If Herd Immunity Is Not Reached In Ireland

wrong thread..still getting lost with no lay out.

It's at 87.6% of adults who have had their first dose, not 87.6% of the population. It's 68.2% of the total population who have had one dose, and 53.18% who are fully vaccinated.

Just under 46% fully vaccinated, and a little over 62% with at least one dose.

We will get to herd immunity at some stage if the variants don’t morph too much

2,277,860 second doses + 160,609 J&J

2,438,469 fully vaccinated out of a population of 4,982,907 = 48.9%

2,791,631 with Dose 1 + 160,609 J&J

2,952,240 with at least a single jab = 59.2%

Or am I missing something glaring obvious?

Professor of Virology from UCC was on the radio last week. He said standard multiplier for persons infected is 3 to 5 times actual detected cases. You need to add these to the vaccinated cohort but then take away those who were mosyt likely vaccinated & infected.

So if 250k have trested positive then the real figure is 1 million. Out of those 1 million 55% were also vaccinated so you add 450k to the fully vaccinated figure towards herd immuinity.

Hope that makes some form of sense. Essentially this is what Boris is doing. Instead of forcing the young to get vaccinated he is allowing it to rip through them to achieve herd immuinity. Apparently far cheaper than paying for vaccines & the cost of administration.

If it was not going to be a problem they wouldnt be trying to win the race to adjust vaccines against COVID, the know it is coming, they are hoping that they win the race. Germans this morning already talking about a third shot being needed by October this year by some people. Additionally, what people have forgotten is, what will happen when we all start living without masks ... the flu etc. will have a field day as our immune systems will not be as fit as without a mask. How many people do you know who had a bad flu in the last 18 months?

Dont get me wrong, I am greatful for the vaccine, also encourage people to get it, however I dont think it is as simple as people think. The only thing we can hope for is that the more people who are vaccinated the less people will be hospitalised. However, the problem with vaccines are that people can still contract the virus and pass it on, meaning people have a false sense of security.

Israel is already doing booster shots to those most at risk.

If people keep passing it, it will mutate once again. Mutations will at some point become vaccine immune. The virus will adapt to ensure it survives, so every time it is passed on is a further risk.

Let's make sure that we've got it all right, shall we?

What's your point? You said Israel was one of 2 countries vaccinating kids. I said there's at least 3 countries, which is correct.

Israel has become a bad example, they have relatively high vaccine coverage but a hardcore group of people who refuse to take the vaccine.

In saying that most informed commentators seem to now be saying herd immunity is no longer possible with Delta, the percentages required are just too high - particularly if the virus can infect vaccinated people (note the vaccine still provides excellent protection against disease).

The best-case scenario now is that enough people get vaccinated that we can reduce this to a measles-like type of virus, one which is circulating at a very low level and causes only the occasional flare-up. If enough people don't get vaccinated, we'll have a much higher prevalence. In order to reduce the risk to the very elderly and immune compromised younger people it's our social duty in my opinion to get vaccinated and do our bit.

It very much is a theory with regards to covid.

There is a lot of variation in diseases which makes them susceptible or not to herd immunity.

Covid is going to be much closer to totally unsusceptible to herd immunity than totally controllable by herd immunity.