2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

I like the new layout but it is near impossible to navigate and use. But it is this thread I can't take anymore. The unbearable stupidity of some on here is truly stomach churning. Climate 'experts' whom, if you asked them the name of the most basic form of cloud, would not be able to tell you without looking it up themselves.

Stamping 'climate change' on an event when you didn't even know of or consider the weather pattern / temp profile over the affected region to me is the real mark of immaturity.

Reading Akrasia comments is like reading the apocalypse of John. The level of reasoning behind blaming climate change for weather events is akin to fundamentalist religious leaders blaming immorality for natural disasters. Recently a low pressure moved up from the Mediterranean sea and stalled between 2 high pressures dumping a lot of water in one region destroying lives and property, this has a 1% chance of happening in any one year (i.e. the statistical one hundred year flood). Locally and on a far smaller scale similar flooding happened in West Limerick back in 2008 when a front stalled in the area.

Akrasia has claimed that this will become more likely in future but has failed to quantify the % change in risk or explain the mechanism of why this will change beyond the "one hundred year flood", therefore the claim cannot be tested and is invalid. These charlatans have been claiming the polar ice would be melted long ago, the polar bears would suffer, the coral reefs would be gone and that coastal flooding would have major cities underwater, but have never produced evidence to support their claims and have to resort to computer modelling and artists impressions of their vision of hell due to lack of evidence to support their claims. They can't quantify how often to expect Vb cyclones to affect the regions from now on and how this will deviate from the statistical mean.

A look for data would reveal there have been significant floods in the region in 1804 and 1910, by historical standards this is not an unexpected event though the experience of most people is outside living memory. What has changed in the meantime has been land use, drainage and population growth and since this landscape is dramatically shaped by human activity, local authorities with responsibility for infrastructure engineering need to review their plans to account for the change in the topography, population and land use and how to cope with 100 year flood events and what level of risk is acceptable versus the cost of mitigation.

7% more moisture capacity in the air per degree Celsius temperature rise.

https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Clausius-clapeyron_equation

You call this a 100 year event. Here's what the german weather service said

To describe the events of recent days as a 100-year flood would be an understatement, said Uwe Kirsche, a spokesman for the German Weather Service. “With these small rivers, they have never experienced anything like that,” Mr. Kirsche said. “Nobody could prepare, because no one expected something like this.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/16/world/europe-flooding-germany

You ask about the magnitude of the increase in extreme weather events.

The study below indicates that the kind of event that happened last week in Germany, where a low pressure system got caught in a ridging event will be 14 times more likely in Europe by the end of the century

You're living on a different planet if you think the loss of coral reefs and polar ice is not happening as predicted.

instead of getting you 'predictions' from youtube videos and blogs, you should look at the science

Here are the predictions of when the first ice free summers will happen from the main models (under business as usual scenarios)

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'The predicted year of disappearance of September sea ice under high-emissions scenarios is 2086 for HadCM3 (CMIP3/5), 2048 for HadGEM2-ES (CMIP5), and 2035 for HadGEM3 (CMIP6) (Fig. 4). More broadly, multi-model CMIP3-6 mean predictions (and ranges) for a summer sea ice-free Arctic are: CMIP3 2062 (2040-2086), CMIP5 2048 (2020-2081), and CMIP6 2046 (2029-2066) (Fig. 4 and Suppl.Table 3). We note that the latest year of sea ice disappearance for CMIP6 models is 2066 and that 50% of the models predict sea ice-free conditions between ∼ 2030-2040. http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/91701/1/18887_2_merged_1594159790.pdf

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A recent study says the first ice free summer may be as soon as 2035 based on improved models HadGEM3 that plugged in more accurate historical data from the last interglacial period

these sort of cloud burst happen every few years across europe ?

2018 campsites washed away 1600 evacuated.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45134715.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjjudjHlO_xAhX1QkEAHdy0D_kQFjABegQIBRAC&usg=AOvVaw3AxcXx7f24ZyEUaw6-1nNH&ampcf=1

More attribution science, don't limit yourself to that have a look back in time in history where we get fragments of the flooding,drought and famines.

Weather events have been derived from records compiled by Matthew Paris, a monk in St Albans, near London. It has floods, droughts & wind. Extreme heat and extreme cold. This is just a two decade snippet to illustrate that lots of weather happened and sufficient have survived for us to form a good idea of the climate of the time.

In Germany, the Ahr river floods every century in the same manner (1804, 1910), why then is this latest disaster attributed to catastrophic anthropogenic climate change?

Actually the computer says no. Look at the Summer.

Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

Television news and documentaries frequently report normal weather as "extreme weather," implying it is abnormal and caused by human activity.

This latest trend by activists to document normal fluctuations in weather is specifically to generate hyperbole and confuse the public at large and it is counter-productive "turning off the public with “constant alarm which cannot be sustained.”

They had weather events in the dark ages as well, attendant with very serious consequences that led to death by famine, drowning, heat stroke and hypothermia, yet somehow people survived all that, the world did not end, our ancestors adapted to their living conditions. We have it real good in 21st century Ireland compared with some of the conditions our ancestors endured.

The effects of flooding have nothing to do with climate and are man made including

1. Populations in and adjacent to flood-prone areas, especially in coastal areas, continue to increase, putting more property and greater numbers of people at risk,
2. Flood-moderating wetlands continue to be destroyed,
3. Little has been done to control or contain increased run off from upstream development (e.g. run off caused by paving over land),
4. Many undeveloped areas have not yet been mapped (mapping has been concentrated in already-developed areas), and people are moving into such areas without adequate information concerning risk,
5. Many dams and levees are beginning to deteriorate with age, leaving property owners with a false sense of security about how well they are protected,
6. Some policies (e.g., provision of subsidies for building roads and bridges) tend to encourage development in flood plains.

At a minimum, when people blame climate change for damaging flood events, they direct attention away from the fact that decision makers already have the means at their disposal to significantly address the documented flood problems. Germans did actually learn lessons from the 2002 Elbe flooding event that they applied successfully in 2013. It was rather surprising to observe the loss of life in the latest instance, but, I guess no one had experience in living memory of previous floods in the area.

You do realize that looking back at historical weather events and comparing them with. Modern weather events is pretty much exactly what attribution scientists do, except they do it using validated methodology rather than just lists of things that happened in the past

It was cooler than average... much cooler in fact.

Zoom in on Dublin from that link you provided again. Why did Friederike Otto leave out the record cold in February/March 2018? Can you explain the methodology that cherry picks data points like that? That looks like confirmation bias to me.

This study, from almost 10 years ago did not produce reliable predictions for the future, they explicitly declared it in the paper, it was based on a very small sample size and more study was required.Do you have any reference to a follow up study that used data less than 11 years old?

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Especially at long return periods, the individual paired GCM and RCM simulations show systematic differences. This could indicate that the RCMs have an influence on the signal of their driving GCMs, but the small number of simulations explored here permits neither a firm conclusion on the origin, nor robustness of this difference. Further research with larger ensembles and systematic exploration of potential causes is needed. 

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