July 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 15-07-2021 6:58pm

After two weeks ...

IMT now 15.6, second week average was 16.1 (0.7 above normal). A steady climb appears to be underway.

MAX still 24.9, MIN 5.1 ... MAX edged up to 25.0 after today, and will likely go higher in coming days. (edit 27 C at Mountdillon on 16th, reports will clarify the new max later).

PRC now 137% with the second week rather dry although variable, average 70%.

SUN has had a dismal performance so far, down to 49% of normal, with the second week only 42%.

M.T. Cranium · 16-07-2021 2:43am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117589896#Comment_117589896

I didn't notice this late forecast until we got a few days into that shutdown, and at that point I think I took note of the time on 4th but let's say that the score will be reduced to the minimum score of 10 or by 50, the actual late penalty by early 4th is actually 45 but in any case it appears likely that your score might be around 60 minus that late penalty, sorry I can't come up with anything better but I have to apply the rules as written. The overall effect will be a missed month in terms of the best 10 of 12 at the end of play, and you were not in the top half of the total score contest.

With the bonus already scored, a perfect forecast otherwise would add up to 95 but the way the IMT is going, that looks like being a low score too, most of the other guesses we'll have to wait and see, all of them are possibly good or not so good.

This late forecast will make a slight difference to the values for Con Sensus which I cannot edit in the table as shown, but those will be very slight differences from 12th ranked to average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts. While I'm at it, these would be as follows:

Con Sensus (adjusted) ___ 15.7 _ 27.9 _ 3.1 _ 099 _ 099 __ 22.0

appledrop · 17-07-2021 12:01am

Well we have a new Max today of 27.5 degrees at Mt. Dillion. Scorcher!!!!

Watch this space we may get to 28 over the weekend🏖🌡

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2021 1:48am

That is within 17 degrees of my highest temperature this summer. Wish I were kidding.

dacogawa · 17-07-2021 6:08pm

29.3c in Athenry today, highest temp of the year so far.

Outside the competition, across the boarder the record was broken with Ballywatticock Co. Down recording 31.2c

appledrop · 17-07-2021 6:09pm

31.2 degrees in Co. Down, unbelievable🌡⛱

I know we are Republic for official stats but still looks like we will record temperature max of 29 degrees today.

It's great the way for once everywhere in country seems to be benefiting from the scorcher!

Enjoy!🍹🏖

appledrop · 17-07-2021 9:47pm

Met Eireann said on twitter that it hit 29.5 at Athenry today.

Still 26 degrees at some stations at 9pm, never heard the likes of it in Ireland!

Edited- 29.5 is officially confirmed by Met Eireann. Definitely one of best days I ever remember in Ireland.

Joe Public · 19-07-2021 12:04am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618070#Comment_117618070

No problem MTC, as long as I don't carry some of the penalties into next month 🙂

M.T. Cranium · 19-07-2021 1:43am

Danno had a premonition this heat was coming, I don't know if he can quite make his numbers but the MAX scoring will definitely need some help, and the IMT will be into the high 16s quite soon at this rate.

200motels has 29.5 so if that holds up the boost will be reduced. We could also get into a zone where the IMT will need a boost, as there's a big gap between 18.1 and 16.4 in the forecast table.

Must admit, I was thinking August for any real heat this summer, just seemed to be heading the other way after June started that slide down, and the odds favored August looking at past Junes that did that sort of thing.

appledrop · 19-07-2021 5:43pm

Fair play Danno, I will admit that when I seen your prediction I was wondering where you were going with that temperature in Ireland, but looks like you will be right + rest of us wrong!

appledrop · 21-07-2021 5:29pm

And finally we break the 30 degrees!

30.1 recorded by Met Eireann on twitter at Mt Dillion.

This heatwave is unbelievable☀️🏖

Scorchio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited Met Eireann now saying it reached 30.8 at Mt. Dillion later on.

M.T. Cranium · 22-07-2021 5:53pm

After three weeks,

IMT has soared to 17.3, the third week average was 20.6 which was 4.9 above normal.

MAX 30.8 and MIN 5.1

PRC has dropped to 95% of normal, the third week was basically bone dry with an average of just 1% of normal.

SUN has soared to 113% (from previous 49%) with a remarkable third week average of 242% (1453/600).

The IMT yesterday was 21.6. With the forecast cooler conditions next week, it looks to me like the final IMT may be around 17.0. Despite this very sunny third week the monthly SUN may not finish much above normal, and PRC seems likely to resume a wetter pace too. Quite a contrast between the first half and this past week anyway.

appledrop · 22-07-2021 10:52pm

If we don't get a lower min we will all be way out apart from Danno again.

Danno have you a crystal ball for July's weather?🔮🪄

As you have all probably worked out I love the new icons. Sorry for those who don't like them but I just hate the new boards layout.

I'll never leave my weather forums though, so the icons brighten up the dreay whiteness.

M.T. Cranium · 26-07-2021 2:47am

The IMT has continued to rise and reached 17.7 C after Saturday with 17.8 the estimate through Sunday 25th. It seems likely to drop about 0.1 a day from now on, possibly 0.2 by later in the week, and should end up close to 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-07-2021 4:19pm

After four weeks ...

The IMT is 17.5 with the fourth week average 18.1 which was 2.4 above normal. This will likely end up around 17.3.

MAX 30.8 and MIN 5.1

PRC was at 90% with the fourth week at 75% of normal. This may end up closer to 95% after tonight's somewhat limited heavy rainfall comes and goes.

SUN now at 127% added considerably more with a sunny fourth week too at 167% (1002/600). Likely to finish around 125%.

Will post August contest some time Friday.

appledrop · 30-07-2021 11:00am

Thanks M T, maybe we could P M any of the regulars this month that don't post for August within time frame.

I'm just conscious that new boards might not be as easy to navigate + some people might forget or can't find August contest.

I hope we haven't lost anyone!

M.T. Cranium · 01-08-2021 5:10pm

IMT finished on 17.3

PRC ended up at 95%.

SUN is estimated now at 120% as the last three days fell below 50%.

I may try a provisional scoring effort later today or Monday, but the MS won't appear until Wed 4th due to the bank holiday, so any final scoring and annual update would need to wait for that confirmation.

M.T. Cranium · 03-08-2021 11:07am

Provisional scoring for July 2021

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ___ TOTALS

Danno _______________24 _ 14 _ 20 _ 13 _ 00 ___ 3 ______ 74

Sunflower3 ___________20 _ 16 _ 12 _ 15 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 74

waterways ___________ 23 _ 16 _ 01 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 8 ______ 71

SleetAndSnow ________ 21 _ 13 _ 06 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 9 ______ 70

Tae laidir _____________21 _ 11 _ 08 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 6 ______ 64

Mr Stonewall _________ 20 _ 14 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 6 ______ 60

____ Con Sensus ______ 17 _ 12 _ 03 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 59

MrSkinner ____________20 _ 08 _ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 ______ 58

Artane2002 ___________15 _ 13 _ 10 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 5 ______ 57

john mac _____________14 _ 15 _ 04 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 6 ______ 57

200motels ____ (-2) ___ 17 _ 19 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 2 _ 59-2 = 57

esposito ______________15 _ 11 _ 14 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 4 ______ 57

DOCARCH ____________ 15 _ 15 _ 03 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 3 ______ 56

___ NormaL __________ 12 _ 11 _ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 7 ______ 56

Kindred Spirit _________ 17 _ 12 _ 02 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 ______ 51

Appledrop ____________ 17 _ 10 _ 01 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 7 ______ 51

Adam240610 __________17 _ 09 _ 00 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 6 ______ 49

Jpmarn ______________ 17 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 _ 03 ___ 5 ______ 49

Dacogawa ____________ 14 _ 16 _ 01 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 2 ______ 47

M.T. Cranium __________12 _ 11 _ 01 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 42

Dasa29 ______________ 09 _ 00 _ 02 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 6 ______ 40

sryanbruen ___________ 09 _ 09 _ 03 _ 08 _ 03 ___ 6 ______ 38

Bsal _________________11 _ 01 _ 02 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 5 ______ 36

Pauldry ______________ 06 _ 06 _ 04 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 7 ______ 32

Gonzo _______________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 04 _ 02 ___ 4 ______ 19

Joe Public ____________ 10 _ 05 _ 01 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 __ 42 = 10

_____________________________________________

So these scores will need to be reviewed once I get the MS final values and have a chance to double check, as I am fighting some very low energy levels that I think are the result of the foul air quality around here (very smoky day after day, also hot and humid). If you do spot an error let me know. The score for Joe Public is the minimum of 10, as the late penalty was probably larger than the score. I basically scored the IMT off 16.6 rather than 17.3, except that Danno was 0.1 closer than the pack so he got one more point there. The MAX was scored by minimum progression with some modification to allow for large gaps between forecasts. The MIN was scored from 4.8 rather than 5.1 to create a minor boost, and those who were at zero but not below zero got one point. The PRC and SUN scores could be done normally. Bonus scoring was explained back around the 12th.

I will update this and then the annual scoring on Wednesday (I hope) as the MS won't appear today due to the holiday Monday.

Haven't forgotten about the August contest, will be wading into that mess to figure out who may still need a word about my unclear bonus question, I did notifce yesterday that most had responded and provided a daily scale forecast. If you read this and have no idea what's up, go in and have a look at the comments about the bonus including mine towards the end.

appledrop · 03-08-2021 11:25am

Well done Danno + Sunflower3 you share the 🥇this month just like the high jumpers at the Olympics. BRAVO 👏.

Tae laidir · 03-08-2021 11:46am

Thanks MT.

Doesn't sound like a nice environment.

Hope you get some heavy rain to put out the fires.

pauldry · 03-08-2021 11:50am

Well done to the people who saw that heatwave coming.

My points total was as grim as August looks. 💩

M.T. Cranium · 04-08-2021 11:02am

A quick check of the MS does not reveal any unexpected data and confirms my sunshine estimate at 120% so this is now the updated table for annual scoring.

Annual scoring update January to July 2021

The ranks before the forecaster's name refer to total (all seven months where applicable) scores and the second entry in brackets is the previous month's rank for that. ... The rank after "best 6/7" is for that category and the second entry in brackets there is also last month's rank for best 5/6. This category is only ranked for those who have now played at least five of seven. The "best of" scoring will continue in this way to August (best 7 of 8) then will become best 7 of 9 in September, so you're still alive in that contest so long as you have only missed two months. Anyone near the bottom of rankings with only 5/7 scores is actually doing better than their rank indicates, as long as they don't miss a future contest.

rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul __ TOTAL___ best 6/7__ rank (prev)

_01_(t02) __sunflower3 _________76 _ 37 _ 72 _ 66 _ 67 _ 66 _ 74 __ 458 _______ 421 ____ 01 (01)

(02)_(t01)_____Con Sensus _____ 65 _ 59 _ 81 _ 67 _ 64 _ 49 _ 59 __ 444 _______ 395 ____(02) ((06))

_02_(01)__ Appledrop __________56 _ 75 _ 75 _ 52 _ 74 _ 53 _ 51 __ 436 _______ 385 ____ 02 (03)

_05_(t02)__sryanbruen _________75 _ 76 _ 47 _ 69 _ 60 _ 57 _ 38 __ 422 _______ 384 ____ 03 (02)

_03_(04)__ Artane2002 _________67 _ 48 _ 87 _ 61 _ 63 _ 43 _ 57 __ 426 _______ 383 ____ 04 (04)

_07_(t08) __ john mac __________62 _ 68 _ 68 _ 34 _ 52 _ 73 _ 57 _ 414 _______ 380 ____ 05 (05)

_04_(05) __ MrSkinner _________ 58 _ 63 _ 75 _ 70 _ 47 _ 53 _ 58 __ 424 _______ 377 ____ 06 (07)

(10)_(11) __ __ NormaL ________59 _ 76 _ 58 _ 48 _ 35 _ 73 _ 56 __ 405 _______ 370 ____(11) ((11))

_06_(07) __ DOCARCH _________ 54 _ 50 _ 70 _ 54 _ 54 _ 80 _ 56 __ 418 _______ 368 ____ 07 (t11)

_11_(11)__ Adam240610 _______ 58 _ 68 _ 54 _ 65 _ 72 _ 31 _ 49 __ 397 _______ 366 ____ 08 (t08)

_09_(t08)__dacogawa __________79 _ 60 _ 67 _ 61 _ 50 _ 40 _ 47 __ 404 _______ 364 ____ 09 (t08)

_08_(06)__ Pauldry ____________58 _ 47 _ 72 _ 64 _ 79 _ 43 _ 43 __ 406 _______ 363 ____ 10 (06)

_10_(10)__ JPmarn ____________63 _ 76 _ 69 _ 64 _ 39 _ 40 _ 49 __ 400 _______ 361 ____t11 (t11)

t 14_(t15) ___Kindred Spirit _____58 _ 82 _ 67 _ 27 _ 55 _ 48 _ 51 __ 388 _______ 361 ____t11 (13)

t 14_(t20) __ waterways ________55 _ 62 _ 29 _ 41 _ 62 _ 68 _ 71 __ 388 _______ 359 ____ 13 (t20)

_12_(18) __ tae laidir __________ 67 _ 64 _ 74 _ 39 _ 35 _ 49 _ 64 __ 392 _______ 357 ____ 14 (t18)

_13_(17) __ Mr stonewall _______ 65 _ 59 _ 41 _ 68 _ 60 _ 38 _ 60 __ 391 _______ 353 ____ 15 (t18)

_16_(14)__ M.T. Cranium _______ 47 _ 37 _ 65 _ 79 _ 47 _ 65 _ 42 __ 382 _______ 345 ____t16 (t15)

_18_(19) ___200motels _________38 _ 65 _ 47 _ 75 _ 33 _ 63 _ 57 __ 378 _______ 345 ____t16 (t20)

_17_(12) __ Bsal ______________ 41 _ 50 _ 73 _ 48 _ 62 _ 70 _ 36 __ 380 _______ 344 ____ 18 (t15)

_21_(13)__ Cirrus Business ______35 _ 53 _ 73 _ 67 _ 72 _ 42 _ --- __ 342 _______ 342 ____ 19 (14)

_19_(t15) __Gonzo _____________81 _ 20 _ 83 _ 40 _ 74 _ 39 _ 19 __ 356 _______ 337 ____ 20 (t08)

_22_(t20)__ Western Storm ______45 _ 81 _ 74 _ 33 _ 40 _ 44 _ --- __ 317 _______ 317 ____ 21 (22)

_20_(22) ___dasa29 ___________ 48 _ 43 _ 65 _ 42 _ 54 _ 56 _ 40 __ 348 _______ 308 ____ 22 (23)

_23_(23) __ eon1208 __________ 53 _ 76 _ 62 _ 58 _ --- _ 46 _ --- __ 295 _______ 295 ____ 23 (17)

_24_(25) __ Danno ____________ 38 _ 10 _ 25 _ 65 _ 66 _ --- _ 74 __ 278 _______ 278 ____ 24 (25)

_26_(26) __ SleetandSnow ______ 30 _ 41 _ 77 _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 70 __ 268 _______ 268 ____ 25 (26)

_25_(24) __ Joe Public __________41 _ 42 _ 45 _ 58 _ 30 _ 48 _ 10 __ 274 _______ 264 ____ 26 (24)

_27_(27) __ funsterdelux ________59 _ 40 _ 62 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 161

_28_(30) __ Esposito ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 57 _ 57 __ 114

_29_(28) __ sdanseo ___________51 _ --- _ 52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 103

_30_(29) __ BLIZZARD7 ________ 10 _ 21 _ 34 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 65

_31_(31) __ Bazlers ____________ 34 _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 34

_32_(32) __ Tazio _____________ --- _ 26 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 26

===========================================================

Congrats to sunflower3 for maintaining a lead over all including Con Sensus. The chase pack has been scrambled a bit; however, things won't be too clear as to the order until we begin to drop two low scores.

M.T. Cranium · 07-08-2021 9:01pm

Updated category totals for all forecasters -- Jan to July 2021

This table's order is the present contest order but for total score (actual as shown below, total after penalties) and not the best 6 / 7 order of the scoring table.

Forecaster ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BNS Tot Act (Pen)

Max Possible __ 175 140 140 105 070 070+ 700 700 -- -- _Max Possible

Sunflower3 ___ 112 094 100 060 049 046 _461 458 003 _Sunflower3

__Con sensus __116 090 077 069 048 044 _444 444 000 _Con Sensus

Appledrop ____ 118 089 067 071 039 052 _436 436 000 _Appledrop

Artane2002 ___ 111 094 086 049 042 044 _426 426 000 _Artane2002

MrSkinner ____ 129 064 084 051 051 045 _424 424 000 _Mr Skinner

sryanbruen ___ 122 086 062 060 042 050 _422 422 000 _sryanbruen

DOCARCH ____ 103 104 058 061 054 038 _418 418 000 _DOCARCH

john mac _____121 076 060 058 053 046 _414 414 000 _john mac

Dacogawa ____ 110 087 070 059 045 033 _404 404 000 _Dacogawa

Jpmarn ______ 135 056 082 048 042 039 _402 400 002 _ Jpmarn

pauldry ______ 111 084 047 054 047 051 _394 394 000 _pauldry

__ NormaL ____115 073 057 061 053 046 _405 405 000 __NormaL

Adam240610 __120 072 085 063 029 039 _408 397 011 _Adam240610

Tae laidir _____ 118 076 046 059 048 045 _392 392 000 _Tae laidir

MrStonewall ___106 081 065 063 042 034 _391 391 000 _MrStonewall

waterways ____ 125 041 063 052 051 060 _392 388 004 _waterways

Kindred Spirit __121 066 056 080 038 031 _392 388 004 _Kindred Spirit

M.T. Cranium __115 073 058 060 043 033 _382 382 000 _M.T. Cranium

Bsal _________ 104 069 052 075 049 031 _380 380 000 _Bsal

200motels ____ 110 073 046 060 046 050 _385 375 010 _200motels

Gonzo _______ 105 065 068 053 040 042 _373 356 017 _Gonzo

Dasa29 _______101 023 062 071 050 041 _348 348 000 _Dasa29

CirrusBusiness_ 110 057 041 064 034 036 _342 342 000 _CirrusBusiness (6/7)

Western Storm_ 082 044 047 062 046 036 _317 317 000 _WesternStorm (6/7)

Eon1208 ______079 045 056 047 040 030 _297 295 002 _Eon1208 (5/7)

Danno _______ 058 056 051 061 022 025 _273 278 -005_Danno (5/7)

Joe Public _____073 047 073 052 038 025 _308 274 034 _Joe Public

SleetAndSnow _ 070 049 036 043 041 034 _273 268 005 _SleetAndSnow (5/7)

Funsterdelux __ 037 029 038 022 026 016 _168 161 007 _Funsterdelux (3/7)

Esposito ______ 039 024 016 023 006 006 _114 114 000 _Esposito (2/7)

sdanseo ______ 037 016 010 020 013 012 _108 103 005 _sdanseo (2/7)

BLIZZARD7 ____016 017 000 021 006 004 _064 065 -001_BLIZZARD7 (3/7)

Bazlers _______ 019 000 000 005 010 000 _034 034 000 _Bazlers (1/7)

Tazio _________001 000 012 008 005 002 _028 026 002 _Tazio (1/7)

_______________________________________

Note: A negative penalty is a score adjustment upwards from the category totals, for a minimum score (which is 10).

Contest rank is based on "Act" (actual), "Tot" is category total score before penalty or adjustment.

Three highest totals in each category:

IMT __ JPmarn 135 (77.1%) _ MrSkinner 129 (73.7%) _waterways 125 (71.4%)

MAX __ DOCARCH 104 (74.3%) _Artane2002, sunflower3 94 (67.1%)

MIN __ Sunflower3 100 (71.4%) _ Adam240610 85 (60.7%) _ MrSkinner 84 (60.0%)

PRC __ Kindred Spirit 80 (76.2%)_ bsal 75 (71.4%) _ dasa29, appledrop 71 (67.6%)

SUN __ DOCARCH 54 (77.1%) _John mac 53 (75.7%) _Mr Skinner, waterways 51 (72.9%)

BONUS _ waterways 60 (85.7%), Appledrop 52 (74.3%), Pauldry 51 (72.9%)

thanks again to tae laidir for getting this interesting contest aspect started earlier this year.

July 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

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