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General British politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I don't think it's that complicated. Javid tested positive by LFT on Friday, it was confirmed by pcr the following day. The health secretary testing positive even though double jabbed was always going to be a big story regardless of how the news was relayed. A few people were idly posting on twittrr that night and following morning about pm being a close contact. Media picked up on it and made calls to downing st, guff about pilot scheme released, mini storm erupted and quick uey initiated. Nothing much to do with Javid ultimately, but Johnson and Sunak trying to weasel out of self isolation. I bet Sunak is absolutely raging at having to do it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Agree with most of that but Javid clearly says on the video he took the lateral flow test on Saturday morning and then released the video shortly afterwards (unless he is lying about when he even took the test). Whatever the intention behind the video, it seems to have gone a bit pear shaped. We can assume Johnson being attacked by all sides yesterday and even by the English right wing press can not have been part of any Tory media spin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I think it's just pure hubris rather than any deep plan. I think they actually believe doing it on video like that will lead to an avalanche of sympathy and "R U allrite hun" feelings from the public



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I honestly don't have any great opinion on the Javid video. Seems he might have waited until the pcr test was confirmed before making it, that's probably fair.

    But I don't see that as very relevant to what transpired with the pm and Sunak the next morning. That bit is really simple. Guy tests positive, close contacts get pinged, they all isolate. Couldn't be simpler. Except they tried to bring a complication into it, got called out and forced into another humiliating u turn. That really is the long and short of it from what I saw anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    That might well be a good explanation. The usual Tory incompetence and things not going quite to plan.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It's been a very bad weekend for Johnson anyway. Criticism coming from all quarters, 'Freedom Day' being a damp squib and lots of bad press (not that this will have any effect on Tory voters it seems).



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Yeah, that is the case. It does seem like as long as they can keep going without any significant policies, just keep stirring the culture wars pot, and they'll be ok. Weak opposition helps, it has to be said.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Of course, the fact the tories are being humiliated with monotonous regularity and still maintaining, even increasing, their poll lead has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of the opposition. How silly of me to even suggest such an outlandish thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    How could Starmer stop anything that has happened since Covid or how does anything Johnson has done since lockdown. How can a "weak" opposition be blamed for the choices being made



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I was responding to a post about the tory electorate and why they keep voting tories and I simply suggested, well, weak opposition helps. IMVHO, of course. Where you got the notion i was holding the leader of the opposition personally responsible for the decisions of the government, I've no idea, quite frankly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Well I assumed that you saying the opposition was weak meant you though the opposition was weak. Sorry if I misunderstood.

    Some of the Tory electorate will vote for them no matter what but we have seen a drop off recently and we have yet to see a big vote not dominated by "get brexit done" so we can't truely judge right now how Labour are doing but the regional parties certainly have their tails up



  • Registered Users Posts: 933 ✭✭✭jamule


    the tories have 80 seat majority and the main oppoistion are piss poor, labour have gone from a clueless clown to one that can't find any message to gain traction. The only opposition of any consequence are the snp.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Yes, me saying the opposition was weak means I think the opposition is weak. Fair assumption there anyway.

    I wouldn't say Amersham was much of a brexit vote and while labour weren't in the running, you don't expect them to lose their deposit either, for all the guff about "electoral alliances." The local elections have resoundingly carried grim tidings too. But then, we're supposedly about to see the real Keir emerge any day now. Gloves will be off and the tories will be running scared.

    Let's wait and see. These definitely are politically uncertain times, even more so than early 90s, so anything is possible. I do think the tories will lose ground but no guarantees labour will be the ones to profit most from it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,017 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    By clueless clown I assume you mean the man who had May running to the DUP of all people. Not exactly a win by Labour standards but in Brexitian it wasn't that bad and he tapped into voters better than given credit for. He is gone though so it's not him I was talking about All I said was Labour are untested in a major election currently but more importantly there is more to the opposition than them and the Tories are handing Scotland and NI to the opposition on a silver platter



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    BBC News at 10 leading with an interview with Dominic Cummings by Laura K :


    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1417227982247272452



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Amazing. How did she manage to land that interview? Are the bbc even the slightest bit embarrassed about this or do they imagine the whole nation will be agog to hear Laura chinwag with her "very special source"?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1 Cliff Edge


    You regular reminder that social media is not real life.

    In the latest opinion poll this week the Tories increased their lead over Labour to 13 points.This was the 120th opinion poll in succession that has put the Tories well ahead of Labour.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1417058300961689600

    Boris remains box office.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    He's box office for an ever decreasing circle of oul wans, oul fellas and bigots.

    The longer the Tories stay in power, the more incredible the final explosion will be.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Oul wans and oul fellas who he was quite happy to see die, according to Dominic Cummings.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’

    • Lord Heseltine, 2017

    Leave vote would not win now because of demographics. Though the pensioners may not get their 8% as promised by the triple lock next year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,252 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    Many of whom he'd happily see die. It doesn't compute. Surely a stupid hairdo and a "we'll muddle on through it" attitude to governance aren't enough, right? Why has this latest reveal not destroyed him?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Johnson is a callous individual who cares about nobody only himself so nothing surprising about anything he comes out with. But the tories will always look after their own, as today's news about their plan to address social care shows.

    They are going to raise the £10-12bn needed to cover it with a 1% increase in national insurance contributions. This means it will be younger, lower paid workers who will pay most. Nobody over 66 pays NI and earnings over £50k are only levied at 2%. Nearly 70% of over 65s voted tory in 2019 and they are 20% of the population and rising.

    And they get to face the electorate bleating on about no income tax rises. As i said, the tories always look after their own.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,724 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I had a small look at the PDF of the data itself, and the generational thing is interesting: ranking only Likely Voters - and unless I'm grossly misreadhing the tables - there's quite the drop off of Conservative support with anyone under 50; a Cliff Edge, if you will 😉 Same too with Brexit, with a big disparity of support between those under and over 50. It's lopsided enough that the headline item doesn't really reflect the details here. Overall support might have increased, but it's not uniform support by any reasonable metric. The gap is lopsided; with younger demographics pushing back against Brexit & Tories, the older apparently entrenched through (maybe) Sunk Cost Bias? Now, famously, older people are more likely to vote so whether that'd manifest in something transformative at the polls is another matter - but "the UK loves the Tories, nothing to see here" doesn't quite wash either. As always, the devil is in the details.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    That's all quite true. In 2017, for example, the pollsters all pretty much failed to call it by drastically missing the significance of the youth vote. The latest more sophisticated polling models are supposedly less prone to such gaps, but it can only ever remain an inexact science.

    That said, i look at the political landscape in the uk at present and wonder what exactly is in it for younger voters, under 40ish let's say. Labour have made it patently clear it's mostly about the red wall for them, whatever it takes and everything else seems an afterthought right now. There's the greens, lib dems and various small parties and indos, but not exactly a richly gleaming choice of options, you'd have to say.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,724 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Well quite. That's the big question: the data clearly points towards a huge slice of the electorate dissatisfied with a Tory government, enough even for a different government, but in FPTP where's the alternative strong enough to sway them? So long as those harder older groups vote Tory enough, they'll act as kingmakers. All they have to keep faith in is that Everyone Else remains ideologically fragmented enough to ensure power; with Labour kinda all over the place and the rest eternally playing catch-up, it's probably how things will shake out for now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Both main parties face a similar political dilemma. In pitching for one particular bank of the electorate - even within their own target zones on right or left - they inevitably risk alienating another set, kind of a zero sum game, just the tories tend to do it better and they have a clearer run on the right than Labour have on the other side.

    So various groups such as young people, muslims and other minorities, end up feeling marginalised and taken for granted. The "they have nowhere else to go" principle. Well, they can always just decide to stay at home on polling day for a start!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭serfboard


    "So various groups such as young people, muslims and other minorities, end up feeling marginalised and taken for granted. The "they have nowhere else to go" principle. Well, they can always just decide to stay at home on polling day for a start!"

    I've posted an article here several times about the new Conservative strategy both in the US and the UK - prevent the opposition's electorate from voting (voter suppression) or convince them to stay at home. An example of the latter is spreading stories that the leader of the opposition is an anti-semite, trying to make the younger woke/culturally aware electorate disillusioned with their leader, enough to convince them not to bother voting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,647 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Or rather then staying at home they can be listened to and not feel marginalized. Just a thought. I love how people want more people to go out and vote but only if it is for there side



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Right, good thought that. The parties can actually address them, their worries and concerns and convince them they are not being taken for granted. Pretty much the point i was making, I would day!



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