FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

I didn't and have no intention of deflecting from my original point about how this by election was a disaster for the governing parties Mark. No amount of 'the future is bright' PRing for FG will achieve that.

Again, which bit of 26.2% doesn't get FG a seat in a four-seater?

We all know who is deflecting here. It was the worst of times for the government, under attack from all sides on Covid, economic worries everywhere, and the main opposition party LOSES votes!!!

Make no mistake, it was a disaster. Every FG TD will feel nervous about his/her re-election prospects and transfer abilities.

Dublin Bay South with 0 FG TDs. FG heartland. What would Garrett say? They had 2 seats here just 5 years ago.

You still haven't answered the question in what universe does 26.8% for a single candidate not guarantee a seat on the first count in a four-seat constituency? So why should FG be worried about that?

The break has done you good Blanch. 2 seat possibility when you are currently 0 🤩

Where you getting Geoghegan might win a seat. The guy is done for. He was destroyed during the election destroyed. The voice of the renter or whatever he was championing himself as. He is a lame duck.

He got 26.8% of the vote. That would elect him on the first count in a general election. Some people really don't seem to understand the mathematical differences between by-elections and multi-seat elections.

26.8% of the vote were FG are the strongest party. Lets face it he was helped by FF and Green putting up pathetic candidates for election. It was set up for Geoghegan to win and he couldn't do it. If he does run in a general election hopefully he will cost FG both seats.

They have 0 now and unless they get a better candidate than little trust fund Jimmy they won't be getting one in the next election either.

It doesn't take much to upset FG these days. They are very touchy, don't even dare mention childrens shoes. This was a by-election where all the big names were out to canvass for him, even had the minister for Finance parading himself in the middle of the road and he still couldn't get elected. Can you imagine what it would be like the Geoghegan in a General Election, weere he wouldn't have the likes of Minister of Finance or Varadkar or Coveney going out to canvass for him.

Lads, lads, lads, the solid FG vote turned out for him, that was all he got, but it is more than enough. Halve his vote and he would still be in for the fourth seat. Lose one-quarter of his vote and he is still there on the first count.

The narrative of a FG disaster is wrong.

No, I am not retreating. FG, with 26.8% are guaranteed a seat in a general election. In fact, that is the only thing you can take forward from this.

Kate has burned her bridges, if there is a second candidate for FG (a big if), it won't be her.

Geoghegan, if he is the only candidate, is guaranteed a seat, probably on the first count.

How about you look at the Labour FPV% in 2020 - 7.9% and then explain why another Labour candidate destroyed her FG rival with 30% FPV and 5000 transfers despite the fact that FG ran a major campaign to retain their seat.

2016 = 2 seats from 4

2020 = 1 seats from 4

2021 = 0 seats from 4

The only thing you can guarantee is heartburn at the next election 😙