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Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,952 ✭✭✭duffman13


    3.8 million


    Be optimistic and take out 250k for Janssen (think it's less but we'll take that)


    3.55million is 7.1 million plus 250k of Janssen is 7.35 million doses of vaccine required of which we've delivered just over 5 million.


    That leaves over 2.3 million left to be done. Robin is saying 20% hesitant (I'd be very surprised if it's this high) if it is that's 700k people of 1.4 million doses. So 900k vaccines left to deliver to those that want it.


    Yeah I'd say hesitancy is likely to be in the 10% ballpark tbh so 900k is way too low. But up to 2.3 million doses needed to fully vaccinate all remaining adults is the key figure. Not 400k or anything like it



  • Registered Users Posts: 484 ✭✭robinbird


    Once again bringing in whole population figures and using the over 35s in your calculations is being mischievous. These people have already been offered vaccines.

    The only cohort left to be offered a vaccine is the 18-34s. The only number that matters is the number of people in this cohort.

    That is one million. 250,000 already done through GPs , Cohort 2,4 and 7. 200,000 will get Janssen



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,845 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I'm actually including the 10% or 20% hesitancy figure on the entire adult population... which you know is worst case scenario, especially when we have have massive uptake in the 70+ groups. You're trying some mathematical gymnastics to work out the 18-35 group which has been done and subtract those who don't want it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 484 ✭✭robinbird



    We can check this post in a month and see who's right.

    We are currently at 2,706,000 first doses and 97,000 Janssen administered.

    Once we get to 3,000,000 first doses and 250,000 Janssen we will be finished.

    Then time to move on to the children.



  • Registered Users Posts: 279 ✭✭ShayNanigan


    Sick as a dog... started to feel rotten about 24 hours after 2nd Pfizer jab. Fever, the arm I got the jab feels terrible, aches and pain like I have the flu. Oh well. Better sleep it off.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,845 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So you're saying we're going to get to (based on 3.8mil adult population) 85% take up rate (3.25mil fully vaccinated)

    Fair enough.

    That's made up of:

    250k J&J

    1.3mil AZ (assuming the 18+ take up the 100k available in July)

    Leaving 2.35mil people vaccined with an mRNA vaccine = 4.7mil doses.

    of which we've administered 3.76mil doses.... leaving 940k doses to give.... 3x more than your initial estimate?



  • Registered Users Posts: 484 ✭✭robinbird


    Eh. No. 3 million with mRNA / AZ. Not 3.65m as you say

    And 250k Janssen

    300k first doses left to give. Not 940k



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,845 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I never said first doses, I said 940k doses. Why are you talking in first doses?..... they need a second dose to be fully vaccinated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 484 ✭✭robinbird


    Read back the posts. My estimate was always 300k first dose mRNA left to give and there are 350 second mRNA doses left. That leaves 950k doses.

    That was always my estimate. I never said any different.

    300k first doses and 150k second doses in July and 450k second doses in August


    Your estimate (in bold) if you want to read back is 1.64 million more mRNA doses.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,845 ✭✭✭Wolf359f



    Cohort 7: 248,254 - 201,420 = 46,834

    Cohort 9: 980,266 - 585,063 = 395,063

    That's 441k, excluding any Cohort 3.

    How did you get 334k?


    Enough of our stockpile to finish it tomorrow.... maybe, but do you really want to be giving a second jab to someone a day after they got their first jab?

    Would you not at least wait a few weeks?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,916 ✭✭✭✭iguana


    Had my second Pfizer yesterday. The pain in my arm is unreal, worse than I remember it the first time. But other than that I feel completely fine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Ah jaysus this argument is going round and round 🤣



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    There are no concrete studies that I can find from J&J. But efficacy seems to be about 66%. Which imo isn't mad high considering that we will be faced with new variants anytime soon.

    I'm trying to keep opinions to myself about it, yes, he can read up on it, but as a parent you worry. Young adults tend to take information from the surface.

    He's not a lad who has gangs of friends, no mad parties and hasn't been an arse about restrictions over the last year. A piece of me hoping he'll wait for Pfizer, but how long a wait, I don't know.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    J&J is highly effective against serious illness and death, which is more important than the headline efficacy rates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,444 ✭✭✭VG31


    I would happily take J&J if offered. I see it as a way to reduce my chances of getting a bad dose of covid from low to practically zero. So what if I "get" covid then. I'd most likely be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. The chances are I mightn't even know about it.

    A vaccine hasn't failed if you test positive. That's not the primary aim.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,952 ✭✭✭duffman13



    J&J is a good vaccine with good efficacy against symptomatic disease and also excellent against severe illness and hospitalisation. I'd happily recommend it to someone who was in general good health and looking for a convenient vaccine id go for it. It also offers an excellent t cell response which may prove more beneficial long term.


    J&J is no more/less likely at this stage to be more or less effective against a new variants than the mRNA vaccines.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    J&J appears to be even better with the delta variant than other variants. And protection will last for a long time, especially with our lovely T-cells.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,553 ✭✭✭murphyebass


    When are they going to vaccinate all the children going to camps etc..

    The school bubbles were blown out of the water once the summer holidays happened. Mixing of random kids all over the place.

    Surely the pharmacy ones should be opened to kids.

    I have three of them and would love them to get it so I could send them to camps. Reluctant right now with the spread increasing!

    Ive also only had the one Pfizer one, another due in about two weeks time thankfully.

    It feels like we’re taking the foot of the gas slightly early in terms of opening up just for political gain, maybe not as bad as the UK but not far off.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Thanks for your responses.

    I suppose I'm looking ahead long term, when it looks like we're only using mRNA as boosters. That's what I gather anyway. I just don't want for him to be compromised with having to make another decision as regards to mixing vaccines in the future.

    He also has this niggling in his head about I&j/az being safe, not safe, safe again for his age group, which no doubt, will slow down eagerness to take up any vaccine in the younger cohort.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    They don't use Pfizer in the pharmacies due to the delivery and storage it needs.

    The EMA have ok'd it as a vaccine in the 12 to 15 cohort, we haven't approved it here in Ireland yet. Although Pfizer employee's children have received it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,952 ✭✭✭duffman13


    This is incorrect, 350 pharmacies are currently administering Pfizer and storage conditions are no longer an issue



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    I stand corrected. They are administering it at the same rate as the HSE portal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,731 ✭✭✭Economics101


    Once again, why does EMA approval for a vaccine for a younger age-cohort have to be followed by such long drawn-out delays for NIAC, the HSE, NPHET and the Cabinet (!!!) all to give their approval? What do these bodies know about the Medical aspects that the EMA doesn't know? If the problem is logistical then this should be a matter for the HSE to sort out.

    I'm not saying that NIAC etc are irrelevant, but surely the whole process should not take up so much time. I wonder how many committees of 38 or so (like NPHET) are involved in this 4-ring circus?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,672 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    J&J numbers added in, +52.5k

    COVID-19 Vaccines 🇮🇪

    (Friday / 16-07-21)


    ‣ At least one dose: 2,885,807 (+82,316)

    ‣ Fully vaccinated: 2,370,099 (+80,802)

    ‣ Total: 5,106,392 (+110,673)


    ‣ 16+ with at least one dose: ~73.8%

    ‣ 16+ fully vaccinated: ~60.6%

    https://twitter.com/covid19dataie/status/1416352485053194240?s=21



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    That’s brilliant. J&J is the game changer! If we can keep pumping that into the younger cohorts then we’re in an even better place!

    Does anyone know the possible percentage of population with anti bodies without vaccination?

    the fact they mentioned that the rise in cases amongst 16-34 is exceptional, dare I say it herd immunity isn’t that far away…

    Post edited by Cork2021 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,205 ✭✭✭Lucas Hood


    My 29 year old gf is pregnant 16 weeks, they asked her if she wanted a vaccine at 12 week check in Holles st. Told they would be registered with hse for one but haven't heard anything yet.

    Is there any issue with her registering herself seen as it's open for her age now ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,553 ✭✭✭murphyebass


    My kids are young.

    2, 6 and 8. Imo they should be done in the pharmacies asap with whatever vaccine is available. Preferably the J&J one as it’s one and done.

    As I say with camps it makes sense to get the kids done now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,485 ✭✭✭harr


    Thank god the uptake for the younger population seems to be high enough and a lot wanting to get the vaccine, but slightly concerned that it seems to be a growing number who are now saying what’s the point in getting it if you can catch covid anyway.

    Spoken to a few 20 year who are in the mindset they would rather get immunity by catching it especially if they don’t get very ill form it .

    No point explaining to them about protecting others who might not as healthy as they are , or that a certain number of younger people will end up in hospital or have longer covid symptoms.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    But there's no vaccine approved by EMA for under 12s as far as I'm aware.



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