Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

growleaves · 20-04-2020 08:03PM

moonage wrote: »

I wonder how many of these "Covid deaths" are from people dying with it rather than of it.

If the primary cause of death was COPD or heart disease but the person also had Covid are they included in the Covid death figures?

They are of course included in the figures. In NYC people who didn't test positive for covid were included in the figures merely for having URTI-like symptoms - despite that URTIs are the biggest killer of the elderly and very infirm in the world.

ZX7R · 20-04-2020 08:03PM

Funny how all the posters that want stricter restrictions or extension of restrictions not one of them posted about the riot's in the Paris suburbs that started Saturday night and continued last night kicking of again at the moment and spreading to other regions all because of there extended restrictions and reports of police brutality

timsey tiger · 20-04-2020 08:03PM

growleaves wrote: »

I've never such an insistence on direct cause-and-effect for complex medical phenomena.

Is every case of coronavirus directly attributable to political and social policies, their timing and implementation?

Yes.

trapp · 20-04-2020 08:06PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What key trends?

The only trend that matters is deaths which is rising.

You also fail to realise they aren't even testing community cases.

And we're in lockdown in the middle of the first of what is predicted to be 8 or 9 waves.

Some home truths for you to chew on.

You haven't a clue really do you.

For a start the 77 reported deaths today occurred on various days over a period of time.

It has been repeated by the experts, of which you are not, many times that the death rate is falling.

Go and find your tinfoil my poor friend.

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:06PM

ZX7R wrote: »

Funny how all the posters that want stricter restrictions or extension of restrictions not one of them posted about the riot's in the Paris suburbs that started Saturday night and continued last night kicking of again at the moment and spreading to other regions all because of there extended restrictions and reports of police brutality

Instead they posted about countries where the restrictions are being respected and the stats are looking better and people feel safer when restrictions are lifted

timsey tiger · 20-04-2020 08:06PM

moonage wrote: »

I wonder how many of these "Covid deaths" are from people dying with it rather than of it.

If the primary cause of death was COPD or heart disease but the person also had Covid are they included in the Covid death figures?

They are dying from it. It is not a chronic condition, like the other two you mentioned. If they had it and got crushed by a meteor, then they would of course have died with it and it should not be down as the cause of death.

joe_99 · 20-04-2020 08:06PM

hmmm wrote: »

They publish a couple of figures, including ICU and hospitalisations. ICU generally happens around 1 to 2 weeks after infection in the worst cases, and that has been dropping for a few days. That's a good indication we peaked around a week and a half ago.

This guy is compiling some good stats - https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1252299409297203200

Great. Looks like we are on the right path.

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:07PM

trapp wrote: »

You haven't a clue really do you.

For a start the 77 reported deaths today occurred on various days over a period of time.

It has been repeated by the experts, of which you are not, many times that the death rate is falling.

Go and find your tinfoil my poor friend.

the only one who seems not to understand is you I'm afraid

Upforthematch · 20-04-2020 08:08PM

easypazz wrote: »

Deaths are not increasing though.

You've mentioned this several times.

Your language is so vague / inaccurate it is irritating.

We have 687 deaths notified as of today.

The total deaths will continue to increase.

The acceleration in the rate of the increase in deaths might be slowing - or not - it is very hard to tell with the reporting rates.

Even if the acceleration slows, the number of deaths is still increasing!!

I think 687 deaths is an awful lot to be honest for the size of our country and is a post-fact indication that something was/is still now going wrong - unfortunately it points to the nursing home sector.

Not in Kansas · 20-04-2020 08:09PM

bfa1509 wrote: »

This is worse than Italy and Uk (but not Spain's) record for most deaths on one day if you take it as deaths per 1 million of population:

Worst days:

Spain - 20.21 p/m
Ireland - 15.7 p/m
Italy - 15.31 p/m
UK - 14.8 p/m
USA - 7.7 p/m

I'm going to have to ditch this thread. I can't take anymore of these posts. All of these countries are recording deaths differently. It's been said dozens of times on these threads. Do we have to do this every day?

terenc · 20-04-2020 08:09PM

There is no lock-down in this country, people are not keeping their social distance,many supermarkets are failing to comply with the regulations, shops open that should be shut, the Garda are powerless our politicians made sure that, builders still working , airports still open (where did the 500 people come from yesterday) any checkups on their medical condition, ferries still operating with foot passengers and cars. Just some of the reasons why we are topping the table, there is a sizable majority in this country who should hang our heads in shame for there actions.

podgeandrodge · 20-04-2020 08:10PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

They themselves might not put up with that piece for too long.

growleaves wrote: »

Isolation can hasten the onset of dementia, increase the risk of hearts attacks and create other health problems in the elderly.

Yep, agree with you. You can't simply isolate elderly people on a long term basis to protect them from themselves.

hmmm · 20-04-2020 08:12PM

terenc wrote: »

There is no lock-down in this country, people are not keeping their social distance,many supermarkets are failing to comply with the regulations, shops open that should be shut, the Garda are powerless our politicians made sure that, builders still working , airports still open (where did the 500 people come from yesterday) any checkups on their medical condition, ferries still operating with foot passengers and cars. Just some of the reasons why we are topping the table, there is a sizable majority in this country who should hang our heads in shame for there actions.

The days of calling for ever-increasing restrictions on the public is over, with the current measures we have got control of this (with the exception of nursing homes). We don't need any more of this fake news about people not adhering to the rules, the vast majority have tried their best to be reasonably compliant. It's a great tribute to the country that we didn't need more stringent lockdowns.

The only question now is how much, if any, it is it safe to relax restrictions.

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:12PM

Upforthematch wrote: »

You've mentioned this several times.

Your language is so vague / inaccurate it is irritating.

We have 687 deaths notified as of today.

The total deaths will continue to increase.

The acceleration in the rate of the increase in deaths might be slowing - or not - it is very hard to tell with the reporting rates.

Even if the acceleration slows, the number of deaths is still increasing!!

I think 687 deaths is an awful lot to be honest for the size of our country and is a post-fact indication that something was/is still now going wrong - unfortunately it points to the nursing home sector.

Correct
it's almost too obvious that our stats are still increasing, I don't why people are even trying spin the current situation into a positive right now

moonlighting_1 · 20-04-2020 08:12PM

terenc wrote: »

There is no lock-down in this country, people are not keeping their social distance,many supermarkets are failing to comply with the regulations, shops open that should be shut, the Garda are powerless our politicians made sure that, builders still working , airports still open (where did the 500 people come from yesterday) any checkups on their medical condition, ferries still operating with foot passengers and cars. Just some of the reasons why we are topping the table, there is a sizable majority in this country who should hang our heads in shame for there actions.

Industrial estates are business as usual. A few company's closed or reduced staff but most are still open for business. Dont believe me go have a look at your nearest industrial estate.

Michael Dwyer · 20-04-2020 08:13PM

ZX7R wrote: »

Funny how all the posters that want stricter restrictions or extension of restrictions not one of them posted about the riot's in the Paris suburbs that started Saturday night and continued last night kicking of again at the moment and spreading to other regions all because of there extended restrictions and reports of police brutality

Why would they. The French love a good riot. There farmers spread slurry on government buildings as a protest form. The Irish don't do major protest. Look at how we took our treatment from the banks and ECB 10 years ago. Do you seriously think if restrictions were extended for a fortnight here our biggest problem would be riots?!

podgeandrodge · 20-04-2020 08:13PM

terenc wrote: »

There is no lock-down in this country, people are not keeping their social distance,many supermarkets are failing to comply with the regulations, shops open that should be shut, the Garda are powerless our politicians made sure that, builders still working , airports still open (where did the 500 people come from yesterday) any checkups on their medical condition, ferries still operating with foot passengers and cars. Just some of the reasons why we are topping the table, there is a sizable majority in this country who should hang our heads in shame for there actions.

Well if all the above were as bad as you say, they are doing pretty well given that they are now saying community transmission is close to zero.

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:14PM

hmmm wrote: »

The days of calling for ever-increasing restrictions on the public is over, with the current measures we have got control of this

No we haven't

patnor1011 · 20-04-2020 08:15PM

terenc wrote: »

There is no lock-down in this country, people are not keeping their social distance,many supermarkets are failing to comply with the regulations, shops open that should be shut, the Garda are powerless our politicians made sure that, builders still working , airports still open (where did the 500 people come from yesterday) any checkups on their medical condition, ferries still operating with foot passengers and cars. Just some of the reasons why we are topping the table, there is a sizable majority in this country who should hang our heads in shame for there actions.

Germany easing up lockdown and opening shops.
Are we going to run the other way?

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:15PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Well if all the above were as bad as you say, they are doing pretty well given that they are now saying community transmission is close to zero.

we are nowhere near 0 i'm afraid
400 new cases everyday in a country of 4.9 million is a lot
it's the equivalent of 6000 new cases in italy, which is what they had at the peak

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:17PM

terenc wrote: »

There is no lock-down in this country, people are not keeping their social distance,many supermarkets are failing to comply with the regulations, shops open that should be shut, the Garda are powerless our politicians made sure that, builders still working , airports still open (where did the 500 people come from yesterday) any checkups on their medical condition, ferries still operating with foot passengers and cars. Just some of the reasons why we are topping the table, there is a sizable majority in this country who should hang our heads in shame for there actions.

Correct. Our restrictions can hardly be called a lock down

Maestro85 · 20-04-2020 08:17PM

Forgive me for being annoying but can someone give me the breakdown of what happened today. I know the number of deaths (RIP) is 77 which to me seems very high but everywhere I go and meet people there is a general belief that restrictions are being eased. I guess what I am asking is; where are we at now at this stage? (I can't face the gloom of the rte news now to find this out).

ShineOn7 · 20-04-2020 08:17PM

From the Reddit user who digests all the daily Irish stats and updates into one easy read

_____________________

New Cases: 401 Germany: N/A
Total Cases: 15652
New Death: 77
Total Deaths: 687
Male: 31
Female: 42 * waiting for info on 4 of cases
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 54

Deaths: 687
Hospitalised + died in hospital: 348
Died in ICU: 45
Underlying conditions: 564
Male: 377
Female: 306
Median age: 83
Mean age: 69 Range: 23-105

Of 307 in ICU

Remain in hospital: 152 (50% - slight reduction)
Discharged: 109 (36% - slight reduction)
Died: 45
Underlying conditions: 252 (80%)
Median Age: 60

As of Saturday 18th

Cases: 15185
In Hospital: 2272 (15% - slight reduction)
In ICU: 306
Deaths: 642
Clusters: 478
Account for 3139 cases
Median age infected: 46
Healthcare workers: 26%

Clusters
Residential Homes: 1171
Nursing Homes: 1204
Death Nursing Homes: 337
Deaths Residential:406
Nursing Homes

Lab confirmed in Residential: 329
Probable or Suspect cases in Residential: 77
Lab confirmed in Nursing homes: 276
Probable or Suspect cases in Nursing homes: 61
Census commenced over the weekend - intellectual disability, mental health, disability, nursing homes
Hope to have further information back on mortality on next few days
Gives a stronger idea about the pattern of disease in these settings

Questions

No update on vaccine
All of these deaths did not occur overnight, or even in the same period - has to be notified to relative public health department, who then puts it onto a computerised infections disease database, and then a report
Largest number of deaths on a given day is 18
There is a lag time, so can't be certain those are the totals for every day, because the process of notifying is not complete
Change in percentage growth on deaths in a given day is falling.
More solid update on Thursday when Philip Nolan is present
Nursing homes Oxygen is available, you need to contact the health authority

fritzelly · 20-04-2020 08:21PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

we are nowhere near 0 i'm afraid
400 new cases everyday in a country of 4.9 million is a lot
it's the equivalent of 6000 new cases in italy, which is what they had at the peak

What utter nonsense
Most cases in Italy are from Lombardy which is only about double the size of Ireland

People picking and choosing locations and numbers to try and make it look like Ireland is doing terribly

wadacrack · 20-04-2020 08:21PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

we are nowhere near 0 i'm afraid
400 new cases everyday in a country of 4.9 million is a lot
it's the equivalent of 6000 new cases in italy, which is what they had at the peak

The RO is 0.7 according to Phillip Nolan. He has access to alot more data than you or I. The ICU and Hospital rates dropping too. High majority of deaths are in a nursing home which is not counted in many other countries. The situation is slowly improving and is not yet under control but heading in the right direction. You are wrong here again. You got it wrong about the death rate also and peddled on about that for a number of weeks. The Testing will probably never catch up with true cases which you fail to recognize. We made mistakes and could have handled it better but 400 new cases today is a drop in growth. Heading in the right direction

fritzelly · 20-04-2020 08:22PM

Maestro85 wrote: »

Forgive me for being annoying but can someone give me the breakdown of what happened today. I know the number of deaths (RIP) is 77 which to me seems very high but everywhere I go and meet people there is a general belief that restrictions are being eased. I guess what I am asking is; where are we at now at this stage? (I can't face the gloom of the rte news now to find this out).

Things are getting better - deaths are decreasing each day, new cases are decreasing each day (released numbers are historic and do not represent the past 24/48 hours)

amadangomor · 20-04-2020 08:22PM

Used to like this thread.

It really has gone to **** with the moaners who have an agenda. Who instead of discussing the facts twist them.

The level of comprehension of some people who post here is shockingingly low.

ZX7R · 20-04-2020 08:22PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Instead they posted about countries where the restrictions are being respected and the stats are looking better and people feel safer when restrictions are lifted

I've seen the stats you post,
If it lull's you into a sense that other countries are doing better so be it.
But you are not taking into account every country has different testing criteria, different definitions on recording of deaths.

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:25PM

fritzelly wrote: »

What utter nonsense
Most cases in Italy are from Lombardy which is only about double the size of Ireland

People picking and choosing locations and numbers to try and make it look like Ireland is doing terribly

Most cases in Italy are from Lombady, Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna
These regions together have a population of around 30 milion, half of Italy.

Going by your logic most cases in Ireland are from Dublin, see where this is going?

spookwoman · 20-04-2020 08:27PM

But all the deaths so far been the same, they don't always happen on the day before or even the day before that.
There is not change in the reporting of deaths so even our 39 from yesterdays report and the ones before that are made up from different days. 77 extra people have been reported dead and that is not going to change no matter what coloured glasses you want to wear.

patnor1011 · 20-04-2020 08:27PM

Upforthematch wrote: »

You've mentioned this several times.

Your language is so vague / inaccurate it is irritating.

We have 687 deaths notified as of today.

The total deaths will continue to increase.

The acceleration in the rate of the increase in deaths might be slowing - or not - it is very hard to tell with the reporting rates.

Even if the acceleration slows, the number of deaths is still increasing!!

I think 687 deaths is an awful lot to be honest for the size of our country and is a post-fact indication that something was/is still now going wrong - unfortunately it points to the nursing home sector.

687 is an awful lot? While every death is personal tragedy to someone, numbers tell a different story.
About 30,000 people die in ireland every year (last 5 years average)
That make it approximately 82 people a day or 2500 a month.
Since it is nearly end of month 4, about 10,000 people died since start of the year out of which 687 people died died from covid related complication on top of their other health problems.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-04-2020 08:27PM

Brazil deaths surge to 398 so far today, highest so far...and not exactly surprising!

In Mexico, Mexico City has said it's hospitals have been overwhelmed the last two days and they require assistance. Hospitals have started turning away patients.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/mexico-city-hospitals-at-near-full-capacity-as-virus-spreads?sref=2WWyrgO6

FLOOPER · 20-04-2020 08:28PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The r value is now starting to drop lower and faster than previous, with a rate of 1.026 for today, and a 7 day rate of 1.057. The 5 day rate of 1.045 is better again too. This shows that we are almost at the peak and have effectively avoided a large scale surge in cases.

.

I thought Minister Harris and Dr Holohan said the R0 number was 0.7 to 1.

Can you clarify if you’re saying that we’re above that.

office of information · 20-04-2020 08:29PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP4veonfnw8&
The government talks about R0 or R zero.
They know about the models used, because they know this.
But instead of adjusting to the outcome of the computer models and past experience from other countries, they make no improvements.
The best way to wreck an economy is implemented.
The way to stop the spreading is to look and listen to the experienced.
So why do we not measure temperature and test those that are suspected?
Why do we not put them in quarantine? That is the only effective way to stop it dead in its tracks.
Why are we not wearing the right gear? Gardai run around with no facial protection and talk in our faces when we want to go on our way.
Elderly and care-workers still go into stores to buy food instead of staying put with a months supply and having cleaned packs with foods delivered.
We need more small food stores not one big gathering and spreading of the disease.
Take-aways are still open.
This effectively doubles the R rate and causes a lengthy infection of our population.
Why do we still let in people from other countries? That is re infecting us with a slightly different strain causing the whole thing to start all over again. We should not let this happen.
Lucky for us this infection only cost us 0.01% of the population so far. But the government is to blame for over half of them. The death count is about the same as any influenza per year. But it took those cases in less than half the time.
Is it not time to take measures in our own hands and start acting responsible to this cold? Educate yourself.
The masks are only masking the truth.

easypazz · 20-04-2020 08:30PM

wadacrack wrote: »

The RO is 0.7 according to Phillip Nolan. He has access to alot more data than you or I. The ICU and Hospital rates dropping too. High majority of deaths are in a nursing home which is not counted in many other countries. The situation is slowly improving and is not yet under control but heading in the right direction. You are wrong here again. You got it wrong about the death rate also and peddled on about that for a number of weeks. The Testing will probably never catch up with true cases which you fail to recognize. We made mistakes and could have handled it better but 400 new cases today is a drop in growth. Heading in the right direction

There is no point in explaining to them. They will just jump to 77 deaths today is terrible we are doing really bad.

They will latch onto 401 new cases and not ask how long ago the tests were carried out.

Its all doom and gloom, I'd say most of them are secretly delighted when they heard the big 77 number of deaths today.

Plenty of ammo with which to beat the people they don't agree with.

That's the saddest bit, using 77 deaths to score cheap points on the internet.

Wombatman · 20-04-2020 08:30PM

Just Saying wrote: »

Maybe it's been highlighted already but only 1 of todays 77 deaths occured in a hospital which is remarkable.It is possible that this is an error in the briefing but it caused me to look at the recent numbers of hospital deaths

The hospital deaths for the last 5 days are

Thursday 14
Friday 18
Saturday 14
Sunday 17
Monday 1

This indicates that the spread of the virus in the community is under control but we need to redirect all our resources at the nursing home/residential care sector.

MipMap wrote: »

Trying to get to grips with this. Up to yesterday the line was that 52% of deaths occurred in residential settings. Looking at the press conference

3:41 In the woman gave the numbers:

https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/1rmxPAQMoEZKN

406 deaths In Long Term Residential Settings of which 337 occurred in nursing homes.

The numbers break down as LTRC - Lab Confirmed 327 and 77 suspected giving 406 in total.

Nursing Homes 276 Confirmed plus 61 suspected giving 337 in total.
As I understand it the Nursing Home numbers are part of the LTRC totals.

This means the percentage is 59% not 88%.

Still really shocking.

88% is correct. 605 of our 687 deaths are made up of care and nursing home residents. They may have moved from their care setting to hospital, where they could have passed away. I don't think suspected cases (not-lab confirmed) are included in our death figure yet.

Many people believe the falling ICU and hospital numbers indicate we are going in the right direction. Most nursing home patients will never see a hospital, let alone ICU.

I think the focus needs to move away from the hospital setting to care homes. Doctors and nurses should be reassigned from hospitals to care homes. Every care home resident should be tested. The number of positives will tell us where we are at.

Longing · 20-04-2020 08:30PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Used to like this thread.

It really has gone to **** with the moaners who have an agenda. Who instead of discussing the facts twist them.

The level of comprehension of some people who post here is shockingingly low.

Compassion

hmmm · 20-04-2020 08:30PM

Interesting antibody test results from Los Angeles.
http://createsend.com/t/j-296D9D8CE54262BB2540EF23F30FEDED

"Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus— which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600."

Andrew00 · 20-04-2020 08:30PM

Self isolation is a word we haven't heard used in a few weeks

Maestro85 · 20-04-2020 08:31PM

I am a fairly negative ninnie but I can't fault the healthcare professionals and I think our government handled it as best they could and have done better than a lot of others. I still fear what the "easing of restrictions" will entail because I worry it will re-surge back. Time will tell sure.

Mic 1972 · 20-04-2020 08:31PM

ZX7R wrote: »

I've seen the stats you post,
If it lull's you into a sense that other countries are doing better so be it.
But you are not taking into account every country has different testing criteria, different definitions on recording of deaths.

Unless you are comparing Ireland with China, I doubt there are huge differences in the methods. Some countries are testing more than others but numbers are public

eagle eye · 20-04-2020 08:31PM

trapp wrote:

You haven't a clue really do you.

You should look in the mirror and say that and you'd be telling the right person.

fritzelly · 20-04-2020 08:32PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Most cases in Italy are from Lombady, Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna
These regions together have a population of around 30 milion, half of Italy.

Going by your logic most cases in Ireland are from Dublin, see where this is going?

Again ignoring the obvious and just looking for numbers to justify yourself

VonLuck · 20-04-2020 08:33PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You should look in the mirror and say that and you'd be telling the right person.

Reminiscent of an insult from Brick in Anchorman.

Rob A. Bank · 20-04-2020 08:34PM

Strange times.

U.S. Oil Prices Plunge Into Negative Territory !

api.asp?sym=US@CL.1&duration=120&chartstyle=SectionFront&w=360&h=220&display=fillclose&scale=2&topLabel=%20&showChange=0&backgroundColor=FFFFFF&fillColor=eee&line1Color=333

api.asp?sym=US@CL.1&duration=120&chartstyle=SectionFront&w=360&h=220&display=fillclose&scale=2&topLabel=%20&showChange=0&backgroundColor=FFFFFF&fillColor=eee&line1Color=333

Oil prices tumbled as the economic crisis set off by the coronavirus pandemic continued to destroy demand for energy, and as concerns grew that storage tanks in the United States were near capacity and unable to hold all the unused crude...

A benchmark for oil that will be delivered next month went negative, meaning it was essentially deemed worthless, suggesting that people who had oil to sell were willing to pay for it to be taken off their hands.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/stock-market-live-trading-coronavirus.html

Upforthematch · 20-04-2020 08:34PM

GM228 wrote: »

Ireland Coronavirus Statistics - Day 52 – Monday 20/04/2020
All data is cumulative

Day
|
Date
|
Cases
|
New Cases
|
Total Cases
|
Case Increase
|
Reporting Increase
|
New Deaths
|
Total Deaths
|
Deaths daily increase
|
CFR
|
New Hosp
|
Total Hosp
|
Hosp %
|
Hosp daily increase
|
New ICU
|
Total ICU
|
ICU %
|
ICU daily increase
|
Recovered**
|
Recovery %
|
Population
| Active Cases***

52
|
20/04/2020
|
15251
|
401
|
15652
|
3%
|
-19%
|
77
|
687
|
13%
|
4.4%
|
0
|
2272
|
15%
|
0%
|
0
|
306
|
2%
|
0%
|
77
|
0%
|
0.318%
| 14888

Northern Ireland Statistics:-

Day
|
Date
|
Cases
|
New Cases
|
Total Cases
|
Case Increase
|
Reporting Increase
|
New Deaths
|
Total Deaths
|
% Increase
|
CFR
| Population %

52
|
20/04/2020
|
2645
|
83
|
2728
|
3%
|
-48%
|
0
|
194
|
0%
|
7.1%
| 0.143%

Thanks for your tables they are really informative.

I have just filtered them for today's figures for ROI and NI.

Very difficult to get a 'real' picture of what is going on.

Looking at daily changes looks pointless to me given the tardiness of reporting.

That leaves the cumulative of 3 main stats

Cumul. Number of COVID Cases (lagging indicator)
Problem: Depends on the number of tests - totally skewed and useless figure in my view.

Cumul. Number of COVID ICU (leading indicator)
Problem: Doesn't include Nursing Home Residents not being transferred to ICU.
However, Good stat for community transmission.

Cumul. Number of Deaths (lagging indicator)
Problem: Different countries are not counting all their deaths or counting them differently.
However, assuming the country is consistent in how it records a death - good stat for post-analysis against a fixed benchmark.

One thing we are missing is a good leading indicator for nursing homes - I assume that's why they have decided they must now test all nursing home staff and residents. More's the pity more nursing home staff can't 'live in' and cocoon with the residents.

Gynoid · 20-04-2020 08:36PM

easypazz wrote: »

I'd say most of them are secretly delighted when they heard the big 77 number of deaths today.
..............................

That's the saddest bit, using 77 deaths to score cheap points on the internet.

Self awareness. It's a thing.

hmmm · 20-04-2020 08:39PM

Upforthematch wrote: »

However, assuming the country is consistent in how it records a death - good stat for post-analysis against a fixed benchmark.

It'd be interesting to see (for every country), number of recorded overall deaths in the first 3 months of 2020 versus the previous average.

bettyoleary · 20-04-2020 08:40PM

Wombatman wrote: »

88% is correct. 605 of our 687 deaths are made up of care and nursing home residents. They may have moved from their care setting to hospital, where they could have passed away. I don't think suspected cases (not-lab confirmed) are included in our death figure yet.

Many people believe the falling ICU and hospital numbers indicate we are going in the right direction. Most nursing home patients will never see a hospital, let alone ICU.

I think the focus needs to move away from the hospital setting to care homes. Doctors and nurses should be reassigned from hospitals to care homes. Every care home resident should be tested. The number of positives will tell us where we are at.

There has to be a way to isolate those that test positive and the facilities to provide these people with the appropriate care if not requiring hospital. Of those that become more seriously ill , if they are strong enough and have a chance of making it through they should be taken to hospital. They say this is happening but I don't know.

patnor1011 · 20-04-2020 08:41PM

hmmm wrote: »

It'd be interesting to see (for every country), number of recorded overall deaths in the first 3 months of 2020 versus the previous average.

Easy to google up every country do have some statistics office and informations are out there. It just take up some time.
Irelan numbers can be found here:
https://statbank.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=vsa02_vsa09_vsa18

If you dig deeper you will even find numbers of deaths by cases like flu, pneumonia....

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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