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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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    #5492
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Looks like the house price falls have started in London. According to Bloomberg today:

    "House Prices Are Plummeting in London’s Financial Districts.

    House prices in the City of London slumped 10.8% in the year through January, while Tower Hamlets, where rival financial district Canary Wharf is based, saw values drop 9.5%, according to a report by chartered surveyors e.surv.

    The best bargains are to be found in City of Westminster, the heart of the nation’s government. Prices there tumbled 37% compared with a year earlier - the sharpest drop seen in the capital."

    Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/house-prices-are-plummeting-in-london-s-financial-districts

    To be fair, not exactly a surprise. My own expectation is that properties in "City of London" would be primarily one bed and 2 bed apartments on not desirable family suburban homes in a time of lockdowns. With the exodus of people from London (why would you WFH for 12 hours a day in your shoebox 1 bed in the city which you used to use for just crashing in Monday to Friday as you were in the office 8 till 8?). Didn't stamp duty change in England also and werent changes made to BTL tax reliefs over the past while? Investors probably sitting on hefty gains and were happy to cash in somewhat.

    Whether such a step change occured in the IFSC and GCD remains to be seen but Owen Reilly the estate agent seemed to think it happened to some extent although different market dynamics here with government interference on RPZs HAP etc.


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    #5493
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Sorry, I don’t follow.

    Perhaps you missed the relevant post if you have Props on ignore?


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    #5494
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    Perhaps you missed the relevant post if you have Props on ignore?

    Ah thank you for clarifying. Makes sense now.


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    #5495
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Subutai wrote: »
    Talk to someone who's lived in apartments in somewhere like Germany and here. My European colleagues have frequently been shocked at what we call apartments.

    I've no doubt there are lots of people living in apartments - Dublin is full of old buildings sub divided into apartments and packed as high as possible. That's not a sustainable way to live for small households, which is what the drive for more apartments is meant to accommodate.


    Completely agree with this. Apartments in France, Spain, Italy are a completely different type of concept. They are bigger, better layout, sound proof and insulated.

    Apartments in Dublin are a short term arrangement for most because they badly made


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    #5496
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,206 ✭✭✭combat14


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Looks like the house price falls have started in London. According to Bloomberg today:

    "House Prices Are Plummeting in London’s Financial Districts.

    House prices in the City of London slumped 10.8% in the year through January, while Tower Hamlets, where rival financial district Canary Wharf is based, saw values drop 9.5%, according to a report by chartered surveyors e.surv.

    The best bargains are to be found in City of Westminster, the heart of the nation’s government. Prices there tumbled 37% compared with a year earlier - the sharpest drop seen in the capital."

    Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/house-prices-are-plummeting-in-london-s-financial-districts

    by all accounts london has seen a drop in its population ot 700,000 in the last year - the uk an overall drop in 1m - that tends to have some effect eventually


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    #5497
    yagan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭yagan


    combat14 wrote: »
    by all accounts london has seen a drop in its population ot 700,000 in the last year - the uk an overall drop in 1m - that tends to have some effect eventually
    I have been wondering if the whole HK visa offer was partly driven by business looking for a replacement for EU workers. The Tories sell it as wealthy HKers adding to the national wealth etc.. but wealthy HKers never needed help siphoning their money out of China with many countries around the world competing with Golden Visas.

    The Hong Konger most likely to move is an average worker looking for a change.


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    #5498
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    ReturnOfThe wrote: »
    So if someone is looking for house prices to fall, they would have to be looking out for at least one of the below headlines in the papers..

    Economic outlook deteriorating
    Population growth being reversed
    Demand falling
    Mortgage approvals falling
    Supply increasing and outpacing demand
    Interest rates rising
    PropQueries wrote: »
    I'm calling it :)

    Every single one of those boxes will be ticked by August 2021.

    I'm giving a chance to change your opinion, otherwise I'll remind you in 5 months :)


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    #5499
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Marius34 wrote: »
    I'm giving a chance to change your opinion, otherwise I'll remind you in 5 months :)


    Just give me until the 31st of the month :) Even though I understand there's normally not much movement in any markets during August, It's my call... :)

    Thinking about it now, I should have said end of October, but I'll stick with it and see where it goes.


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    #5500
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Reading today news as

    Irish Life seeks buyer for Cork city centre retail investments
    European investor to seek €1bn from sale of Irish residential rental portfolio
    Sharp decline in investors using buy-to-let mortgages to fund investments
    Irish mortgage interest rates highest in euro zone again

    Keep me working hard creating bag of cash and any PA will not prove me that property prices will up


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    #5501
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    How long before AIB and BOI have a defacto duopoly

    'State's two main banks ‘cannot be trusted’, Fine Gael parliamentary party is told'
    THE State’s two pillar banks “cannot be trusted” and the banking and investment system has “utter contempt” for the Government, the Fine Gael parliamentary party has been told.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/states-two-main-banks-cannot-be-trusted-fine-gael-parliamentary-party-is-told-40182761.html


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    #5502
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »
    Odd how prices rising in London is held up as an example why prices rising in Dublin is perfectly normal, but if somebody points out prices are falling in London you come out with a comment like that.

    When have I ever compared London prices to Dublin prices? Why not Sydney prices, or New York prices, or Paris prices or Manchester prices..What correlation has London got to Dublin or Irish property prices? If you are to compare to Dublin to London how many people left London recently


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    #5503
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »

    THE State’s two pillar banks “cannot be trusted” and the banking and investment system has “utter contempt” for the Government, the Fine Gael parliamentary party has been told.

    Lol :)


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    #5504
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    When have I ever compared London prices to Dublin prices? Why not Sydney prices, or New York prices, or Paris prices or Manchester prices..What correlation has London got to Dublin or Irish property prices? If you are to compare to Dublin to London how many people left London recently

    I think the main problem these days is that the property markets in many of the worlds cities is heavily invested in by the same relatively few global funds.

    Once they start panicking and pulling out of one market they may pull out of many other similar markets at the same time leading to a flood of property entering the market at the same time.

    Property prices have being rising in relative tandem among the main cities for the past few years. They may now fall in tandem.


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    #5505
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I think the main problem these days is that the property markets in many of the worlds cities is heavily invested in by the same relatively few global funds.

    Once they start panicking and pulling out of one market they may pull out of many other similar markets at the same time leading to a flood of property entering the market at the same time.

    Property prices have being rising in relative tandem among the main cities for the past few years. They may now fall in tandem.

    Why would they start panicking and pulling out of all markets at the same time and start a fire sale? What would be the driver that would make this happen?


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    #5506
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Why would they start panicking and pulling out of all markets at the same time and start a fire sale? What would be the driver that would make this happen?

    Many of the decision makers at many of these funds generally think the same way eventually.

    Whether it’s a belief that interest rates will rise faster than many think to increasing government intervention in the property markets.

    Doesn’t take much to scare them.

    Back in 2014, David McWilliams said:

    “Most vulture funds have a rule called the three-thirty rule. This means they buy and hold for a maximum of three years and once they make 30 per cent they are out.”

    I think what he may have got wrong back them was that the vulture funds bought so much property that it’s taken them a bit longer to get through what they actually bought.

    They should be through the paperwork by this stage in many cases IMO


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    #5507
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I think the main problem these days is that the property markets in many of the worlds cities is heavily invested in by the same relatively few global funds.

    Once they start panicking and pulling out of one market they may pull out of many other similar markets at the same time leading to a flood of property entering the market at the same time.

    Property prices have being rising in relative tandem among the main cities for the past few years. They may now fall in tandem.

    It's funny how sometimes we are exactly aligned with what is happening in London, and other times we are not....
    PropQueries wrote: »
    But, then we’re back to the nonsense that land is expensive in Dublin because it’s a “city” and there’s not much of it. We’re not London or Tokyo. There’s nothing but land in and around the city. Actually, there’s plenty of land around london. Not sure about Tokyo, but probably plenty of land there as well though.

    PropQueries wrote: »
    I would actually compare Waterford to Dublin more than I would compare Dublin to London :)
    PropQueries wrote: »
    I’m not sure that argument stands. London is a real city and Greater London has a population about twice the size of Ireland in an area about one and a half times the size of Co. Dublin.

    Outside a few areas, it’s also not that high rise and they still appear to have more and better parks than Dublin has (the park thing is a guess from the times I’ve been there).
    PropQueries wrote:
    In my opinion we're not London or New York. Is there really much demand for such units. Our "IT" jobs are mostly in sales etc. The real work in done in the United States, London or some other EU country. I think everyone believes we're the silicon valley of Europe but the truth and the wages are much different from the reality.
    PropQueries wrote:
    Some day. But from just looking at the number of a-rated turn-key apartments and houses for sale and rent in Dublin on MyHome.ie, the figure must be at least in the 5,000-6,000 range. That’s a fairly significant number of new build homes looking for occupiers and is significant for such a small city, We’re not London. And we’re still expected to build c.16,000-18,000 this year with most to be built in the greater Dublin region...


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    #5508
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    When have I ever compared London prices to Dublin prices? Why not Sydney prices, or New York prices, or Paris prices or Manchester prices..What correlation has London got to Dublin or Irish property prices? If you are to compare to Dublin to London how many people left London recently

    It's a bit of a recurring theme...
    fliball123 wrote: »
    its a place the majority would like to live in and as such there is a premium to be paid. Just like London, Paris, New York, Sydney, Rome, Brussels, Copenhagen, Madrid, Berlin the list goes on and on. Why should Dublin be any different
    fliball123 wrote: »
    How does your population vs accommodation compare to within other major cities in the world I believe the problem is not just isolated to Dublin/Ireland you only have to look at London/England or Paris/France to see the same issues..
    fliball123 wrote: »
    Unfortunately the idea that if you want to live in an area that a lot of other people want to live in as in Dublin along the coast or leafy Foxrock. You have to pay a premium to do so. I also told you this is not unique to Ireland Look at America, Australia, England, France and look at places in here like Sydney, Manhattan, London and Paris..There is a premium needed to be paid to live in a desirable area.
    fliball123 wrote: »
    As for paying a price over the average or median. Look at the likes of New York, London, Paris and other major/captial cities throughout the world they have historically come with a premium so Dublin is not alone in this regard.
    fliball123 wrote: »
    How does the likes of New York and London and Paris and Sydney function with the same dynamics
    fliball123 wrote: »
    Lots of other houses bigger and for less in other areas if people want to live somewhere and if there is competition for the house price goes up. We are not unique in this look at New York, London, Sydney, Paris, Berlin and other Captial cities around the globe

    l
    fliball123 wrote: »
    look at London, New York, Paris and other major hubs and before the sh1t of Dublin should not be compared to these, the simple fact is Dublin is now a major attraction for MNCs, foreign investment aswell as Software and Pharma and will be the the only English speaking Capital in the EU once England go so it is now up there or very close.

    Hence why I thought it was odd after posting all of the above to reply to a post about London prices saying:
    fliball123 wrote: »
    AND what connection has your brain made to the Irish property market?


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    #5509
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭hometruths


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    It's funny how sometimes we are exactly aligned with what is happening in London, and other times we are not....

    Nail on head!!


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    #5510
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Many of the decision makers at many of these funds generally think the same way eventually.

    Whether it’s a belief that interest rates will rise faster than many think to increasing government intervention in the property markets.

    Doesn’t take much to scare them.

    Back in 2014, David McWilliams said:

    “Most vulture funds have a rule called the three-thirty rule. This means they buy and hold for a maximum of three years and once they make 30 per cent they are out.”

    I think what he may have got wrong back them was that the vulture funds bought so much property that it’s taken them a bit longer to get through what they actually bought.

    They should be through the paperwork by this stage in many cases IMO

    So now your opinions extend to the inner workings of Vulture funds and specifically how their internal administrative processes work?

    And of course more importantly, the vulture funds are now ready to instigate their own fire sale. Right now of course, any day now....


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    #5511
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    It's funny how sometimes we are exactly aligned with what is happening in London, and other times we are not....

    Nice to see you’ve a keen interest in all my posts :)

    However, the common theme in the posts you reposted was they were in relation to local demand.

    My current argument is in relation to how many of the funds may exit many of the different markets they’ve invested in at the same time leading to property falls in many major cities at the same time. Just like when many world cities increased in tandem over the past few years, they may fall in tandem as the funds exit in mass.

    But interesting how people can drag up so many posts :)


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    #5512
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    So now your opinions extend to the inner workings of Vulture funds and specifically how their internal administrative processes work?

    And of course more importantly, the vulture funds are now ready to instigate their own fire sale. Right now of course, any day now....

    It just takes one fund to start it. Just like a real fire, they may all rush for the exit. One wouldn’t want to risk being the last to leave the building in such a scenario.


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    #5513
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    It just takes one fund to start it. Just like a real fire, they may all rush for the exit. One wouldn’t want to risk being the last to leave the building in such a scenario.

    Which Funds are you including in your latest prediction?

    Pension Funds
    Reits
    Investment Funds
    Fixed income funds (you keep talking about the Nama Debt that was bought)
    Hedge Funds

    And in the current market what asset class would the funds flow into following your fire sale or are you predicting a run on the funds by investors.


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    #5514
    thefridge2006
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    European investor to seek €1bn from sale of Irish residential rental portfolio

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/european-investor-to-seek-1bn-from-sale-of-irish-residential-rental-portfolio-1.4506736

    I'm pretty sure Props called this situation previously......this thread is turning into Props prophecies that are coming true. fair play


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    #5515
    ebayissues
    Registered Users Posts: 448 ✭✭ebayissues


    I dont see fund(s) leaving Ireland. If you work in the funds industry you would know that recently a new corporate vehicle structure was drafted. It's forecasted that this should increase funds domiciled in Ireland from 3 trillion to 5 trillion in 5 years.

    Funds are not specific to QIAIF, UCITS, hedge funds, property funds etc.

    Also given that most funds in UK that want to passport their product in Europe, Ireland is one of the top choices.

    I don't see funds leaving Ireland anytime soon.


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    #5516
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭hometruths


    ebayissues wrote: »
    I dont see fund(s) leaving Ireland. If you work in the funds industry you would know that recently a new corporate vehicle structure was drafted. It's forecasted that this should increase funds domiciled in Ireland from 3 trillion to 5 trillion in 5 years.

    Funds are not specific to QIAIF, UCITS, hedge funds, property funds etc.

    Also given that most funds in UK that want to passport their product in Europe, Ireland is one of the top choices.

    I don't see funds leaving Ireland anytime soon.

    When Props is talking about funds leaving Ireland I am pretty sure he is not worried about them changing their domicile.


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    #5517
    Joeyjoejoe43
    Registered Users Posts: 1,094 ✭✭✭Joeyjoejoe43


    What is the general consensus on where the Irish property market goes in the next 1/3/5 years?


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    #5518
    yagan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭yagan


    Joeyjoejoe43 wrote: »
    What is the general consensus on where the Irish property market goes in the next 1/3/5 years?
    I think it's way too early to say.

    Covid has made WFH a cost saving option for businesses so no one except commercial landlords are going to argue against it.

    I don't see why uni courses that don't require presenteeism won't be an accessible online option too.

    Both are negative headwinds for Dublin rents but a boon for regional areas. Before Covid arrived the Dublin building boom was probably near peak anyway, and with major developers like Marlet now hawking for buyers where before they were selling off plan I reckon the dynamic is downhill.

    Once covid restrictions end it will be interesting to see if there'll be more pent up sellers than buyers. As there's better value outside Dublin I reckon anyone with cash and able to avail of WFH will relocate.


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    #5519
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Joeyjoejoe43 wrote:
    What is the general consensus on where the Irish property market goes in the next 1/3/5 years?


    1 up
    3 to 5 crash

    Loose prediction, but based on current policy not only is a crash inevitable but continuation of those policies will make the crash much harder when it happens

    So basically the higher the rise, the greater the crash

    World events may speed up the timing of the crash


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    #5520
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    European investor to seek €1bn from sale of Irish residential rental portfolio

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/european-investor-to-seek-1bn-from-sale-of-irish-residential-rental-portfolio-1.4506736

    I'm pretty sure Props called this situation previously......this thread is turning into Props prophecies that are coming true. fair play

    Strange they are looking to exit all of a sudden considering they were buying and expanding in 2019. That operation look to have a substantial commercial property line which may not be as lucrative/attractive to sell. Or else they see the Irish market as topping out and looking to cash in.

    Still, €1 billion would give them a chunky profit looking at what they paid for some of the acquisitions and the average sale price being near 600k (unless they have a landbank included in there also).


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    #5521
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »
    It's a bit of a recurring theme...













    l

    Hence why I thought it was odd after posting all of the above to reply to a post about London prices saying:



    If you look at all of those references I am trying to get a point across that capital cities and highly desirable places across the globe will require a premium to be paid if you want to live there. There is no comparison of Dublin and London property prices in that list you put up. I have never actually gone and stated London property prices are x and Dublin property prices are y therefore we can assume z. If I have show me?


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