Dublin Bay South By-Election

Marcusm · 05-07-2021 10:07am

I have just read that Ivana Bacik was featured on an RTE programme “National Treasures” last night and that FG are fuming. I can understand why. It’s not the sort of thing I would ever watch but I can imagine the humanising/personal narrative effect. I guess it shows that RTE’s programming side is not aligned with current affairs.

Topgear on Dave · 05-07-2021 10:11am

Marcusm wrote: »

I guess it shows that RTE’s programming side is not aligned with current affairs.

Not aligned eh :pac:

Brussels Sprout · 05-07-2021 10:51am

iwasliedto wrote: »

I think there has been only one poll with 500 participants. It will be interesting to see how accurate it is. It just under a 5% margin of error .

Even with with that MoE SF haven't a hope. And I say that as someone who took a punt on Boylan at 7/1 a month ago. It's a 2 horse race now.

Larbre34 wrote: »

PBP are just like SF. Once you get below the brains trust of the top 5 or 6 operators in the party there is just a chasm of untalent.

This is true for pretty much all parties, the only difference being that that the morons hide it a bit better in some of the other parties.

Marcusm wrote: »

Philip Ryan in the Indo has given the debate to Geoghegan and Byrne as the best performers 6/10.

Well, there's a shock :rolleyes:

AndrewJRenko · 05-07-2021 11:00am

Marcusm wrote: »

I have just read that Ivana Bacik was featured on an RTE programme “National Treasures” last night and that FG are fuming. I can understand why. It’s not the sort of thing I would ever watch but I can imagine the humanising/personal narrative effect. I guess it shows that RTE’s programming side is not aligned with current affairs.

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Not aligned eh :pac:

That series started weeks ago, and at a guess, was scheduled for the summer season long before Murphy resigned. Not everything is a conspiracy.

AndrewJRenko · 05-07-2021 11:02am

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Bizarre that Lynn Boylan is even contesting this election. Are SF trying to create a new healy-rae family dynasty?

I don't think they ever thought they had a reasonable chance of winning. She was put in as a well known, public face, the softer side of FG, someone who could give them a respectable showing, rather than take the seat.

She's make a serious shot at DSW in the next election.

AndrewJRenko · 05-07-2021 11:05am

WishUWereHere wrote: »

I would say the standard of potential politicians is very poor. To watch the PBP candidate stutter the way she did made me think she would be better off as a cast member of a Monty Python sketch.
.

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

This is true for pretty much all parties, the only difference being that that the morons hide it a bit better in some of the other parties.

I don't think that's fair at all. Facing the national media in a forum like this is very, very difficult. Smaller parties are less likely to have someone who has cut their teeth on the local Council and with local media.

Her poor media appearance tells you relatively little about how smart she is or isn't, or how good a TD she would be.

Beechwoodspark · 05-07-2021 11:05am

Just for info folks

SF already have a husband and wife combo in the dail

David cullinane and Kathleen funchion

Beechwoodspark · 05-07-2021 11:12am

This ff candidate is useless

Bad reflection on the director of election for this ocallaghan

scheister · 05-07-2021 11:13am

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Just for info folks

SF already have a husband and wife combo in the dail

David cullinane and Kathleen funchion

Per Wikipedia David cullinane and Kathleen funchion are divorced

Beechwoodspark · 05-07-2021 11:13am

scheister wrote: »

Per Wikipedia David cullinane and Kathleen funchion are divorced

Apologies - I was not aware of that.

Yurt2 · 05-07-2021 11:21am

Larbre34 wrote: »

PBP are just like SF. Once you get below the brains trust of the top 5 or 6 operators in the party there is just a chasm of untalent.

Believe it or not, this Mary Whitehouse meets Brass Eye sketch character is touted by FG as one of their 'bright young things'

CarProblem · 05-07-2021 11:30am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Have a think about what FG would have done without Labour, with the support of Ross's gang and the Kerry Mafia.

I have seen you and others post similar on this site many times. Without Labour we'd have had more FG led austerity (as an aside I think it's hilarious that people think less public expenditure could possibly be a bad thing).

Question: what happened after 2016 when FG was in power without the watchdogs of Labour?

Answer: Massive increase in government expenditure - see here

By the way this is an attack on FG, not a defence. Idiotic levels of public expenditure, debt and personal taxation are some of the main reasons (from a list of many) that I refuse to even countenance voting for any party that has been in power since 1997

Blut2 · 05-07-2021 11:41am

CarProblem wrote: »

Question: what happened after 2016 when FG was in power without the watchdogs of Labour?

Answer: Massive increase in government expenditure - see here

The state's finances in 2016 were in a very different position to 2011. The massive increase in government expenditure that was possible after 2016 was due to the economy booming 2016-2020, not FG ideology.

Chiparus · 05-07-2021 11:46am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Even with with that MoE SF haven't a hope. And I say that as someone who took a punt on Boylan at 7/1 a month ago. It's a 2 horse race now.

This is true for pretty much all parties, the only difference being that that the morons hide it a bit better in some of the other parties.

Well, there's a shock :rolleyes:

The way the poll was carried out would lead to a bias, the fact that Irish Times took down the paywall for it also is strange.

Are they trying to channel the anti government vote in a certain direction?

That said I am not sure it is an election SF would mind losing.

CarProblem · 05-07-2021 11:46am

Blut2 wrote: »

The state's finances in 2016 were in a very different position to 2011. The massive increase in government expenditure that was possible after 2016 was due to the economy booming 2016-2020, not FG ideology.

It was possible - that's not saying it should have happened.

Why did FG simply match increased levels of income with more expenditure with no benefit to the user of public services?

Why did we need to increase the pension when inflation was practically zero and rates of poverty, at risk of poverty and deprivation are lowest among pensioners?

Why did we increase dole (twice I think) by more a week than a worker on the median wage got in a tax cut?

Why did the bill for public sector pay increase so much?

Anyway the "Labour is the watchdog for nasty FG" narrative - zero basis IMO

Brussels Sprout · 05-07-2021 11:51am

SNIP. Don't do this here please.

Marcusm · 05-07-2021 12:12pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

That series started weeks ago, and at a guess, was scheduled for the summer season long before Murphy resigned. Not everything is a conspiracy.

Don’t know about the other poster but I saw it more as a cock up than a conspiracy. It should have been pulled until after the election. In an environment where the mere mention of one candidate on the radio necessitates a listing of all the runners/riders, this should not have happened.

Marcusm · 05-07-2021 12:15pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

This ff candidate is useless

Bad reflection on the director of election for this ocallaghan

Well now that needs to be considered. They had little in the way of prospect of winning, certainly not prospect of 2 seats. I think O’Callaghan has been on a winner of finding someone who ostensibly paints a better picture than the typical FF candidate but who can completely self-destruct (old blog posts and suing a travel company to offset against positive D case narrative) that he might have played his cards very well. He can blame the underperformance on her and not on his sway within the constituency. Overall a neutral result for him which is the best he could possibly have hoped for. Had she won or placed well then he almost certainly would have lost his seat at the next election.

Brussels Sprout · 05-07-2021 12:28pm

If Bacik does win the by-election it's going to make the next General Election in DBS very very interesting. That's due to the fact that FG will have no seat in the constituency but they will definitely win one at the next election.

The reason for that is that their vote may not be enough to reach the 50% quota needed to win a by-election but it will definitely be enough to hit the 20% quota required to take a seat in a 4-seat General Election.

In that scenario what sitting TD would lose out?

Eamon Ryan - topped the poll last time out but will likely see a drop in his support as a result of being in government
Chris Andrews - a surprise winner last time around. As the largest opposition party SF would be expected to do even better next time around so he would be expected to hold on
Ivana Bacik - Labour traditionally had a seat here (with Ruarí Quinn) and Bacik has a high enough profile to potentially hold this especially as an opposition TD
Jim O'Callaghan - got elected on the final count here in 2016 & 2020. Could potentially be a minister (or even Tanaiste) by the time of the next election (if MM stands down after leading the Taoiseach's office)

blackwhite · 05-07-2021 1:04pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If Bacik does win the by-election it's going to make the next General Election in DBS very very interesting. That's due to the fact that FG will have no seat in the constituency but they will definitely win one at the next election.

The reason for that is that their vote may not be enough to reach the 50% quota needed to win a by-election but it will definitely be enough to hit the 20% quota required to take a seat in a 4-seat General Election.

In that scenario what sitting TD would lose out?
Eamon Ryan - topped the poll last time out but will likely see a drop in his support as a result of being in government

Chris Andrews - a surprise winner last time around. As the largest opposition party SF would be expected to do even better next time around so he would be expected to hold on

Ivana Bacik - Labour traditionally had a seat here (with Ruarí Quinn) and Bacik has a high enough profile to potentially hold this especially as an opposition TD

Jim O'Callaghan - got elected on the final count here in 2016 & 2020. Could potentially be a minister (or even Tanaiste) by the time of the next election (if MM stands down after leading the Taoiseach's office)

I think Andrews would be the only one that could be considered "safe" in that scenario TBH. He'll likely poll in the 16-19% range, and pick up enough transfers from PBP INDs and SDs to get over the line.

Ryan has a fairly strong personal vote in the constituency, and I think he'll get enough FPVs and take enough transfers to hold on - but won't be straight in on first count like last time.

O'Callaghan could struggle to get above 13-14% (similar to 2020). He really struggled for transfers last time, and hard to see where he gets any new ones next time out.

If Bacik takes this seat then she will struggle to retain it. Her path to winning the bye-election is based on transfers from the Green and SF candidates being eliminated. In a full election, she needs one or both of those to be eliminated to get her enough transfers. If Ryan and Andrews both retain their seats, then it's very hard to see a path for Labour to hold a seat as well.

The biggest question in DBS for the next general election will be whether FG go for 1 or 2 candidates. Last time out they were a whisker from taking the 2nd seat, but if they are going into an election with no sitting TD then they could be tempted to go for the "sure thing" instead of putting up two candidates and not being sure which of them might miss out.

Annasopra · 05-07-2021 1:18pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Just for info folks

SF already have a husband and wife combo in the dail

David cullinane and Kathleen funchion

I thought they were divorced

Blut2 · 05-07-2021 1:27pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If Bacik does win the by-election it's going to make the next General Election in DBS very very interesting. That's due to the fact that FG will have no seat in the constituency but they will definitely win one at the next election.

The reason for that is that their vote may not be enough to reach the 50% quota needed to win a by-election but it will definitely be enough to hit the 20% quota required to take a seat in a 4-seat General Election.

In that scenario what sitting TD would lose out?
Eamon Ryan - topped the poll last time out but will likely see a drop in his support as a result of being in government

Chris Andrews - a surprise winner last time around. As the largest opposition party SF would be expected to do even better next time around so he would be expected to hold on

Ivana Bacik - Labour traditionally had a seat here (with Ruarí Quinn) and Bacik has a high enough profile to potentially hold this especially as an opposition TD

Jim O'Callaghan - got elected on the final count here in 2016 & 2020. Could potentially be a minister (or even Tanaiste) by the time of the next election (if MM stands down after leading the Taoiseach's office)

O'Callaghan will really struggle in this scenario I'd imagine. FF's Dublin and/or aged under 50 support numbers are already horrific, and with every year that goes by getting worse as what remains of their vote base quite literally dies off and they're deemed more and more out of touch.

If it was an FF backbencher they'd have absolutely no hope. But if O'Callaghan is leader of the party by then it does give him a chance at least.

jm08 · 05-07-2021 1:37pm

Blut2 wrote: »

O'Callaghan will really struggle in this scenario I'd imagine. FF's Dublin and/or aged under 50 support numbers are already horrific, and with every year that goes by getting worse as what remains of their vote base quite literally dies off and they're deemed more and more out of touch.

If it was an FF backbencher they'd have absolutely no hope. But if O'Callaghan is leader of the party by then it does give him a chance at least.

Chris Andrews would have taken a large slice of the FF vote with him to SF. One thing I'll say for Jim O'Callaghan - he is one of the few Councillors/TDs in this constituency that has been knocking on doors continually for the last few years. He is a very hard worker, and if he is the next leader of FF, I'd say he might take back a few votes from Chris Andrews in next gen. election.

Faugheen · 05-07-2021 2:13pm

Annasopra wrote: »

I thought they were divorced

They are.

Blut2 · 05-07-2021 4:07pm

jm08 wrote: »

Chris Andrews would have taken a large slice of the FF vote with him to SF. One thing I'll say for Jim O'Callaghan - he is one of the few Councillors/TDs in this constituency that has been knocking on doors continually for the last few years. He is a very hard worker, and if he is the next leader of FF, I'd say he might take back a few votes from Chris Andrews in next gen. election.

My impression of O'Callaghan is hes actually one of the better TDs in FF. Hes exactly what they need as leader to modernise the party and win back some urban support. Its just unfortunate that he happens to be in a very competitive constituency where theres no secure FF seat. If he was in Dublin West or Dun Laoghaire he'd be much safer.

KevRossi · 05-07-2021 4:11pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

This ff candidate is useless

Bad reflection on the director of election for this ocallaghan

O'Callaghan probably wanted her to run as she hasn't a hope. Means he has a free run at it at the next GE. That's also why he was made her Director of Elections, he can make sure she polls really badly.

05-07-2021 5:03pm

Once again the Indo/Sindo axis making a right tool of themselves. Giving very supportive and positive feedback about James Geoghegan while dismissing other candidates by giving them less coverage. I keep on saying this and I will say it again. The FG Indo/sindo are a danger to press freedom and democracy. They continue to turn a blind eye on the dark side of FG and continuously attack and discredit SF with gutter clickbait in order to satisfy their FG friends. Praying that Ivana Bacik will win the DBS by-election for those reasons in the above that I mentioned.

KevRossi · 05-07-2021 5:30pm

The Sindo got Kate O'Connell elected in 2016. They did anything to get Lucinda Creighton out. It's a privately owned newspaper so they can pretty much print whatever opinion they want, that's the pity of it.

AndrewJRenko · 05-07-2021 6:03pm

CarProblem wrote: »

I have seen you and others post similar on this site many times. Without Labour we'd have had more FG led austerity (as an aside I think it's hilarious that people think less public expenditure could possibly be a bad thing).

Question: what happened after 2016 when FG was in power without the watchdogs of Labour?

Answer: Massive increase in government expenditure - see here

By the way this is an attack on FG, not a defence. Idiotic levels of public expenditure, debt and personal taxation are some of the main reasons (from a list of many) that I refuse to even countenance voting for any party that has been in power since 1997

It's far from hilarious from those who depend on public expenditure for their health, their housing, their safety, their access to economic opportunities - for those people, less public expenditure is a serious threat to their health and welfare.

Comparing 2011 to 2016 is comparing apples and oranges - vastly different economic environments. We were literally bankrupt and depending on lenders for daily support in 2011.

AndrewJRenko · 05-07-2021 6:06pm

CarProblem wrote: »

It was possible - that's not saying it should have happened.

Why did FG simply match increased levels of income with more expenditure with no benefit to the user of public services?

Why did we need to increase the pension when inflation was practically zero and rates of poverty, at risk of poverty and deprivation are lowest among pensioners?

Why did we increase dole (twice I think) by more a week than a worker on the median wage got in a tax cut?

Why did the bill for public sector pay increase so much?

Anyway the "Labour is the watchdog for nasty FG" narrative - zero basis IMO

What kind of increases in public expenditure had no benefit to users? We wouldn't have been able to keep public services going at all on the austerity levels of 2008-2010, either in terms of absolute number of employees or ability to retain skilled employees in their posts.

The bill for public sector pay increased 'so much' because we had cut numbers of public servants to bare survival levels. Ask any parent who needed an SNA or nursing care to follow a critical operation.

Dublin Bay South By-Election

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