Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

1…138139141143144…298

Comments

  • #4202
    theintern
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 617 ✭✭✭theintern


    zebastein wrote: »
    I forgot I was on boards.ie and people jump on the occasion to pretend they don't understand the message. I was obviously talking about the "expected ramp up".
    The plan was to double the roll out and reach 450k doses per week by the end of June (so +100% increase in 2months). Your message is that you are satisfied with a ramp up which is a 43% increase, so half of the plan. Good for you.

    I appreciate that we did not get all the J&J that we were promised, but anyway we are not even using what we have. Hence my question: why are other countries managing to ramp up as expected (numbers above) ?

    Ok then, your issue is with the rate at which we're administering vaccines compared with the rest of Europe? Let's look at those figures. Most of our EU counterparts are administering vaccines at between 0.8 and 1.1 doses per 100 people per day (7 day rolling average, source ourworldindata.org). I looked at Austria, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, France, Denmark, Belgium, Portugal.

    There are a few bumps and jumps in the data for Belgium and Portugal but generally the trend through the last month has been between 0.8 and 1.1. Currently Belgium is at 1.06 and Spain has ticked up to 1.14. Portugal are having a great 2 days, they're above 1.2 having been below 1.0 for the last month. Germany, Netherlands, Austria, France are all below 1.0.

    Take our 7 day rolling average based on the last full week to Sunday, which is 50,179 doses per day. Ourworldindata uses 4.93m as Irelands population, which you also quoted.

    Surprise surprise, that makes our 7 day average adjusted for population 1.01%. Exactly in line with the rest of Europe, and to be honest, on the upper end of the average.

    So what exactly are we doing wrong here?


  • #4203
    lucernarian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    xboxdad wrote: »
    43% immune leaves 57% unprotected, that's a lot of ppl to infect.

    40-60% more transmissible virus doesn't mean 40-60% more infected ppl. That means 40-60% more infected ppl at each "step", e.g. the increase is exponential which will skyrocket in just a few steps.
    This is an oversimplification. What the vaccine program is trying to achieve is primarily the reduction/avoidance of hospitalisation and death. The "43%" cohort consists of much/most of the people identified as being at higher risk of those outcomes.

    In any case, that doesn't translate well as an explanation because the numbers of vaccinated people will increase in tandem with the hypothetical spread of the delta variant, and we do know that the available vaccines are effective at dealing with case numbers and likely also transmission of the virus. The "steps" that you mention rely on a rapidly-dwindling population of unvaccinated people, eventually most of whom will be children.


  • #4204
    snotboogie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    seamus wrote: »
    I'd go straight to the source:
    https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html

    Either way, like I say there are regional differences. 20.5% of our population is under 18.

    In Italy, 15% of the population is under 18. In Germany, 15.5%.

    This is why comparisons between countries on whole-population figures are misleading. The correct comparison is between the eligible populations.

    The issue with that tracker is that its for 18+, however vaccines are distributed per capita, not per adult population per capita. Ireland has by far the youngest population in the EU so our place on that list is significantly skewed. The ourworld in data tracker is more accurate.


  • #4205
    lucernarian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    seamus wrote: »
    Despite the wailing and the delays in some areas, it is not hard to get a vaccine in Ireland. Or at least not any harder than anywhere else.

    That is objectively not true. How might a 26 year old be vaccinated in the last couple of weeks, short of nepotism or lucking out with the right GP? The answer in Ireland's case, and in the case of all other European countries, is quite different. A pathway for any adult to register and get a vaccine has not been established yet.


  • #4206
    Lumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,297 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    snotboogie wrote: »
    The issue with that tracker is that its for 18+, however vaccines are distributed per capita, not per adult population per capita. Ireland has by far the youngest population in the EU so our place on that list is significantly skewed. The ourworld in data tracker is more accurate.

    They are both accurate but are measuring different things.

    The EU site is measuring how well Ireland is managing its relatively easier task compared to other countries with their harder task.

    OWID is measuring how far we are towards herd immunity.

    The herd immunity issue is complicated by the hypothesis that younger people don't spread covid as easily because they have a lower viral load and therefore shed less, which would mean that we could achieve herd immunity with a lower % total population vaccinated, but that hypothesis was formulated pre-delta and I don't know whether it stands up to scrutiny.


  • Advertisement
  • #4207
    snotboogie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Lumen wrote: »
    They are both accurate but are measuring different things.

    The EU site is measuring how well Ireland is managing its relatively easier task compared to other countries with their harder task.

    OWID is measuring how far we are towards herd immunity.

    The herd immunity issue is complicated by the hypothesis that younger people don't spread covid as easily because they have a lower viral load and therefore shed less, which would mean that we could achieve herd immunity with a lower % total population vaccinated, but that hypothesis was formulated pre-delta and I don't know whether it stands up to scrutiny.

    I know, I am saying we get distributed vaccines per capita, not per adult population. We should look at per capita vaccine distribution when comparing our rollout to the rest of the EU as this is how vaccines are allocated


  • #4208
    zebastein
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    theintern wrote: »
    Take our 7 day rolling average based on the last full week to Sunday, which is 50,179 doses per day. Ourworldindata uses 4.93m as Irelands population, which you also quoted.

    [...]

    So what exactly are we doing wrong here?

    I am genuinely asking the question, I have not the answer.
    We were on track, at the same pace as other countries, we lose data for a month because of the hacking of the HSE, and when data come back we are 5 to 10% of population behind some other European countries.

    The last 7 days are not too bad, alright, but we probably had worse weeks beginning of June. We heard Paul Reid talking about record week last week, but nothing for what happened in June before.

    Are we going to catch up by opening J&J and AZ to younger cohorts ? It does not seem we have much in stock at this point. 60k J&J in pharmacies, that gives us the ability to catch up 1day / 1.5 days.


  • #4209
    Apogee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,899 ✭✭✭Apogee


    ceegee wrote: »
    Had it been announced that we'd breached the 60k mark on Friday? I can only remember mention of days being over 50k

    Reid mentioned reaching "over 54,000" on previous 4 of 7 days on the 28th. My guess is that when Friday's numbers were initially uploaded, the total for Friday was under 60K, but would have been revised upwards in the meantime taking it above the 60K mark.


  • #4210
    lucernarian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Lumen wrote: »
    They are both accurate but are measuring different things.

    The EU site is measuring how well Ireland is managing its relatively easier task compared to other countries with their harder task.

    OWID is measuring how far we are towards herd immunity.

    The herd immunity issue is complicated by the hypothesis that younger people don't spread covid as easily because they have a lower viral load and therefore shed less, which would mean that we could achieve herd immunity with a lower % total population vaccinated, but that hypothesis was formulated pre-delta and I don't know whether it stands up to scrutiny.
    I think accuracy is the wrong word in this situation, "relevance" might be more useful. The conclusion I'd make is that we are somewhat struggling compared to our European peers in vaccinating the eligible population.


  • #4211
    Reati
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,926 ✭✭✭Reati


    eoinbn wrote: »
    My point is that is it wrongly classified and that a person with just asthma no more reason to worry about covid than anyone else. The stress of thinking that you are at very high risk, when you aren't, is only going to do harm.

    But Asthma isn't listed. Severe asthma is. Very different.


  • Advertisement
  • #4212
    zebastein
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    lucernarian wrote: »
    I think accuracy is the wrong word in this situation, "relevance" might be more useful. The conclusion I'd make is that we are somewhat struggling compared to our European peers in vaccinating the eligible population.

    Can a reason be that Ireland has decided to allocate random appointments while other countries open slot and people register themselves at a slot they chose ?

    Fictional example:
    If you tell 10 people to come this day at this time, maybe 4 or 5 will ask for a reschedule at the last minute, then you need to ask other people to come, who can also decline or miss their appointment in the portal and at the end you have 2 people missing.

    If you open 10 slots, and ask people to register themselves, they pick the slot they want, so there is no forth and back and you are sure they know they have an appointment. At the end of the day only 1 person does not show up.

    It may be more difficult now on an active population with children and commitments. That is how I read the fact that the HSE decided to stop rescheduling after 3 declines. They have enough cases happening so that they decide to take an action and set a rule.


  • #4213
    xboxdad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,061 ✭✭✭xboxdad


    lucernarian wrote: »
    This is an oversimplification. What the vaccine program is trying to achieve is primarily the reduction/avoidance of hospitalisation and death. The "43%" cohort consists of much/most of the people identified as being at higher risk of those outcomes.

    In any case, that doesn't translate well as an explanation because the numbers of vaccinated people will increase in tandem with the hypothetical spread of the delta variant, and we do know that the available vaccines are effective at dealing with case numbers and likely also transmission of the virus. The "steps" that you mention rely on a rapidly-dwindling population of unvaccinated people, eventually most of whom will be children.

    You can't just look at an individual country.

    Approx 18 months into the pandemic, humanity still didn't manage to vaccinate all adults on the planet, not even close.
    This leaves the virus an ideal field to experiment/mutate/evolve.
    When we all consider it done here, one day a guy from some poor country where vaccination uptake is still 10% will travel here some undocumented/indirect way and bring in a new strain that'll laugh at our vaccines - if we keep pretending it's enough to vaccinate our own ppl here.
    We can't leave this much space for the virus to experiment and evolve, anywhere on the planet - for this to be over.

    Also, I'm a parent and my #1 concern is children. Let's not pretend we know what covid will cause in asymptomatic ppl/children in the coming decades.
    Tons of ppl say they're afraid of unproven vaccines yet they're very happy to let an "unproven" virus infect entire generations of children and "see what happens" in the long term.
    I can't agree with that and I'm hoping this is becoming an increasingly outdated view originating from the times when we were still unsure if we could put out the very visible flames (immediate hospitalizations/deaths) and could focus on nothing else.


  • #4214
    josip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,865 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Skygord wrote: »
    Policy has been clear for a long time - no non-essential foreign travel till 19 July at the earliest.

    The reason they gave (to the EU) for the delay was the ransomware attack, not the anti-travel policy.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0630/1232241-covid-ireland-figures/
    The European Commissioner for Justice has said that Ireland is the only European Union member state that will not be ready to comply with the EU Digital Covid Certificate for travel when it comes into effect on 1 July.

    This is due to the recent cyber attack on the Health Service Executive.


  • #4215
    Skygord
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 205 ✭✭Skygord


    How far are we from being able to say "our vulnerable are fully vaccinated"?

    For this analysis, I've defined "our vulnerable" as:
    • Cohort 1 (Long Term Residential Care)
    • Cohort 3 (Over 70's)
    • Cohort 4 (Medically Very High Risk)
    • Cohort 5 (60's)
    • Cohort 7 (Medically High Risk)

    According to
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-29-june-2021.pdf

    the total of these cohorts awaiting their 2nd dose is 385,394, which breaks down to:
    • Cohort 1: 5114
    • Cohort 3: 32,223
    • Cohort 4: 43,438
    • Cohort 5: 221,061
    • Cohort 7: 83,558


  • #4216
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Thank you. That's a very interesting way to view it with figures I was unaware of.


  • #4217
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    Skygord wrote: »
    How far are we from being able to say "our vulnerable are fully vaccinated"?

    For this analysis, I've defined "our vulnerable" as:
    • Cohort 1 (Long Term Residential Care)
    • Cohort 3 (Over 70's)
    • Cohort 4 (Medically Very High Risk)
    • Cohort 5 (60's)
    • Cohort 7 (Medically High Risk)

    According to
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-29-june-2021.pdf

    the total of these cohorts awaiting their 2nd dose is 385,394, which breaks down to:
    • Cohort 1: 5114
    • Cohort 3: 32,223
    • Cohort 4: 43,438
    • Cohort 5: 221,061
    • Cohort 7: 83,558

    I'd say around two weeks to clear the vast majority of that, with AZ second doses being brought forward currently.


  • #4218
    lucernarian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    xboxdad wrote: »
    You can't just look at an individual country.

    Approx 18 months into the pandemic, humanity still didn't manage to vaccinate all adults on the planet, not even close.
    This leaves the virus an ideal field to experiment/mutate/evolve.
    When we all consider it done here, one day a guy from some poor country where vaccination uptake is still 10% will travel here some undocumented/indirect way and bring in a new strain that'll laugh at our vaccines - if we keep pretending it's enough to vaccinate our own ppl here.
    We can't leave this much space for the virus to experiment and evolve, anywhere on the planet - for this to be over.

    Also, I'm a parent and my #1 concern is children. Let's not pretend we know what covid will cause in asymptomatic ppl/children in the coming decades.
    Tons of ppl say they're afraid of unproven vaccines yet they're very happy to let an "unproven" virus infect entire generations of children and "see what happens" in the long term.
    I can't agree with that and I'm hoping this is becoming an increasingly outdated view originating from the times when we were still unsure if we could put out the very visible flames (immediate hospitalizations/deaths) and could focus on nothing else.
    Replying to that adequately would involve some pretty long conversations and honestly it's difficult to convey an accurate message on boards.ie. I would say though that your response doesn't really address what I'm talking about - which is NPHET's modelling in the context of the vaccine rollout. And viruses don't "experiment".


  • #4219
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Skygord wrote: »
    How far are we from being able to say "our vulnerable are fully vaccinated"?

    For this analysis, I've defined "our vulnerable" as:
    • Cohort 1 (Long Term Residential Care)
    • Cohort 3 (Over 70's)
    • Cohort 4 (Medically Very High Risk)
    • Cohort 5 (60's)
    • Cohort 7 (Medically High Risk)

    According to
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-29-june-2021.pdf

    the total of these cohorts awaiting their 2nd dose is 385,394, which breaks down to:
    • Cohort 1: 5114
    • Cohort 3: 32,223
    • Cohort 4: 43,438
    • Cohort 5: 221,061
    • Cohort 7: 83,558

    Good list.

    I wonder how accurate that is.
    Why 5,000 people in care homes not had a second vaccine?
    The over 60's are getting their second AZ dose now, why so many over 70's on Pfizer haven't?

    I'd imagine these numbers are much lower when they add in GP vaccinations.


  • #4220
    penguinbaby
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22 ✭penguinbaby


    Tenger wrote: »
    You will. I replied thus to my first appointment.
    Got a reply with a new appointment the next day.

    I replied new last thurs and im still waiting for a new appointment. I rang and they told me it could take up to 3 weeks to get a new app. :-(


  • #4221
    josip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,865 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    Good list.

    I wonder how accurate that is.
    Why 5,000 people in care homes not had a second vaccine?
    ...


    I'd assume some of them either died or weakened to a point where it was medically inadvisable to give them a 2nd vaccine dose.
    Probably wouldn't account for all 5000 though.


  • Advertisement
  • #4222
    xboxdad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,061 ✭✭✭xboxdad


    lucernarian wrote: »
    Replying to that adequately would involve some pretty long conversations and honestly it's difficult to convey an accurate message on boards.ie. I would say though that your response doesn't really address what I'm talking about - which is NPHET's modelling in the context of the vaccine rollout. And viruses don't "experiment".


    OK, I agree this is too complex of a topic to try and discuss in detail.
    What I mean when I say they "experiment" is evolution. E.g. trial and error. Mutations happen on a regular basis, but most of them are less successful than the existing strain(s), e.g. you only ever hear about the mutations that were more/similarly successful as the existing strain(s). The larger the "sandbox" (=unvaccinated population) the virus has to do this trial&error the faster we'll see successful mutations/strains appear in our stats.
    This is what I attempted to avoid typing in by just saying "experimenting" :)


  • #4223
    sashafierce
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,599 ✭✭✭sashafierce


    Can I ask and apologies if this has been answered but i just read that J&J will now be given to 18-29 age group and not a mention of the 30-34 group. Is there any update on this?


  • #4224
    corkie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,403 ✭✭✭corkie


    https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1410567204576317447

    Daily reporting of our COVID-19 vaccination figures has been restored following the cyber attack.

    Good to see that as of Tuesday almost 2/3 of adults have had at least one dose, more than 2/5 fully vaccinated.

    The HUB has yet to be updated.

    Bluesky: ATProtoViewer ~ PWA + #Bookmarks + bsky share feature.
    ^^ My latest github pages experimental code.
    Sorry for neglecting boards, but got absorbed into creating this the last two weeks. (Source code available).



  • #4225
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    corkie wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1410567204576317447

    Daily reporting of our COVID-19 vaccination figures has been restored following the cyber attack.

    Good to see that as of Tuesday almost 2/3 of adults have had at least one dose, more than 2/5 fully vaccinated.

    The HUB has yet to be updated.

    15% below the 80% target they set themselves by the end of June


  • #4226
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    sashafierce wrote: »
    Can I ask and apologies if this has been answered but i just read that J&J will now be given to 18-29 age group and not a mention of the 30-24 group. Is there any update on this?

    It was a proposal by Alan Kelly to do that. I'd imagine the reasoning behind suggesting 18-29 specifically is that 30-34 is imminent via the vaccine portal, due to large incoming deliveries from Pfizer.


  • #4227
    Stark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,202 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    15% below the 80% target they set themselves by the end of June

    That target was based on the assumption that AstraZeneca and J&J would deliver what they promised, which they didn't.


  • #4228
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1410561200551833602?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1410561200551833602%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rte.ie%2Fnews%2F2021%2F0701%2F1232408-covid-blog%2F

    It is ridiculous how long we take to do things in this country. Leo there saying the HSE has to consider if we have enough stock etc to open the Janssen vaccine for all ages in pharmacies and that they need a few days. Why?

    Give them all of the outstanding stock, let pharmacies make up waiting lists on a first come first served basis and get those doses which are currently sitting on pharmacy shelves into arms. If a pharmacy runs out of stock, that's great news, it means they used up a lot of doses which are currently going unused. The people who miss out on one from that pharmacy would be in no different of a scenario than they are right now ie. waiting on the portal to open for their age group.

    As soon as NIAC gave the advice, pharmacies should have been instructed to start administering the following morning, as they see fit and appropriate. If the situation is as grim and stark as NPHET are emphasising, then gov should be doing everything in their power to get every single dose we have into arms as quickly as possible, as every extra vaccinated person hinders the ability for delta to spread.


  • #4229
    JPup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,011 ✭✭✭JPup


    Stark wrote: »
    That target was based on the assumption that AstraZeneca and J&J would deliver what they promised, which they didn't.

    Correct. No failure on the part of the Irish health service. Just unfortunate that the blood clotting issue slowed the use of AZ and J&J in under 50s (now set to change it seems) and that Curevac, still seen as a realistic prospect when that 80% target was originally set, turned out to be a bust.


  • #4230
    Stark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,202 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Even without the blood clotting issue, we'd still be in a similar place to where we are with the supplies that we have. So far the vast majority of stock has been used.


  • Advertisement
  • #4231
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    Can you go do a gym workout after the jab?
    Or should u relax for a few days


Advertisement