DBS By election - Thursday 8th July

Annasopra wrote: »

There wouldnt usually be an exit poll for a bye election so I doubt it

Darc19 wrote: »

True, but as there are probably no tallies, there may be one on Thursday.

On 26.8%, the inanimate carbon rod, as he was described on here, would be elected on the first count next time out.

By the time she was eliminated, Boylan had only reached 19.36% of the vote. A repeat from Andrews in the general election would see him scrape the last seat. I would expect Geoghegan, Bacik and Ryan to be sure of their seats next time out, with Andrews and O'Callaghan for the last one.

I don't think anyone expects that by election performance will be repeated in the general election, there's no way both bacik and Geoghegan will get in on the first count. By elections have their own dynamic after all.

I wasn't expecting Bacik to win, but I wasn't expecting FF to run such a god-awful candidate. FG really needed her to bring in votes that went left instead.

Bacik and Ryan are fishing in the same pool for a good chunk of their votes.

FG will get a seat in a GE here. Whether it's first count depends on whether they run 1 or 2 candidates.

Bacik lose some vote share to Ryan, and could also lose votes to a 2nd FG candidate if they run the right person (also factoring in that GE voting can be a bit different to a by-election as voters are also influenced by who they want to see in Govt). Expect Bacik to be much more transfer-friendly though - with Ryan taking a hit due to having been in Govt - and that would be enough to see her through.

Andrews will have a stronger personal vote that Boylan did within DBS (long history in the area, and good local rep from time as a councillor) and if he can hoover up a bit more of the votes that have gone to the fringe left in the past then could be expected to get around 18%. Last time out it was transfers from SocDems, followed by from Labour that got him over the line. If Bacik gets elected before the SD candidate is eliminated, then SF should expect to get over the line. If Andrews gets less than 17% on 1st count, and Bacik needs SD transfers to make the quota then SF could struggle to get the transfers needed - but ultimately I think he'll get over the line in 3rd (similar to 2020).

All that leaves O'Callaghan, Ryan and a possible 2nd FG candidate fighting over the last seat

Ryan won't get in on 1st count next time, and could find himself back closer to the 11% he got in 2016 than the 22% in 2020. He'll be looking for the SD transfers that Bacik and Andrews are also after. If FG decided not to run a 2nd candidate it might help Ryan a bit, but ultimately I think he will struggle next time out (if he doesn't decide to retire).

Big Jim could be in trouble. He's positioning himself as possibly the next leader of FF, but are they really likely to elect a leader who isn't even sure of winning a seat next time out? Whilst he's unlikely to repeat the disastrous showing that Conroy had, he's going to struggle to better 11-12% and he's really going to struggle for transfers from non-Govt parties.

The final seat will likely come down to which of the last 3 gets eliminated and who their transfers go to. If Ryan just needs to make sure he's not behind Jim O'C and FG2 as they get to the business end of the counts - if he's still there for the final count then he'll take enough transfers of whichever Govt candidate gets eliminated before him to get in.

Personally I thought FG did well to hold onto their aggregate vote. Real story is FF & Greens tanking..

It was interesting to see the anti-government vote coalesce around a "safe" candidate but also to see Geoghegan (despite the personalised criticism from some quarters) do well on first preferences and look certain of a seat next time.

Jim O Callaghan must be a bit worried, I doubt that the collapse of the FF vote was part of any masterplan!

My prediction for the general : apart from Geoghegan there are 4 candidates for 3 seats (Bacik, Andrews, O'Callaghan and Ryan) - if Bacik turns out to be an effective local politician I could see Ryan losing out.