Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

The number may show as 90% because of various issues, for instance a friend of mine was vaccinated in NI as carer to his elderly parents and a work colleague who is a US citizen got vaccinated there when she had to travel as her mother died.

"foreign nationals" are a mixed bunch, many will want a vaccine as you will need it go on a plane and many young people will be influenced by this also.

Nonsense.

David Higgins on Twitter registered for his vaccine this morning and got the text 12 hours later. That's savage going.

The company itself has said that but hasn't released any data yet. From comparisons with previous datasets and trials, we know that the mRNA vaccines generally grant greater protection over AZ and J&J.

This is not to say the J&J vaccine is useless or should be avoided, but comparative statements about efficacy are fair game.

In terms of how you weight a few weeks wait with no protection against that - I'm not sure, but there are efficacy differences here.

Let me try to explain again as you're not getting it.

Not everyone who goes for a first dose comes back for a second. Maybe 95% do but for whatever reason some don't

That is why there is a difference between first and second doses in cohorts that were completed months ago.

There simply aren't nursing home residents who got a first dose in January anxiously awaiting their second appointment. And for you to add them to those who are due a second dose is disingenuous and ridiculous.

Cohorts 1,2,3,4 and 5 are now effectively completed although there will be a small amount of stragglers

The difference between Cohort 7 and 9 first and second doses is 334,792.

First doses given so far in july are approx 200,000.

So maximum number of second doses due in July is 135,000. Even if every single person came back for a second dose.

The number of those left in the 18-34 cohort who would take a nRNA if offered is 300,000 maximum.

There are 457,000 mRNA vaccines in storage according to the HSE ( 393,277 Pfizer and 63729 Moderna)

So we have more than enough vaccines in storage to vaccinate everyone that wants a vaccine if we had the capacity to deliver them.

We don't which is why it will take weeks more.

These are official HSE figures. They are not figures I pulled out of a hat. If you want to argue against me use the official figures to do so as I have done.

And accept the establishment media narrative of the 1million romanian vaccines and supply constraints is a big con and you've been fooled.

I have an instance of someone vaccinated early on in the rollout, that don't show up as vaccinated on the HSE end (they could have re-registered for a 3rd vaccination and the system wouldn't have known). Has there been many incidents like this? I would hope it's quite rare.

An utterly contemptible reply. You throw out childish schoolyard insults but there is no attempt whatsoever to defend your position with any logic.

Where are you getting the figure of only 300k left who'd take an mrna vaccine?

They are talking shite as usual and making up figures. Pure wind up job.

Given we've given 5 million done, there approx 4million 16+ in ireland at mainly 2 doses(a few j and j by 1 shot) so 7.5\8 million max. even with a big uptake its prob 7 million doses total all considered. even conservative 250k doses per week(plus a few in the freezer :-), mid september supply meets demand - probably start secondary schools then.

Let's simplify....

~3.8 million adults (I know 16+ / 18+ is a difference)

100k J&J done (100k fully vaxxed)

AZ for the most part done.... say 1.2 mil (600k fully vaxed)

3.7mil mRNA given out..... that's at most 1850k fully vaccinated

Gives a total of 2.5mil fully vaccinated out of 3.8mil.

Assuming 80% uptake = 540k needing 2 doses..... 1.08mil jabs.

3x more than 300k as you alluded to!

Assuming a 90% uptake.... that's 1.84mil doses needed.... 6x your estimate.

Your calculations are off.

Essentially everybody over 35 has received a first dose by now. There are 332,000 second doses left for over 35s. 200,000 of these in August

There are 1.000.000 in the 18-34 cohort. These are the only ones that are left to be offered a vaccine.

My contention is that with 20% vaccine hesitancy, 290,000 already done through other cohorts and GPs with mRNA and 200,000 Janssen when completed the number remaining is at most 300,000

HSE is now releasing daily data on total number of vaccines administered. This can be cross checked against data from the ECDC in relation to vaccine deliveries to Ireland.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/vaccines/

So you took those figures on the page and that's what you're basing your figures on...

Have a look at the source data.... Belgium & Iceland have administered more vaccines then they got delivered.

It's not 100% accurate... or there's a delay with it. We also do not know when the deliveries arrive in Ireland and when the ECDC page gets updated.

Show me your workings:

3.8mil adults in Ireland... assuming 20%/10% hesitancy - 3.42 needing vaccination

100k J&J have been administered.....

1.2mil AZ have been administered.....

3.8mil mRNA have been administered....

How many more people need to be vaccinated?

*Administered figures as per HSE Vaccine Dashboard

I never said over 1 million over 35's were waiting for vaccines....

Again....

3.8mil adults in Ireland... assuming 10% hesitancy - 3.42mil needing vaccination

100k J&J have been administered..... 100k fully vaccinated

1.2mil AZ have been administered..... 600k fully vaccinated

3.8mil mRNA have been administered.... 1.9mil fully vaccinated

How many more people need to be vaccinated? 2.6mil fully vaccinated.... take that from 3.42mil.... gives 820k people or 1.64mil doses of mRNA

*Administered figures as per HSE Vaccine Dashboard

Let me help you fill the answers in bold