Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Leroy42 · 21-07-2021 9:49am

What happens if the UK refuse to implement it, or trigger A16?

Seth Brundle · 21-07-2021 1:19pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640314#Comment_117640314

There are specific reasons for either side to be able to trigger Art 16. The fact that the UK have not fully implemented the protocol is not one of them.

If the UK do not carry out their side of an international agreement, then they can be legally challenged. In addition, every country around the world is watching the UK government sign an agreement and then immediately renege on it. This will not make it easier to sign trade deals around the world.

Seth Brundle · 21-07-2021 1:23pm

I found this article from Brian Feeney in the Irish News on how NI is being left further behind the RoI as while the RoI is receiving EU post-pandemic funding, NI is left waiting on funding from WM. Yet another loss to the region 😒

https://www.irishnews.com/paywall/tsb/irishnews/irishnews/irishnews//opinion/columnists/2021/07/21/news/brian-feeney-north-loses-out-as-south-gets-massive-eu-windfall-2392484/content.html

salonfire · 29-07-2021 7:29pm

Dunno if your sad-face is fully warranted in this case, since the notion of a UI is lukewarm with the North's population. Even with the Brexit fallout I suspect many, including Nationalists, would still hitch their wagon to London. I haven't seen much clamour or noise calling for change in that regard.

weemcd · 30-07-2021 11:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117679934#Comment_117679934

In that case you've not been looking very hard because there has been a massive amount of discussion towards a border poll and UI in the last 12 months or more. Probably the biggest trend after Covid and then Brexit...

Padre_Pio · 30-07-2021 11:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117682159#Comment_117682159

Wiki has gathered opinon poll results on the matter. The result is still a No, but in given 5-10 years the trend could be a strong Yes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_polling

ancapailldorcha · 30-07-2021 12:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117679934#Comment_117679934

This doesn't make sense. Brexit has literally no upside for anyone who is not a billionaire wishing to avoid the EU's tax directive.

As someone who was raised in the Protestant, Unionist tradition, I can no longer finish the sentence "I believe that the Union between Britain and NI should continue because..." The NHS is only going to get worse and if Brexit wasn't going to be so bad for NI, it wouldn't have needed to retain access to the single market for goods.

The DUP have killed Unionism, not just by supporting Brexit (Had they backed remain, it would have made no difference) but by insisting on the harshest possible terms for reasons beyond my reckoning.

blanch152 · 30-07-2021 1:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117682179#Comment_117682179

The key thing to note in those polls is that both the YES and the NO vote are falling in current trends.

The optimistic United Irelander would say that the more people are undecided, the more they can be persuaded, the pessimistic one would say that people may be looking for a third way out in a plague on both sides.

FrancieBrady · 30-07-2021 1:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117682833#Comment_117682833

Or that people are waiting for a plan from those who constitutionally aspire to unity.

Once again NI is going through significant change, perfectly natural that there would be indecision ahead of any proposal. Scottish Referendum saw the exact same. Just over 30% in favour of Independence when the Referendum was called, went to damn near winning the thing after the debate and the publication of the White Paper by the Scottish government. Took many pleas and inducements to win it for Remain. 'Pleas and inducements' that will add to the independence campaign next time out because the Westminster government reneged on them.

blanch152 · 30-07-2021 2:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117682982#Comment_117682982

Problem is, indecision doesn't meet the conditions of the GFA. A border poll has to be likely to pass, not that there is indecision. We are a long long way from even contemplating holding a border poll.

FrancieBrady · 30-07-2021 2:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117683000#Comment_117683000

No, the UK courts found that there are no restrictions on how the SoS decides on a poll.

He/she is under no legal onus to say why they think it might pass.

More clutching at straws here, this has been demonstrated (the legal position) many times before. Your 'long long way' view therefore is only an opinion from someone in favour of partition.

blanch152 · 30-07-2021 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117683044#Comment_117683044

I think you are overstating the meaning of the court case.

The court found that the SoS didn't have to explain why he wasn't holding a border poll, that still leaves the possibility of a judicial review should he decide to hold one. The court case was about trying to force him to set the criteria in advance of a decision.

FrancieBrady · 30-07-2021 2:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117683106#Comment_117683106

Here is what the Court considered:

The issues for determination at first instance were (a) whether the respondent was required to publish a policy governing the discretion to hold a border poll under section 1 and Schedule 1 paragraph 1 of the NIA and (b) whether the respondent was required to publish a policy governing the requirement to hold a border poll under section 1 and Schedule 1 paragraph 2 of the NIA.

The principal finding which rubbishes those who suggest the decision will be based on Opinion Polls. It is, the court found, essentially a 'political' decision. Good luck to anyone trying to waste money on a judicial review in that case.

[80] The assessment involves an evaluative judgment as to a likely outcome. We consider that it is essentially a political judgment. It is assigned to and is to be performed by the respondent, a politician who is to form an assessment as to the political views of others. The political judgment as to the likely outcome of a border poll is not a simple empirical judgment driven solely by opinion poll evidence. It is also not a simple judgment based purely on perceived religion. The judgment depends on what are the prevailing circumstances at any given time. For instance a likely outcome may involve an evaluation as to whether there are other factors which will impact on voting intentions crossing traditional party or perceived religious lines and if so as to their impact. Instances of such factors are changes in social attitudes North and South, relative economic prosperity North and South, the taxation structures North and South, the outcome of Brexit and the nature of future trading relations between both parts of Ireland which in turn depends on any agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

The rest of the judgement is here.

https://www.judiciaryni.uk/sites/judiciary/files/decisions/Raymond%20McCord%E2%80%99s%20Application%20Border%20Poll.pdf

blanch152 · 30-07-2021 2:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117683247#Comment_117683247

And I don't disagree with any of that. Essentially, the court said that the criteria could not be set in advance. However, the court didn't give the SoS carte blanche, and still leaves open the possibility of a judicial review should the SoS unreasonably decide to hold a poll. In that case, he would be required to explain himself in court.

FrancieBrady · 30-07-2021 2:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117683270#Comment_117683270

The court very clearly lays out the criteria and does not allow it to be challenged - the 'political' decision of the SoS based on current events. Which means a BP could be called at any time, in effect.

Fly_away · 01-08-2021 8:54am

Unionism in the North is dying, slowly but surely. As a proportion of population in the North, they're getting smaller and smaller.

They are on the 'wrong' side of virtually all modern social/political topics - abortion, gay marriage, equality, respect of other cultures, climate change, international cooperation (most Unionists supported Brexit and still do, despite it being one of the biggest own goals in political history).

Unless some radical change occurs, they will become less and less relevant over the years and will be whittled down to a point where they'll have hardly any influence on this island.

That will be the moment when we should attempt to trigger the process of reunification. If you do it now or within the next 5 years, they'll have more sway in the formation of the new state and I think that'll be a needless mistake.

It'd be like giving dinosaurs a say in the formation/structure of towns/cities even though you know they'll be extinct (or close to it) in the not too distant future.

And this is happening quite quickly by the way. I can see traditional unionist influence becoming a fraction of what it currently is in the next 10-15 years.

Fly_away · 01-08-2021 8:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/115986910#Comment_115986910

Very possible, but just not now. The traditional/hard right unionists would cause us too much hassle and make it more painful than it needs to be. I have no respect for much of their 'traditions' and have no wish desire to give them prominence in a new state.

Wait until they're smaller, weaker and have less influence/power. It's a process that continues each day..

pixelburp · 28-08-2021 8:50am

If polls can be used as metrics of support for the Protocol, or at least parties supportive or not -, the DUP are floundering. The timing is interesting too, given Donaldson just met the Taoiseach in a capacity this poll suggests he doesn't deserve.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1431500657303949312

Mr.Nice Guy · 28-08-2021 1:36pm

I wonder will they lurch even further to the right to try and claw back the TUV vote.

maestroamado · 29-08-2021 9:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117689708#Comment_117689708

I agree pretty much with all of the above.

However we need to shake up politics here and this be the time to do, We are still doing politics the same as we did 50/60 years, too many TD's/Councillors/Ministers drawing big salaries doing nothing, i remember looking at Agriculture some time ago and we have 3 Ministers in that dept alone. Also i read recently that Senator is a Minister in some dept, its a woman i forget the detail. i thought these jobs had to be elected by the people, i do remember a friend of Leo.

We also need to re-write at least some of the constituation as legal profession causing havoc. It be a great opportunity to sort things out and if done properly we have a great little country.

Fly_away · 29-08-2021 9:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117814828#Comment_117814828

That will be the natural instinct, yes.

Donaldson and a handful of other senior DUP politicians know that lurching to the right is a really bad medium-long term strategy. But they struggle to resist the short term benefits of playing up to and satisfying their base.

Honestly, everyone says the DUP are a mess. That's true to an extent but they have such an obtuse, tone deaf, insular, anti-equality, anti-human rights base. It's extraordinarily difficult to keep them happy whilst also appealing to enough of the centre ground in order to keep them politically relevant.

The DUP's problem is that their base **doesn't understand** that the party needs to gain votes from the centre to retain political power and their favorite word when it comes to compromise is 'no'.

farmerval · 30-08-2021 12:24am

From the poll above 48% are supporting parties that oppose the current brexit deal, 38% support parties that explicitly support the current deal, with Alliance in the middle, do Alliance support the current arrangement? If they do that's 51% supporting the current arrangement.

Reading Susan McKay's book, Northern Protestants, on shifting ground, a couple of things stood out, one how divided Unionists are, even their church alliances between Church of Ireland, Presbyterian and free Presbyterian and independent churches, all are different levels of extremes between real bible bashing and reality of what younger people want in society.

There also seemed to be a huge divide in generations, those who had lived through the troubles and those that had not. The younger generation more concerned about abortion, gay rights etc. The older generation more bitter and "against" anything seen as a concession to the green side.

Another feature was how many community initiatives that interviewees were involved in that were funded by the EU.

FrancieBrady · 30-08-2021 10:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821377#Comment_117821377

Important thing here is to analyse the 'opposition'.

That amount may be opposed but the better question is, how many will accept it and work it, while still being unhappy about it?

The Good Friday agreement made many unhappy but they still worked it.

The on street protests about the NIP have been dismal and badly supported in the main.

Irish History · 24-09-2021 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117679934#Comment_117679934

The polls I've noticed show a huge increase in support for the reunification of Ireland. I generalise, but polls now showing close to a 50-50 split - and that is before a campaign has even begun (think Scotland). That is a huge change from before Brexit. People also want a border poll within 5 years.

Mr.Nice Guy · 06-10-2021 10:00pm

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1445685657410490368

This is the economist who went viral a few years ago for spelling out the problems Brexit would bring to the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avIBfrR0Iog

I'd like to see a citizen's assembly established on how to manage a border poll, and the consequences of a Yes vote.

funkey_monkey · 07-10-2021 6:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117813885#Comment_117813885

So DUP transfers to TUV.

Alliance vote splits based on background to UUP and SDLP.

reubenreuben · 10-10-2021 1:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986008#Comment_117986008

Consequences would be the republic going bust

Mr.Nice Guy · 10-10-2021 2:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118000731#Comment_118000731

This line is often trotted out by those that don't want reunification. Plenty of top economists dispute it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/116605492#Comment_116605492

Mr.Nice Guy · 16-01-2022 7:19pm

A lot of criticism the last day or so about the decision to allow for the return of the dual mandate.

https://twitter.com/NewtonEmerson/status/1482299442145415168?cxt=HHwWgMCyvabfl5IpAAAA

This will allow Jeffrey Donaldson (and perhaps plenty of other Westminster MPs) to keep their seats across the water while they stand for Stormont.

Is this going to save the DUP from what might otherwise have been a very bruising election?

Nody · 16-01-2022 9:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118485676#Comment_118485676

I'd guess they might save a seat or two but I still think they will get a proper kicking in the gonads at the next election; if anything I'd guess it's more Boris interest to keep them around as a 10 voting support block for him that's the real reason here.

Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Comments