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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I know what she said. She took her football and went home. A proper scientist submits to peer review. A crank and a contrarian who has a position that she cannot defend with evidence, accuses all of the other scientists of being in a conspiracy to hide the real science


    The part you have bolded is the most hypocritical thing about it. She left academia so she could operate her own blog where she posts her own personal and political opinions, trading off her previous status as a publishing scientist, to give her political beliefs more weight then they are worth as a blogger.


    She also doesn't have to report any conflicts of interest now that she's not a publishing scientist anymore

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I give up. I can't take this new fookin layout anymore. Impossible to follow the thread on a phone. Where's the Angry emoticon?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    The floods were a result of the jet stream where something similar happened 5 years ago as a low pressure system was trapped between two high pressure systems-


    https://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/heres-what-caused-deadly-floods-germany-and-france



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The floods were the result of evaporation condensing into rain



    why was there so much rain? Because there was a lot of moisture in the air


    warmer air holds more moisture than colder air

    The floods in Germany obliterated some rainfall records 154mm of rain in 24 hours versus the previous record of 95mm

    the jet stream has always been there, what else has changed?

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,716 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    How many weather stations had new records? A lot of German had heavy rain but most of Germany has zero flooding.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Lads, this is getting pretty weak now. Entire villages washed away in Germany in freak flash floods, and your response is 'but lots of other villages didnt get washed away'


    I mean, it's on a par with downplaying a school shooting by pointing at the children who didn't get shot...

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Interesting that the person who thinks we can adapt to climate change can't adapt to a minor inconvenience caused by a buggy website.

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Europe is underwater, America is burning the Artic and Antarctic are melting, some say it’s all a hoax, I wonder if their now wondering!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,716 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    I live in Germany and there are no floods here. I saw terrible floods in this region in 2002 and 2013. Its very hard measure these events so I was just asking has anyone done so?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Flooding is becoming more of an issue because of the reluctantly of local authorities to dredge rivers. Secondly our urban areas are expanding leaving less soil cover to soak excess water. I agree that humans are causing more flooding by those direct measures outlined above. The idea that a subtle temperature increase is solwy causing the flooding is absurd.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande



    That's just media using sensationalism to push a narrative and drive advertising revenue. The data has been available on fire and flooding trends for some time and does not support the alarmists you have aligned with. Stepping away from that consider the push by the some NGOs to blame Daisy the cow for warming, well, here is an interesting exposée, which debunks claims that we should stop eating meat to save the planet. It is worth sticking with for the full 23 minutes. The simple narrative pushed in the media turns out to be a dangerous misrepresentation of facts. While I do have questions about some of the claims in the presentation you all should know enough by now that everytime someone comes and says "the science says", you are wise to question what they are up to.


    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    That's just media using sensationalism to push a narrative and drive advertising revenue. The data has been available on fire and flooding trends for some time and does not support the alarmists you have aligned with.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Danno is correct if he is talking about the UK where this has been established. Germany has 3 or 4 major river basins running through it (Oder, Elbe, Danube and Rhine) and seasonal flooding has always been an issue affecting different areas depending on the time of year and certain weather patterns notably the Vb weather pattern (conditions whereby an extensive field of precipitation is created due to a low-pressure area stretching from Poland to Northern Italy and the field is continuously regenerated over a long period due to colliding air masses of different temperatures.)

    In the case of the region in Germany in question there have been notable changes in river engineering over the past two hundred years which led to increased population density in former flood plains and agriculture development that has changed agricultural land use patterns meaning upstream wetland areas have better drainage and will evacuate the water more quickly. See Flood magnification on the River Rhine. (2006)

    Suffice to say when all you have is a hammer everything is a nail. The reasons for the effects of the flooding are complex and varied, don't fall for climate narcissism letting your ego drive your response, go look for the data and see if the trends support your hypothesis.



    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande



    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    that is not a simple case of “seasonal flooding “


    Untitled Image




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,716 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    NASA_Elbe_flood_2002_before_after.jpg

    Elbe 2002 flooding



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    This photo is taken in Blessem in Germany and you don't have to settle for a cropped photo.

    Interesting observation that lines up with Dannos point earlier that region is one of the the most paved over in Germany.

    Another factor to consider is the world population has grown from ~2 billion at the start of the twentieth century to ~7 billion yet the most disastrous floods over the last 1000 years are not attributable to climate narcissism the number of deaths to flooding is down. The flood warnings were in place so it is rather surprising to see the death toll and very easy to for politicians to say climate change to deflect from any blame especially in an election year.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Give it a rest. Lack of dredging and urbanisation didn't cause 2 months of rainfall to fall in a single day in an area that has never experienced rainfall of that intensity since records began

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    You have just posted a link to a youtube video that even you do not believe is honest or accurate. Why would you waste people's time?

    I suppose this 'pick and choose' which facts to believe is a part of why you and other can see villiages roads bridge, houses and lives getting washed away across 3 countries in Europe and think this is just 'media sensationalism'

    I mean, f this isn't worth reporting, what is the point of having a news media?

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Does the sheer magnitude of the rainfall that fell during those storms factor anywhere in your handwaving/eh I mean 'analysis'

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Building in floodplains does not really help matters when you get the inevitable hundred year flood.



    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The reason for the high death toll is because the rain fell so fast that people were taken by surprise.

    ------------------------quote: To describe the events of recent days as a 100-year flood would be an understatement, said Uwe Kirsche, a spokesman for the German Weather Service, calling it a flood the likes of which had not been seen in perhaps a millennium.

    “With these small rivers, they have never experienced anything like that,” Mr. Kirsche said. “Nobody could prepare because no one expected something like this.”

    On Tuesday Felix Dietsch, a meteorologist for the German Weather Service, went on YouTube to warn that some areas of southwest Germany could receive previously unimaginable volumes of rain. Up to 70 liters, or more than 18 gallons, of water could pour down on an area of one square meter within a few hours, he warned.

    https://www.indiarightnownews.com/german-floods-raise-the-bar-on-extreme-weather-events/

    ---------------------------

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    This flood was described by the German weather service as a thousand year flood.

    If it was just a hundred year event, the infrastructure would most likely have been able to cope

    Climate change will make this 1 in a thousand year event much more common. If we don't keep warming to below 2c, these kinds of events will be normal weather and vast parts of currently habitable land will need to be abandoned

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Posts: 5,079 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    following this train of thought - not all of the heat is from climate change. Some of the estimated change in temperature over the last 100 years is natural and some is estimated to be human and the overwhelming majority of energy in the atmosphere would have been there regardless of both.


    So just how much extra rain did climate change cause? It most certainly didnt cause the whole lot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    It's called weather.

    Really getting sick and tired of you incapable of thinking alarmists seizing on every out of the ordinary weather event and calling it climate. You literally have no clue what you are talking about. If warmer air holds more water, how is it that much of western Europe, including most of Germany, we're much below average temps around the time those storms began?

    1.png (694×520) (ibb.co)


    "Scientists will need more time to assess the extent to which human emissions made this storm more likely, but the record downpour is in keeping with broader global trends". (from the Guardian, can't be arsed posting the link)

    This is an interesting comment. Scientists need more time to 'assess the extent', yet their minds are already made up?

    'More time' = more money.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,546 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    you're completely right. Almost all of the heat and energy in the biosphere is not because of climate change. It's only a very small part that is caused by humans.

    The problem is, that the climate was in equilibrium based on a CO2 concentration of 280ppm. We're now at a level of over 410ppm

    All of the natural variability for the past few thousand years was based on this level of energy balance. Turning up the CO2 concentration changes the amount of radiative forcing and breaks the equilibrium, so a new balance needs to emerge. That new balance has consequences

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Same continent, late spring/early summer 1970, when the global climate was in a particularly cool state:

    Romanian Floods – 1970 – Devastating Disasters

    Over 200 people died.

    I hold no respect for those that seek to capitalise (literally) from the deaths of those people in the US earlier this summer and Germany this time around.

    New Moon



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