could perhaps shoot down the possibility of adding amendments to the deal that would give parliament more control. In that case, it's really a shrewd move for the BP to support it. Better for them that no-deal happens a little later than not at all.

    There will be an extension, anything to the contrary is bare faced lying or stupidity.


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    #2735
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,507 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Yeah, I just cannot see anyway in which there won't be an extension. The UK have no climbed down 3 times on No Deal, even after Johnson declared that under no circumstances would that happen. So clearly, despite the rhetoric, the UK know fully well that they simply cannot leave with nothing, as it solves nothing.

    And thus the EU have no incentive to chase a quick agreement, particularly given that the UK have shown time and again throughout this process that everything needs to be watertight to avoid the UK trying to wiggle free.

    Just look at Johnson telling NI that there will be no checks, no forms etc. This only a few weeks after the EU had, once again, compromised to help get a deal. Why would they think the UK will act any different? All the pressure will be on Johnson and the Tories. If they land their majority, they have no one but themselves to look at when things don't work out as planned.

    But it is necessary to maintain the idea that no extension will be sought as it allows them to peddle the lie that Brexit is almost done and voting for Labour will mean an extension.


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    #2736
    Shelga
    Registered Users Posts: 3,002 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    But it is necessary to maintain the idea that no extension will be sought as it allows them to peddle the lie that Brexit is almost done and voting for Labour will mean an extension.

    Michael Gove was doing the rounds on the radio stations this morning, again pushing this nonsense. “Give us a majority and Brexit will be done and dusted in a couple of months”- he makes it sound like we’ll never hear about it again. The presenter pushed him on what will happen if an FTA is not concluded within a year (which is so obviously a fantasy) but Gove just responded with deflective rubbish about how no one thought Johnson would get a deal and he did. (Even though it’s 95% the same as May’s deal, and weakens the Union, something Johnson said no PM would ever do).

    Why do presenters just move on after getting ridiculous answers like this? Do not let him wriggle out of telling people what will happen if no FTA is concluded.

    Honestly, if people look at the likes of Gove and think he represents their values, they deserve everything that’s coming to them.


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    #2737
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,728 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Surely that means that the alignment will need to be maintained,so the UK will be a rule taker and lost their ability to influence. Ireland will have a greater say in the future of UK trade than the UK will!

    When all is said and done, it probably won't matter. If the electorate return a Johonson-Cummings government on the strength of a promise to get Brexit done and the WA is ratified by 31st Jan, Brexit will have been "done" and Average Joe Bloggs will go back to worrying about which of his favourite soccer player is being transferred where.

    Johnson can (will) cave on the "no further extension" promise, and will (probably) cave on the issues of alignment and divergence, and the UK will be a sort of Switzerland, fully independent and sovereign and near-perfectly aligned with the EU.

    Average Joe won't care because he can still get cheap flights to Benidorm; soft Leavers won't care because Brexit has been "done"; soft Remainers won't care because they got a BRINO-Brexit; Farage will be delighted because he can continue to rant about Britain being sold out by the Tories and still shackled by the EU; and hard-core Remainers will grudgingly accept the new status quo because at least it wasn't as bad as it could have been.


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    #2738
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,270 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Another Brexit win!
    At an award ceremony in Germany, the entrepreneur announced: “We've decided to put the Tesla Giga factory Europe in the Berlin area.”

    And, speaking to Auto Express, he blamed Brexit uncertainty for his decision to drop plans to build a research and development base in the UK, which will now also go to Germany.

    “Brexit made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK,” Mr Musk said, referring to Tesla’s new battery and electric vehicle.
    Then again it's Elon so how long that factory will be around can be discussed but I'm sure an German manufacturer will happily take it over when Tesla goes belly up.


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    #2739
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,728 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Oh look: another Brexit dividend ... for Germany: Tesla factory to be built in Berlin
    Speaking to Auto Express after making the announcement, Musk said: “Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a gigafactory in the UK.”

    Edit: Nody beat me to it!


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    #2740
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,421 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    When all is said and done, it probably won't matter. If the electorate return a Johonson-Cummings government on the strength of a promise to get Brexit done and the WA is ratified by 31st Jan, Brexit will have been "done" and Average Joe Bloggs will go back to worrying about which of his favourite soccer player is being transferred where.

    Johnson can (will) cave on the "no further extension" promise, and will (probably) cave on the issues of alignment and divergence, and the UK will be a sort of Switzerland, fully independent and sovereign and near-perfectly aligned with the EU.

    Average Joe won't care because he can still get cheap flights to Benidorm; soft Leavers won't care because Brexit has been "done"; soft Remainers won't care because they got a BRINO-Brexit; Farage will be delighted because he can continue to rant about Britain being sold out by the Tories and still shackled by the EU; and hard-core Remainers will grudgingly accept the new status quo because at least it wasn't as bad as it could have been.

    The bold bit.

    I think that will be the attitude of nearly all, 'It is not as bad as it could have been'.

    But conversely, 'It is not as good as it was!'

    They are heading into a lose, lose, lose situation.


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    #2741
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,728 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I think that will be the attitude of nearly all, 'It is not as bad as it could have been'.

    But conversely, 'It is not as good as it was!'

    They are heading into a lose, lose, lose situation.

    And that, I would argue, is the long-term effect of FPTP: it's all about fighting "the enemy", getting one over on the other side, or - in a worst-case scenario - limiting your losses. Even faced with a hard Brexit, few of the parties - major or minor - are willing to engage in consensual politics.

    As has been said many times over the last couple of years, and again in the Tony Connelly article linked above, this will be the first time any two trade partners have set out to negotiate a deal that is worse than what they have already.


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    #2742
    liamtech
    Registered Users Posts: 2,296 ✭✭✭liamtech


    In my opinion you just have to look at beaconsfield constituency to see why the Tories are gonna win, and brexit will be done.

    Dominic Grieve, probably the most prominent Tory Remainer still standing - now as a Unite to remain candidate

    Lib Dems have stood aside pragmatically to try and keep him in the HOC - his tory credentials are also so useful for attacking Tory policy

    But despite his remain credentials, Labour are still standing against him. So to are the greens btw which is extremely unhelpful. Beaconsfield is going to prove an example of what will happen in the UK writ large, in my opinion..

    Remain Co-operation is crucial to winning this, and it needs to be completely pragmatic, and unified across the UK - but most importantly it needs to include Labour - honestly im watching Beaconsfield closely as we approach the point of having full lists of standing candidates in this election. If Labour keep this up they will be responsible for Brexit going through

    Otherwise this FPTP farce is gonna see a big Tory majority, and Brexit done - and who knows what we will see next year in the second round of negotiations

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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    #2743
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,507 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    I don't really blame Labour, or indeed the lib-dems for the stanch they are taking. To stand down heir own candidates in particular seats goes against everything on which the UK politics is based. The Lib-Dems fully believe they can win massive gains and thus out them in a position to have a massive say in a future government. Labour believe they will win a majority.

    Just like the Tories never contemplated a deal with TBP, but lucky for the Farage folded and they now have the right all to themselves (IMO Farage will, even if they put up candidates in the Non 317, won't attack Johnson or the deal or the Tories and as such much of the reason to vote BP will simply fade away).

    The parties still haven't grasped that this really is a cross party issue. TM never got it, Johnson certainly doesn't, so it is no wonder that the others haven't either. Whilst they may agree to a pact for this election, Lib-Dems know that heloing Labour get elected will result in Corbyn carrying out his nationalisation wishes. I they do not want that. It is too big an issue for them to get over.


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    #2744
    Shelga
    Registered Users Posts: 3,002 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    I don't really blame Labour, or indeed the lib-dems for the stanch they are taking. To stand down heir own candidates in particular seats goes against everything on which the UK politics is based. The Lib-Dems fully believe they can win massive gains and thus out them in a position to have a massive say in a future government. Labour believe they will win a majority.

    Just like the Tories never contemplated a deal with TBP, but lucky for the Farage folded and they now have the right all to themselves (IMO Farage will, even if they put up candidates in the Non 317, won't attack Johnson or the deal or the Tories and as such much of the reason to vote BP will simply fade away).

    The parties still haven't grasped that this really is a cross party issue. TM never got it, Johnson certainly doesn't, so it is no wonder that the others haven't either. Whilst they may agree to a pact for this election, Lib-Dems know that heloing Labour get elected will result in Corbyn carrying out his nationalisation wishes. I they do not want that. It is too big an issue for them to get over.

    This is why having an election to definitively sort Brexit is daft, and only works to the advantage of the Tories.

    I think we’re in for a majority of 350+ seats. UK is doomed but at least the deal will be done, from an Irish perspective. Until 2021...


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    #2745
    Bannasidhe
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 19,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    I don't really blame Labour, or indeed the lib-dems for the stanch they are taking. To stand down heir own candidates in particular seats goes against everything on which the UK politics is based. The Lib-Dems fully believe they can win massive gains and thus out them in a position to have a massive say in a future government. Labour believe they will win a majority.

    Just like the Tories never contemplated a deal with TBP, but lucky for the Farage folded and they now have the right all to themselves (IMO Farage will, even if they put up candidates in the Non 317, won't attack Johnson or the deal or the Tories and as such much of the reason to vote BP will simply fade away).

    The parties still haven't grasped that this really is a cross party issue. TM never got it, Johnson certainly doesn't, so it is no wonder that the others haven't either. Whilst they may agree to a pact for this election, Lib-Dems know that heloing Labour get elected will result in Corbyn carrying out his nationalisation wishes. I they do not want that. It is too big an issue for them to get over.

    To add to that - were Labour to stand aside then that is an admission that this GE is all about Brexit - which the LP don't want it to be. They want it to be about what is happening internally within UK society - and let's face it, internally the UK is in a bit of a mess at the moment. Some of it Brexit related sure, but a lot of it is the repercussions of Tory cuts and austerity measures.
    Grieve was on board with those policies.

    For the LP to stand aside in favour of pro-austerity candidate just because he is also a remainer would be to say Brexit is the only game worth playing in town so jog along to the food banks as your personal struggles just don't matter right now.

    That goes against everything Labour are saying they are for...


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    #2746
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    The lib dems seem to be taking a big risk to me. Can understand they are standing firm in their position and clearly blaming labour completely for any failure to secure an alliance. Thats all very well but as the self styled party of remain, how will that actually play out when they are subsequently staring down the barrel of no deal again? Blame game not of much comfort at that point.


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    #2747
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    It's now abundantly clear that the UK is solidly behind a Government of Brexit.
    Tories soar into 14-point poll lead after Nigel Farage declares election 'amnesty' - but Brexit Party leader defies pleas from allies for more concessions saying he WILL field candidates in Labour marginals
    New YouGov survey puts the Tories on 42 per cent and Labour on 28 per cent
    Poll was conducted after Nigel Farage said he was standing aside in Tory seats

    No revocation; no second referendum - just a get on with Brexit vote.

    I suspect the chasm between the Tory's and Labour will grow once the absurdity of Labour's position becomes clearer in the minds of voters.

    Great days for pro-Brexit supporters!


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    #2748
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,416 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Labour look like losing seats in their working class heartlands. They are more likely to come back with less than be near a majority.

    The Lib Dems look like gaining a few but their poll support is back. The big jump is looking too much now.

    If they do not stand back in key areas for each they'll be also rans.

    The hoped for outcome in Dublin and Brussels will be a Johnson majority.

    The opposition in England seem comfortable with that.


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    #2749
    weemcd
    Registered Users Posts: 6,420 ✭✭✭weemcd


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    It's now abundantly clear that the UK is solidly behind a Government of Brexit.



    No revocation; no second referendum - just a get on with Brexit vote.

    I suspect the chasm between the Tory's and Labour will grow once the absurdity of Labour's position becomes clearer in the minds of voters.

    Great days for pro-Brexit supporters!

    If you put money behind the value of polls. I personally do not.


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    #2750
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    It's now abundantly clear that the UK is solidly behind a Government of Brexit.



    No revocation; no second referendum - just a get on with Brexit vote.

    I suspect the chasm between the Tory's and Labour will grow once the absurdity of Labour's position becomes clearer in the minds of voters.

    Great days for pro-Brexit supporters!

    Of course its a great day if they latch onto the poll putting them 14 points ahead and completely ignore the one (survation i think) only putting them 6 ahead. Sure who knows which one is right. Maybe neither of them.


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    #2751
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,416 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    It's now abundantly clear that the UK is solidly behind a Government of Brexit.



    No revocation; no second referendum - just a get on with Brexit vote.

    I suspect the chasm between the Tory's and Labour will grow once the absurdity of Labour's position becomes clearer in the minds of voters.

    Great days for pro-Brexit supporters!

    Some of the more lunatic proposals passed at the Labour conference have been left out of their manifesto.

    They'd drop a hundred seats if they hadn't.


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    #2752
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Of course its a great day if they latch onto the poll putting them 14 points ahead and completely ignore the one (survation i think) only putting them 6 ahead. Sure who knows which one is right. Maybe neither of them.

    By and large though, polls show a consistent lead of 7-10 points for the Tory's.

    This 14-point lead comes on the back of Farage's decision; so it's not unreasonable to think it approximates to the true value.


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    #2753
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    By and large though, polls show a consistent lead of 7-10 points for the Tory's.

    This 14-point lead comes on the back of Farage's decision; so it's not unreasonable to think it approximates to the true value.

    That poll may just reflect increased tory support in areas where BP is standing down. It doesnt help them in their target labour seats without which they wont win a majority. So predictions that these figures are suggesting massive tory majorities are really just silly. Basically right back in 2017 territory again.


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    #2754
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    That poll may just reflect increased tory support in areas where BP is standing down. It doesnt help them in their target labour seats without which they wont win a majority. So predictions that these figures are suggesting massive tory majorities are really just silly. Basically right back in 2017 territory again.

    Isn't this just a case where, when the Tory's poll well, the excuses are "we can't trust polls" and that "it's not what it seems", but when Labour suddenly climb in the polls, it's "the Tory's should watch out" and "Labour are doing well"?

    I've noticed this trend in the past. Poll legitimacy is questioned depending on whether the results favour the reader's politics.

    If Labour were at 42 in any poll, with the Tory's on 28, I think we'd see a very different reaction.


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    #2755
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Isn't this just a case where, when the Tory's poll well, the excuses are "we can't trust polls" and that "it's not what it seems", but when Labour suddenly climb in the polls, it's "the Tory's should watch out" and "Labour are doing well"?

    I've noticed this trend in the past. Poll legitimacy is questioned depending on whether the results favour the reader's politics.

    If Labour were at 42 in any poll, with the Tory's on 28, I think we'd see a very different reaction.

    I haven't seen much labour spin on the polls, maybe for obvious reasons, but i dont fundamentally disagree with most of that. Of course thats just how they work.


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    #2756
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,360 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    In the ten polls taken in November, the Tories are averaging 39% while Labour is averaging 28%.


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    #2757
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    In your previous posts you have made it clear that you support Boris despite admitting that he is a blatant liar

    You also have no issues with "democracy" being subvented by foreign money and illegal methods.

    You claim one thing above but then have a posting history here of doing the exact opposite of supporting democracy.

    I believe almost all politicians are blatant liars, or are, at the very least, very economical with the truth.

    I have "no issues with democracy being subvented by foreign money and illegal methods" according to what evidence? Otherwise, you may need to retract.


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    #2758
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,750 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I believe almost all politicians are blatant liars, or are, at the very least, very economical with the truth.

    I have "no issues with democracy being subvented by foreign money and illegal methods" according to what evidence? Otherwise, you may need to retract.

    No it seems you are ok with democracy where the votes go your way.

    I'd garner if the vote was reverse 52% remain you'd be tooting from a different hymn sheet. Classic Eurosceptic . Its all waffle when you scratch just beneath the surface.

    I can see it now. No way man that's not a majority we need a second referendum ......


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    #2759
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Dytalus wrote: »

    Regarding the illegal methods.

    As for the foreign money and interference, the UK Government is withholding the report into that so we cannot see what's in it until after the election. But there's some indications that their social media campaigns had an effect.

    That's not what you claimed.

    You claimed that I have "no issues with democracy being subvented by foreign money and illegal methods". Where is your evidence for this claim?


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    #2760
    Dytalus
    Registered Users Posts: 459 ✭✭Dytalus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    That's not what you claimed.

    You claimed that I have "no issues with democracy being subvented by foreign money and illegal methods". Where is your evidence for this claim?

    That wasn't my claim, and I misread your post as asking for evidence of the 'foreign money and illegal methods'. Apologies for misreading.

    Pretty cool of you to ignore the rest of my post though.


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    #2761
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Of course its a great day if they latch onto the poll putting them 14 points ahead and completely ignore the one (survation i think) only putting them 6 ahead. Sure who knows which one is right. Maybe neither of them.

    Certainly, the Britain Elects poll tracker has the average lead down to 8.6%:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1194569570520051712


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