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Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

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    #4202
    fun loving criminal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,489 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    Polar101 wrote: »
    I can't speak for the other 4,1 million doses given, but the person who administered mine was obviously a skilled and a professional medical practitioner. I would have embarassed myself if I had told her I watched videos on Youtube, and started giving her advice on how to do her job.

    Yet there are medical professionals giving injections without aspirating. I'll embarrass myself and be safe and alive.


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    #4203
    ceegee
    Registered Users Posts: 2,234 ✭✭✭ceegee


    fun loving criminal wrote: »
    Yet there are medical professionals giving injections without aspirating. I'll embarrass myself and be safe and alive.

    I'm sure they'll ignore the advise of all regulatory bodies once you explain that you've watched a YouTube video and therefore know more about best medical practice than they do.


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    #4204
    civdef
    Registered Users Posts: 3,057 ✭✭✭civdef


    fun loving criminal wrote: »
    Yet there are medical professionals giving injections without aspirating. I'll embarrass myself and be safe and alive.

    Those would be the medical professionals following current protocols rather than using an outdated non evidence based practice.

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/hcpinfo/conference/evidencebasedimmunisation.pdf


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    #4205
    xboxdad
    Registered Users Posts: 905 ✭✭✭xboxdad


    lucernarian wrote: »
    More than 5 times more cases than that scenario, despite the huge numbers of both previously infected and single or fully dosed people already? Which will increase too? RTE commissioned some modelling a couple of weeks ago, and they estimated total community immunity to be at like 43% at the time. That is a HUGE amount of people and dramatically changes the outlook and modelling parameters.


    43% immune leaves 57% unprotected, that's a lot of ppl to infect.

    40-60% more transmissible virus doesn't mean 40-60% more infected ppl. That means 40-60% more infected ppl at each "step", e.g. the increase is exponential which will skyrocket in just a few steps.


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    #4206
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users Posts: 4,977 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Apogee wrote: »
    Normal service has resumed...

    557251.jpg
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-29-june-2021.pdf

    Oh updated daily stats, how I’ve missed you


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    #4207
    Pat_bottom
    Registered Users Posts: 343 ✭✭Pat_bottom


    Mc-BigE wrote: »
    Dose 2 Pfizer appointment text 2 days ago.

    then, got a updated text yesterday from the HSE to answer online questions, i logged in, answered no to 2 questions (do/did you have covid-19 / blood clots)

    and now my appointment is cancelled :mad:

    i have to wait for a new appointment

    I rang them this morning, they cant do anything, its already being cancelled

    im not happy

    Just go along with your text anyway and play dumb. Don't even mention online. I got my first appointment and did the same as you and it cancelled. I turned up at the vax center and just showed them my text they couldn't find me but they found my details on system and gave it to me anyway.


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    #4208
    theintern
    Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭theintern


    amandstu wrote: »
    When does the Covid App come back properly?
    I've just checked the Geohive API, it's not updated yet, I'm not sure, but I'd assume that's what the Covid app was using too.



    Once that's back the normal flow of stats should hopefully resume.


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    #4209
    zebastein
    Registered Users Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    Is there any good reason why we are lagging so much behind the other European countries ?
    - Belgium has 60.8 % of population with 1dose
    - Denmark 56.6%
    - Italy 55.58
    - Germany 53.6
    - Spain 53.5
    - And we are under 50% with France, but France has opened the vaccine to everyone a month ago and it's just the uptake which is not great there.

    Why is it so hard to get vaccinated in Ireland ?

    Edit: We were told that Ireland has received several batches of 300k doses and that supplies are not an issue anymore. Yet we still have 2 days in a row below 40k doses per day. These are number we were already able to give end of April, where is the ramp up ?


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    #4210
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    zebastein wrote: »
    Is there any good reason why we are lagging so much behind the other European countries ?
    - Belgium has 60.8 % of population with 1dose
    - Denmark 56.6%
    - Italy 55.58
    - Germany 53.6
    - Spain 53.5
    - And we are under 50% with France, but France has opened the vaccine to everyone a month ago and it's just the uptake which is not great there.

    Why is it so hard to get vaccinated in Ireland ?

    Edit: We were told that Ireland has received several batches of 300k doses and that supplies are not an issue anymore. Yet we still have 2 days in a row below 40k doses per day. These are number we were already able to give end of April, where is the ramp up ?
    I'm not sure where you're getting your data from but according to the ECDC, we're in seventh place in terms of doses administered per 100 inhabitants.
    The only country in your list above who has administered more than we have, is Belgium.

    There will be regional differences in terms of proportion of single doses versus full vaccinations, due to differences in how countries schedule their gaps.

    Belgium, for example, is ahead of us on first doses (72% -v- 66%), but behind us on full vaccinations (42.3% -v- 43.4%), despite having administered more doses in total.

    Despite the wailing and the delays in some areas, it is not hard to get a vaccine in Ireland. Or at least not any harder than anywhere else.


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    #4211
    Skygord
    Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭Skygord


    Strazdas wrote: »
    I'd have my suspicions the Govt simply didn't want international travel to start tomorrow and deliberately delayed the launch of the cert by two or three weeks.

    Policy has been clear for a long time - no non-essential foreign travel till 19 July at the earliest.


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    #4212
    zebastein
    Registered Users Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    seamus wrote: »
    I'm not sure where you're getting your data from but according to the ECDC, we're in seventh place in terms of doses administered per 100 inhabitants.
    The only country in your list above who has administered more than we have, is Belgium.

    There will be regional differences in terms of proportion of single doses versus full vaccinations, due to differences in how countries schedule their gaps.

    Belgium, for example, is ahead of us on first doses (72% -v- 66%), but behind us on full vaccinations (42.3% -v- 43.4%), despite having administered more doses in total.

    Despite the wailing and the delays in some areas, it is not hard to get a vaccine in Ireland. Or at least not any harder than anywhere else.

    I am taking the Irish numbers from the screenshot above: 4.9millions inhabitants, so we have below 50% first doses and 32.5% second doses.

    And for other countries I take the data from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    It shows Germany and Italy having 36/37% fully vaccinated for example.


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    #4213
    theintern
    Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭theintern


    zebastein wrote: »
    Is there any good reason why we are lagging so much behind the other European countries ?
    - Belgium has 60.8 % of population with 1dose
    - Denmark 56.6%
    - Italy 55.58
    - Germany 53.6
    - Spain 53.5
    - And we are under 50% with France, but France has opened the vaccine to everyone a month ago and it's just the uptake which is not great there.

    Why is it so hard to get vaccinated in Ireland ?

    Edit: We were told that Ireland has received several batches of 300k doses and that supplies are not an issue anymore. Yet we still have 2 days in a row below 40k doses per day. These are number we were already able to give end of April, where is the ramp up ?


    At the end of April, our rates on Saturdays and Sundays were;
    - 25k & 12k (24th & 25th)
    - 19k & 12k (1st & 2nd May)

    These last numbers have us giving 37k & 38k on the latest Saturday and Sunday.

    The last week we have detailed stats for (3rd to 9th May) was 244,103 doses which was a massive record week at the time, by about 38k doses. Last week was 351,254 doses. If that doesn't look like a ramp up, I'm not sure what to tell you.

    If they can keep giving out doses at a rate of about 9% of the entire 16+ population each week (3,909,809) then I'm pretty satisfied with that.


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    #4214
    Pablo Escobar
    Registered Users Posts: 654 ✭✭✭Pablo Escobar


    zebastein wrote: »
    I am taking the Irish numbers from the screenshot above: 4.9millions inhabitants, so we have below 50% first doses and 32.5% second doses.

    And for other countries I take the data from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    It shows Germany and Italy having 36/37% fully vaccinated for example.

    It actually shows Italy on 31% and their data is a day ahead of ours. This is splitting hairs. Germany do appear to be ahead though. But it's a few days. We'll get there.


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    #4215
    zebastein
    Registered Users Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    theintern wrote: »
    At the end of April, our rates on Saturdays and Sundays were;
    - 25k & 12k (24th & 25th)
    - 19k & 12k (1st & 2nd May)

    These last numbers have us giving 37k & 38k on the latest Saturday and Sunday.

    The last week we have detailed stats for (3rd to 9th May) was 244,103 doses which was a massive record week at the time, by about 38k doses. Last week was 351,254 doses. If that doesn't look like a ramp up, I'm not sure what to tell you.

    If they can keep giving out doses at a rate of about 9% of the entire 16+ population each week (3,909,809) then I'm pretty satisfied with that.

    I forgot I was on boards.ie and people jump on the occasion to pretend they don't understand the message. I was obviously talking about the "expected ramp up".
    The plan was to double the roll out and reach 450k doses per week by the end of June (so +100% increase in 2months). Your message is that you are satisfied with a ramp up which is a 43% increase, so half of the plan. Good for you.

    I appreciate that we did not get all the J&J that we were promised, but anyway we are not even using what we have. Hence my question: why are other countries managing to ramp up as expected (numbers above) ?


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    #4216
    fun loving criminal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,489 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    ceegee wrote: »
    I'm sure they'll ignore the advise of all regulatory bodies once you explain that you've watched a YouTube video and therefore know more about best medical practice than they do.

    Vets aspirate when giving injections into the muscle. I'm surprised it's not being done to humans.


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    #4217
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    zebastein wrote: »
    I am taking the Irish numbers from the screenshot above: 4.9millions inhabitants, so we have below 50% first doses and 32.5% second doses.

    And for other countries I take the data from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    It shows Germany and Italy having 36/37% fully vaccinated for example.
    I'd go straight to the source:
    https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html

    Either way, like I say there are regional differences. 20.5% of our population is under 18.

    In Italy, 15% of the population is under 18. In Germany, 15.5%.

    This is why comparisons between countries on whole-population figures are misleading. The correct comparison is between the eligible populations.


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    #4218
    theintern
    Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭theintern


    zebastein wrote: »
    I forgot I was on boards.ie and people jump on the occasion to pretend they don't understand the message. I was obviously talking about the "expected ramp up".
    The plan was to double the roll out and reach 450k doses per week by the end of June (so +100% increase in 2months). Your message is that you are satisfied with a ramp up which is a 43% increase, so half of the plan. Good for you.

    I appreciate that we did not get all the J&J that we were promised, but anyway we are not even using what we have. Hence my question: why are other countries managing to ramp up as expected (numbers above) ?

    Ok then, your issue is with the rate at which we're administering vaccines compared with the rest of Europe? Let's look at those figures. Most of our EU counterparts are administering vaccines at between 0.8 and 1.1 doses per 100 people per day (7 day rolling average, source ourworldindata.org). I looked at Austria, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, France, Denmark, Belgium, Portugal.

    There are a few bumps and jumps in the data for Belgium and Portugal but generally the trend through the last month has been between 0.8 and 1.1. Currently Belgium is at 1.06 and Spain has ticked up to 1.14. Portugal are having a great 2 days, they're above 1.2 having been below 1.0 for the last month. Germany, Netherlands, Austria, France are all below 1.0.

    Take our 7 day rolling average based on the last full week to Sunday, which is 50,179 doses per day. Ourworldindata uses 4.93m as Irelands population, which you also quoted.

    Surprise surprise, that makes our 7 day average adjusted for population 1.01%. Exactly in line with the rest of Europe, and to be honest, on the upper end of the average.

    So what exactly are we doing wrong here?


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    #4219
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    xboxdad wrote: »
    43% immune leaves 57% unprotected, that's a lot of ppl to infect.

    40-60% more transmissible virus doesn't mean 40-60% more infected ppl. That means 40-60% more infected ppl at each "step", e.g. the increase is exponential which will skyrocket in just a few steps.
    This is an oversimplification. What the vaccine program is trying to achieve is primarily the reduction/avoidance of hospitalisation and death. The "43%" cohort consists of much/most of the people identified as being at higher risk of those outcomes.

    In any case, that doesn't translate well as an explanation because the numbers of vaccinated people will increase in tandem with the hypothetical spread of the delta variant, and we do know that the available vaccines are effective at dealing with case numbers and likely also transmission of the virus. The "steps" that you mention rely on a rapidly-dwindling population of unvaccinated people, eventually most of whom will be children.


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    #4220
    snotboogie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,607 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    seamus wrote: »
    I'd go straight to the source:
    https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html

    Either way, like I say there are regional differences. 20.5% of our population is under 18.

    In Italy, 15% of the population is under 18. In Germany, 15.5%.

    This is why comparisons between countries on whole-population figures are misleading. The correct comparison is between the eligible populations.

    The issue with that tracker is that its for 18+, however vaccines are distributed per capita, not per adult population per capita. Ireland has by far the youngest population in the EU so our place on that list is significantly skewed. The ourworld in data tracker is more accurate.


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    #4221
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    seamus wrote: »
    Despite the wailing and the delays in some areas, it is not hard to get a vaccine in Ireland. Or at least not any harder than anywhere else.

    That is objectively not true. How might a 26 year old be vaccinated in the last couple of weeks, short of nepotism or lucking out with the right GP? The answer in Ireland's case, and in the case of all other European countries, is quite different. A pathway for any adult to register and get a vaccine has not been established yet.


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    #4222
    Lumen
    Registered Users Posts: 31,084 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    snotboogie wrote: »
    The issue with that tracker is that its for 18+, however vaccines are distributed per capita, not per adult population per capita. Ireland has by far the youngest population in the EU so our place on that list is significantly skewed. The ourworld in data tracker is more accurate.

    They are both accurate but are measuring different things.

    The EU site is measuring how well Ireland is managing its relatively easier task compared to other countries with their harder task.

    OWID is measuring how far we are towards herd immunity.

    The herd immunity issue is complicated by the hypothesis that younger people don't spread covid as easily because they have a lower viral load and therefore shed less, which would mean that we could achieve herd immunity with a lower % total population vaccinated, but that hypothesis was formulated pre-delta and I don't know whether it stands up to scrutiny.


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    #4223
    snotboogie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,607 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Lumen wrote: »
    They are both accurate but are measuring different things.

    The EU site is measuring how well Ireland is managing its relatively easier task compared to other countries with their harder task.

    OWID is measuring how far we are towards herd immunity.

    The herd immunity issue is complicated by the hypothesis that younger people don't spread covid as easily because they have a lower viral load and therefore shed less, which would mean that we could achieve herd immunity with a lower % total population vaccinated, but that hypothesis was formulated pre-delta and I don't know whether it stands up to scrutiny.

    I know, I am saying we get distributed vaccines per capita, not per adult population. We should look at per capita vaccine distribution when comparing our rollout to the rest of the EU as this is how vaccines are allocated


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    #4224
    zebastein
    Registered Users Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    theintern wrote: »
    Take our 7 day rolling average based on the last full week to Sunday, which is 50,179 doses per day. Ourworldindata uses 4.93m as Irelands population, which you also quoted.

    [...]

    So what exactly are we doing wrong here?

    I am genuinely asking the question, I have not the answer.
    We were on track, at the same pace as other countries, we lose data for a month because of the hacking of the HSE, and when data come back we are 5 to 10% of population behind some other European countries.

    The last 7 days are not too bad, alright, but we probably had worse weeks beginning of June. We heard Paul Reid talking about record week last week, but nothing for what happened in June before.

    Are we going to catch up by opening J&J and AZ to younger cohorts ? It does not seem we have much in stock at this point. 60k J&J in pharmacies, that gives us the ability to catch up 1day / 1.5 days.


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    #4225
    Apogee
    Registered Users Posts: 3,798 ✭✭✭Apogee


    ceegee wrote: »
    Had it been announced that we'd breached the 60k mark on Friday? I can only remember mention of days being over 50k

    Reid mentioned reaching "over 54,000" on previous 4 of 7 days on the 28th. My guess is that when Friday's numbers were initially uploaded, the total for Friday was under 60K, but would have been revised upwards in the meantime taking it above the 60K mark.


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    #4226
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Lumen wrote: »
    They are both accurate but are measuring different things.

    The EU site is measuring how well Ireland is managing its relatively easier task compared to other countries with their harder task.

    OWID is measuring how far we are towards herd immunity.

    The herd immunity issue is complicated by the hypothesis that younger people don't spread covid as easily because they have a lower viral load and therefore shed less, which would mean that we could achieve herd immunity with a lower % total population vaccinated, but that hypothesis was formulated pre-delta and I don't know whether it stands up to scrutiny.
    I think accuracy is the wrong word in this situation, "relevance" might be more useful. The conclusion I'd make is that we are somewhat struggling compared to our European peers in vaccinating the eligible population.


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    #4227
    Reati
    Registered Users Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭Reati


    eoinbn wrote: »
    My point is that is it wrongly classified and that a person with just asthma no more reason to worry about covid than anyone else. The stress of thinking that you are at very high risk, when you aren't, is only going to do harm.

    But Asthma isn't listed. Severe asthma is. Very different.


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    #4228
    zebastein
    Registered Users Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    lucernarian wrote: »
    I think accuracy is the wrong word in this situation, "relevance" might be more useful. The conclusion I'd make is that we are somewhat struggling compared to our European peers in vaccinating the eligible population.

    Can a reason be that Ireland has decided to allocate random appointments while other countries open slot and people register themselves at a slot they chose ?

    Fictional example:
    If you tell 10 people to come this day at this time, maybe 4 or 5 will ask for a reschedule at the last minute, then you need to ask other people to come, who can also decline or miss their appointment in the portal and at the end you have 2 people missing.

    If you open 10 slots, and ask people to register themselves, they pick the slot they want, so there is no forth and back and you are sure they know they have an appointment. At the end of the day only 1 person does not show up.

    It may be more difficult now on an active population with children and commitments. That is how I read the fact that the HSE decided to stop rescheduling after 3 declines. They have enough cases happening so that they decide to take an action and set a rule.


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    #4229
    xboxdad
    Registered Users Posts: 905 ✭✭✭xboxdad


    lucernarian wrote: »
    This is an oversimplification. What the vaccine program is trying to achieve is primarily the reduction/avoidance of hospitalisation and death. The "43%" cohort consists of much/most of the people identified as being at higher risk of those outcomes.

    In any case, that doesn't translate well as an explanation because the numbers of vaccinated people will increase in tandem with the hypothetical spread of the delta variant, and we do know that the available vaccines are effective at dealing with case numbers and likely also transmission of the virus. The "steps" that you mention rely on a rapidly-dwindling population of unvaccinated people, eventually most of whom will be children.

    You can't just look at an individual country.

    Approx 18 months into the pandemic, humanity still didn't manage to vaccinate all adults on the planet, not even close.
    This leaves the virus an ideal field to experiment/mutate/evolve.
    When we all consider it done here, one day a guy from some poor country where vaccination uptake is still 10% will travel here some undocumented/indirect way and bring in a new strain that'll laugh at our vaccines - if we keep pretending it's enough to vaccinate our own ppl here.
    We can't leave this much space for the virus to experiment and evolve, anywhere on the planet - for this to be over.

    Also, I'm a parent and my #1 concern is children. Let's not pretend we know what covid will cause in asymptomatic ppl/children in the coming decades.
    Tons of ppl say they're afraid of unproven vaccines yet they're very happy to let an "unproven" virus infect entire generations of children and "see what happens" in the long term.
    I can't agree with that and I'm hoping this is becoming an increasingly outdated view originating from the times when we were still unsure if we could put out the very visible flames (immediate hospitalizations/deaths) and could focus on nothing else.


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    #4230
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,988 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Skygord wrote: »
    Policy has been clear for a long time - no non-essential foreign travel till 19 July at the earliest.

    The reason they gave (to the EU) for the delay was the ransomware attack, not the anti-travel policy.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0630/1232241-covid-ireland-figures/
    The European Commissioner for Justice has said that Ireland is the only European Union member state that will not be ready to comply with the EU Digital Covid Certificate for travel when it comes into effect on 1 July.

    This is due to the recent cyber attack on the Health Service Executive.


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    #4231
    Skygord
    Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭Skygord


    How far are we from being able to say "our vulnerable are fully vaccinated"?

    For this analysis, I've defined "our vulnerable" as:
    • Cohort 1 (Long Term Residential Care)
    • Cohort 3 (Over 70's)
    • Cohort 4 (Medically Very High Risk)
    • Cohort 5 (60's)
    • Cohort 7 (Medically High Risk)

    According to
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-29-june-2021.pdf

    the total of these cohorts awaiting their 2nd dose is 385,394, which breaks down to:
    • Cohort 1: 5114
    • Cohort 3: 32,223
    • Cohort 4: 43,438
    • Cohort 5: 221,061
    • Cohort 7: 83,558


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