The UK response - Part II - read OP

06-07-2021 10:23pm

Aegir wrote: »

At the peak of the last wave, there were over 4000 hospitalizations per day. During the winter, there are likely to be 1000 flu patients admitted per day.

Well that's just not true. Hospital admissions for flu in the UK during winter typically range from 200-1,000 per week. 1,000 a day is unheard of for flu.

I'm not saying 1,000 covid admissions a day is not manageable, but there is no guarantee you can maintain it at a steady level. UK is basically going back to the original herd immunity plan, the intent now is to let it rip, hoping vaccine coverage is enough for the NHS to cope.

06-07-2021 10:33pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well that's just not true. Hospital admissions for flu in the UK during winter typically range from 200-1,000 per week. 1,000 a day is unheard of for flu.

I'm not saying 1,000 covid admissions a day is not manageable, but there is no guarantee you can maintain it at a steady level. UK is basically going back to the original herd immunity plan, the intent now is to let it rip, hoping vaccine coverage is enough for the NHS to cope.

Apologies, respiratory illness Why it's time to think differently about Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942

Vaccine coverage has to be enough. If it isn’t then the human race has lost this particular battle.

brickster69 · 06-07-2021 11:18pm

gozunda wrote: »

In December countries all over the world closed off their borders to the UK. Looks like many will have to do that again.

Not a fan of the Guardian but it tells how that came to pass ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/worlds-media-ask-how-it-went-so-wrong-for-plague-island-britain-covid

Plague Island indeed.

Have you noticed what the UK has done over the last few months ?

A huge testing campaign backed up by the worlds most advanced Genome sequencing industry. This has what has broke the link between transmission and deaths.

Not just opening testing stations for those with symptoms but actively testing those without symptoms. Catching them and isolating them while the rest of Europe backed off on testing thinking it was all over.

Unfortunately the countries who never bothered carrying on a mass testing program will find they may not of broken that link at all.

Time will tell but in 4 months we will see who did things right.

S.M.B. · 06-07-2021 11:30pm

I'm confused. How has mass testing broken the link between transmission and deaths?

RE : the lifting of restrictions

I definitely have my reservations. The last time the UK opted to go with a mitigation vs suppression strategy it didn't go too well. I guess at some stage further restrictions are going to have to be lifted but in my mind a slower easing makes more sense.

brickster69 · 06-07-2021 11:35pm

S.M.B. wrote: »

I'm confused. How has mass testing broken the link between transmission and deaths?

That is for you to work out if you don't know

gozunda · 07-07-2021 2:27am

brickster69 wrote: »

Have you noticed what the UK has done over the last few months ? A huge testing campaign backed up by the worlds most advanced Genome sequencing industry. This has what has broke the link between transmission and deaths.

Not just opening testing stations for those with symptoms but actively testing those without symptoms. Catching them and isolating them while the rest of Europe backed off on testing thinking it was all over.

Unfortunately the countries who never bothered carrying on a mass testing program will find they may not of broken that link at all.Time will tell but in 4 months we will see who did things right.

Well no. The UK currently has a 14-day-incidence-rate approx 4 times or own. Both their death and case rate for covid since the start of the Pandemic are excessive given the resources available they have had to manage the pandemic.

The one thing they have got right is their vaccination programme and they've effectively sidelined that for the idea of herd immunity as was first mooted by Boris et al back at the start of the pandemic and quickly binned - only to be resurrected less than a couple of months short of the deadline of the UKs own vaccination programme.

Time will indeed tell ....

MadYaker · 07-07-2021 2:51am

Scrapping the masks and social distancing is completely bonkers. Was anybody even asking for that? Everyone is in the habit of it now. I feel so sorry for anyone working in the NHS.

07-07-2021 2:54am

The masks thing and calling it Freedom Day is absurd. There will be anything but a feeling of freedom for many who will fear going out when the plan is they get it.

Lumen · 15-07-2021 7:05am

Tim Spector calls the plateau, expects long tail due to loosening restrictions.

https://youtu.be/gwUSC6rid4A

LuckyLloyd · 15-07-2021 9:05am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117611461#Comment_117611461

Fairly realistic assessment of the situation.

Dave0301 · 16-07-2021 4:14pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117612048#Comment_117612048

Judging by the last couple of days and the 50000 plus for today, he might have called that plateau a bit early!

LuckyLloyd · 16-07-2021 4:25pm

Yeah, agreed! Hospitals starting to defer care now as hospitalisations rise.

brickster69 · 16-07-2021 4:38pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117620543#Comment_117620543

Could look at it like 50K people have been caught and are now stopped from passing it on to others.

Dave0301 · 16-07-2021 5:58pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117620653#Comment_117620653

You absolutely could...if you don't understand how viruses work.

Dave0301 · 16-07-2021 6:02pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117620589#Comment_117620589

Will almost certainly be an after effect of the Euros. Hospitalisations are obviously the most crucial number now and not daily cases, bit still difficult to reconcile the ending of all legal restrictions on Monday with current data.

MadYaker · 17-07-2021 4:16pm

Will there be a big u turn? Seems unlikely.

Dave0301 · 17-07-2021 4:42pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117624506#Comment_117624506

I doubt it. They seem to have set their stall out, although a few more weeks to increase the number of people double vaccinated would have helped.

Other European countries will see similar case numbers in the months ahead as the Delta variant spreads. Spain and the Netherlands are already doing so, as is the USA compared to a few weeks ago.

JP Liz V1 · 17-07-2021 10:23pm

Did I hear correct on the RTE news that Primark was giving vaccines out

A Dub in Glasgo · 18-07-2021 11:29am

So Johnson and Sunak made a pathetic attempt to circumvent the self isolation rules following the positive test of Javid (like Gove did in May). Now they have been shamed into a u-turn and go into self isolation. The fact that they attempted it shows how corrupt they are

deeperlearning · 18-07-2021 5:02pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117626887#Comment_117626887

Johnson ....no need to isolate.......pilot study, bla, bla, bla........

Johnson (2 hours later) Whoa, backlash! Scary! Backtrack! Backtrack! I will isolate, after all...

AlekSmart · 18-07-2021 5:17pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117626887#Comment_117626887

Could it be the dreaded Cornwall Variant.....? https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-raab-defends-g7-barbecue-world-leaders-social-distancing-b940326.html

brickster69 · 18-07-2021 6:22pm

Horrendous figures

cov.jpg

Timberrrrrrrr · 18-07-2021 6:30pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117628783#Comment_117628783

From January???

S.M.B. · 18-07-2021 7:35pm

Assuming that's some obtuse comment on the fact that 7 months ago when there were ~35000 cases a day there were 560 deaths.

brickster69 · 18-07-2021 7:42pm

Cases by ages

bloopy · 18-07-2021 7:50pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117628783#Comment_117628783

Why are you posting figures from January?

Chris_5339762 · 18-07-2021 9:00pm

Methinks they saw the 18th and didn't realise they were six months out!!

BonnieSituation · 18-07-2021 9:01pm

Well, here's today's anyway for England...

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1416776531989442562?s=19

deeperlearning · 19-07-2021 12:04am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117625816#Comment_117625816

Yes.

The Tate Modern was also an option.

ancapailldorcha · 19-07-2021 8:17am

FFS like:

BonnieSituation · 19-07-2021 11:58am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117629422#Comment_117629422

Can someone tell me how to embed Twitter on NuBoards?

I know there's some settings toggle but can't find it on mobile.

Lumen · 19-07-2021 12:40pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631545#Comment_117631545

Use the [<>] button to Insert Media, and then paste the URL of the Tweet.

deeperlearning · 19-07-2021 12:52pm

'Freedom day' has turned into 'Closure day' with a sweep of announcements of closures due to staff shortages

Boris has bumbled it again.

muddypuppy · 19-07-2021 12:59pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631851#Comment_117631851

I really don’t understand it. Freedom day was sold as being done with all restrictions. How is that compatible with having to self-isolate if you’re a close contact of a (suspected) case?

Even here you don’t have to isolate if you’re fully vaccinated.

TefalBrain · 19-07-2021 1:05pm

Great to see the UK taking this route. Lots of young people out and about living their lives after the horrible couple of years they have had. Enjoy it young un's 👍️

sekiro · 19-07-2021 1:06pm

I don't really understand the "backlash" against England opening up.

Either vaccines work or they don't.

Its not like Boris is going door to door and dragging people to the pub or that you won't be allowed into Tesco unless you take your mask off.

If anything what today represents is handing personal responsibility back to the individual.

BonnieSituation · 19-07-2021 1:08pm

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1416776531989442562?s=19

There we are now.

BonnieSituation · 19-07-2021 1:09pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631851#Comment_117631851

I'm off over to the mainland now on Thursday. I'm dreading it tbh.

Seth Brundle · 19-07-2021 1:22pm

All's well that ends well...

https://twitter.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1417013403898503171

AllForIt · 19-07-2021 1:25pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631930#Comment_117631930

It's just part of the daily onslaught directed at the UK brexit govenment by the usual crown. They'ed love to see this go wrong followed by resignations.

If this goes right it will be another massive plus for the Torys after the vaccine rollout success which is bound to overshadow the initial comparative high death rates. One can imagine how that outcome would make some people more bitter than they already are.

Seth Brundle · 19-07-2021 1:31pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117632020#Comment_117632020

I think it is more that people are bemused at how the UK is opening up pretty much completely despite the daily numbers and the stark warnings by the scientists. The fact that the leader of the UK has had to self-isolate on their "Freedom Day" makes a mockery of this so called freedom from Covid.

As for your "if this goes right..." - what if it goes wrong, as the science is warning?

sekiro · 19-07-2021 1:34pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631940#Comment_117631940

That's pretty impressive to be honest.

So compared to the January tweet they are seeing 10k more cases but the number of deaths is more than twenty times less.

Proof that vaccines work to blow away any remaining doubts.

Opening up makes sense when you see the difference there.

Otherwise I think the alternative would be to really never be able to open up.

I do wonder what it would be like if they just waited another month or two.

sekiro · 19-07-2021 1:41pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117632053#Comment_117632053

What is the science warning specifically?

My understanding is that even with vaccinations there will always be new cases.

The advantage being less deaths.

So any kind of opening up will lead to a surge in cases even if the whole country is vaccinated.

Vulnerable groups must surely be vaccinated now with almost 70% of adults double dosed at this stage. Plus they can stick to distancing and hand washing etc if they want. No need to go to busy shops etc if they don't want to.

The science seems to be warning that even with vaccinations we'd still need to keep locking down.

Are scientists saying to wait a month or two or what? They must surely agree with Boris that restrictions must be lifted. They just disagree on when?

Timberrrrrrrr · 19-07-2021 1:50pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631943#Comment_117631943

Why? Do you think people are going to be coughing/sneezing all over you?

BonnieSituation · 19-07-2021 2:20pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117632154#Comment_117632154

Exaggerate much?

I'm dreading it because only for it's an essential journey the last thing on god's green earth I'd be doing now is heading to England. Can one not "dread" anymore for fear of pro-Tory right-wingers deeming one's feelings and thoughts being invalid?

I've not left this island since 28th December 2019, I didn't envisage I'd be travelling during these circumstances and the UK, despite death numbers, are not in a good place.

I fully expect to isolate and test on my return to ensure the safety of those around me.

Seth Brundle · 19-07-2021 2:21pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117632089#Comment_117632089

The date for Freedom Day was chosen long before the scientific advisors could predict how the numbers would be on the date. It was chosen purely for political reasons, most likely after the Euros when it was hoped that England would have won and this would have further elevated spirits in England.

As for what the scientists are advising, here is what a thousand of them are saying...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1461904/boris-johnson-freedom-day-herd-immunity-independent-sage-covid19-coronavirus

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pm-johnsons-new-covid-gamble-worries-some-scientists-2021-07-08/?taid=60e6c6c7fdc7d300011fd69b&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

In terms of why, the main reason is that by removing the various restrictions, the UK government are basing their strategy from here on purely on vaccinations and nothing else, which doesn't appear to have any credible scientific backing...

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/freedom-day-or-anxiety-day-england-end-covid-19-curbs-2021-07-15/

Timberrrrrrrr · 19-07-2021 2:33pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117632429#Comment_117632429

What's to "dread" though? It's not as if people are suddenly taking no precautions whatsoever. I've just come back from my local town as I needed to get some supplies, today felt the same way alit did six months ago, people in shops still wearing masks and keeping thier distance.

brickster69 · 19-07-2021 2:36pm

Been out and about this morning. Quite a few cars less in the street parked up, probably people going back to work instead of working from home

Went to 2 supermarkets, 95% of people still wearing masks myself included. Was a bit strange seeing people without them like.

Looks like a few more shops and gyms have opened up that were shut.

Popped to the local read the paper and had a couple of pints. Really strange on a boiling hot day that most people were indoors and quite a few groups of older people sat together having a laugh which was nice, no masks in sight, no signing in and actually going to the bar and having your drink passed to you felt good, 17 months since that was allowed.

Apart from that not much different to yesterday really.

Pete_Cavan · 19-07-2021 2:40pm

Comparing deaths now, at the start of a wave, to deaths in January, at the end of a wave, is very disingenuous. Deaths are certainly going to be lower this time round, thanks to vaccines, but that comparison is meaningless. Even with lower Covid deaths now, additional people in hospitals than there otherwise should be is going to have a knock-on effect on treatment received by others. On top of that, there are staff shortages due to the isolation requirements.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1416986104327254019?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July

timmyntc · 19-07-2021 2:58pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117632434#Comment_117632434

In terms of why, the main reason is that by removing the various restrictions, the UK government are basing their strategy from here on purely on vaccinations and nothing else, which doesn't appear to have any credible scientific backing...

Genuine question - what is the path to normality if not through vaccinations?

The UK response - Part II - read OP

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