The UK response - Part II - read OP

brickster69 · 20-07-2021 4:23pm

Mortality ages

JDD · 20-07-2021 4:28pm

I agree with this. Boris, as abhorrent as he is, might have stumbled onto the right strategy here. If the Delta variant hadn't happened he would most definitely had been on the right track. Even with the Delta variant, I think they'll find that hospitalisations will stabilise before they get anywhere close to the January peak. Perhaps in hindsight "Freedom Day" (barf) would have been better off at the start of August, but he couldn't have predicted the Delta variant and for political reasons he couldn't push it out further. I think he'll squeak though.

When all is said, I do hope that they do squeak through. It'll be better for everyone if they do. That's not to say that I'm not glad they are taking the risk instead of us, but I do applaud the risk. There has to be a way back to normality, and it's really only a country where the government had a clear majority, like the Tories do, that those sort of risks can be taken.

PommieBast · 20-07-2021 4:44pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117638196#Comment_117638196

Having dealt with both the UK and Irish states the real advantage the UK has is its civil service. In the UK things did at least keep ticking over, because they seemed to have some idea that people need to get on with their lives, whereas in Ireland it is complete shutdown.

martingriff · 20-07-2021 4:59pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117638196#Comment_117638196

It will be interesting with the figures coming out (is the Delta variant faster then the 10 day they normally talk about when seeing a change) and how either side will spin it

martingriff · 20-07-2021 8:58pm

Looks like from BBC news at 6 that from September to go to clubs bars or eating will require to be fully vaccinated and there is confusion over there covid app and if you have to isolate if given as a close contact.

MadYaker · 20-07-2021 9:03pm

lots of mixed messaging. They really are great at making it look like they are just making it all up as they go along.

robinph · 20-07-2021 10:13pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117637947#Comment_117637947

What difference would the delaying of opening nightclubs make? The people who would be going to clubs would just be going to other illegally organised events instead so you'd still end up with the same rise in cases amongst that group of people. Incentives to get them to vaccinate is good, earning tax from businesses reopening is good, encouraging unlicensed entertainment that you can't tax is bad.

I agree that people's behaviour had already changed, but if that had already happened then what effect would delaying "freedom day" have had, other than bankruptcy for some nightclubs. The significant changes in restrictions happened several months ago when schools reopened and shops pubs and restaurants reopened. There is no talk about returning to that level of restrictions, just people making nonsense claims about there should have been a delay to the "freedom day" that didn't actually have any real change in restrictions.

bettyoleary · 20-07-2021 10:27pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117638355#Comment_117638355

yes but we didmt all go to public scholl and not give a **** about our grand parents. He is commiting genocide really isnt he.

bettyoleary · 20-07-2021 10:28pm

boris johnson is a psycopath and whats worse he is allowed to get away with it bcos there are millions of others who follow him

Pete_Cavan · 20-07-2021 11:14pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639178#Comment_117639178

If they were so desperate to open nightclubs, they could have done so along with the requirement to be full vaccinated to get in now. There is no logic to waiting until September for that. If it was about incentivising young people to get vaccinated, starting that immediately would have only been beneficial. Instead, it just seems like they realised the unintended consequence after the fact and had to react but had to hold off on making a change so it didn't seem too obvious.

As I said, "Freedom Day" may not have changed much in terms of actual restrictions but it was a huge change in terms of people's psychology. People's behaviour changed as the day approached, as is to be expected. Not making an event out of it and retaining even mask wearing would almost certainly have been accepted by the general public. People would have been happy with a step towards normality but would have kept their guard up. "Freedom Day" allowed people to think they are out of the woods in the run up to it, just while the variant was spreading - not a good idea.

Timberrrrrrrr · 20-07-2021 11:16pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639454#Comment_117639454

Peoples behaviour didn't change though, even now the vast majority of people I see in shops and on public transport are still wearing masks.

robinph · 20-07-2021 11:26pm

The opening nightclubs etc I think was just to shut them and Andrew Lloyd Webber up as they would get progressively more annoying. No real difference to any transmission though as whatever happens in nightclubs would be happening in an abandoned warehouse instead, and the theatre goers are already long double jabbed.

Behaviour had already changed, people who were wearing masks last week are still wearing them this week. "freedom day" was a stupid idea to put in people's heads though.

If what the UK is currently doing doesn't work, then the whole world is screwed for many years to come and the vaccines will have been a failure. Staying with extra restrictions for another X months at this point for the UK would achieve nothing if the vaccines are working, which they certainly seem to be even against Delta.

21-07-2021 4:04am

i agree with many of the recent comments. Vaccinations are reaching their plateau, behaviours had already changed, and it’s the summer. So I am starting to come around to the fact that Boris’ strategy (to the extent that he ever had a ‘strategy’) might be the right one. I found the concept of ‘freedom day’ pretty abhorrent, looking at the numbers, but I’m starting to come around. Get the ‘exit wave’ out of the way before the flu season and then move on. Waiting a month, two months, 6 months, won’t make any difference, given that vaccinations have slowed. So perhaps this is in fact the right time

never before in this pandemic have the words “the next two weeks are crucial” been truer.

Pete_Cavan · 21-07-2021 8:31am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639492#Comment_117639492

It is absolutely not true to say that if what the UK is currently doing doesn't work, the vaccines will have been a failure. The vaccines have worked and are working, as proven by the drop off in serious illness and deaths. There are however large enough numbers of not yet fully vaccinated people leading to not insignificant numbers of serious illness, unnecessarily high hospitalisations and deaths (both directly from Covid and due to hospital shortages). This was entirely preventable. The issue isn't the vaccines, in fact without them things would be a lot worse.

People framing it as a choice between no restrictions at all and full restrictions for months/years are being very disingenuous. Restrictions can and have been reduced everywhere and will continue to reduce and be completely removed as vaccination rates improve. It was never a binary choice between the two extremes of the spectrum, there is scope in between.

brickster69 · 21-07-2021 8:50am

Sounds like Israel are just going to be getting on with it

https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-protection-afforded-by-vaccines-weaker-than-wed-hoped-against-delta/

S.M.B. · 21-07-2021 9:28am

By getting on with it you mean "getting on with further implementation of vaccine passports" to go alongside the vaccinations?

21-07-2021 9:59am

In 2021, everybody has grown accustomed to looking at the world only through their Covid glasses. A single issue that is far more important than anything else.

We don't know the situation in the UK. They were already expecting a big economic hit from Brexit. Maybe they desperately need to get back to normal levels of trading.

robinph · 21-07-2021 10:29am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640023#Comment_117640023

Correct, the vaccines work.

The UK has decided that the tipping point between the benefit of remaining locked down or opening back up with the subsequent rise in cases and deaths that will follow is around about now and that the health services can cope with the rise. Increases are expected, but they are also expected to be manageable, and relatively insignificant compared to the normal limits on the health service from this point forward.

Could totally stay with restrictions for months longer, but for what gain?Economic hit would be massive, but the gains of a handful less deaths and more businesses going under is considered not worth it. Those are the heartless decisions that governments have to make the call on.

BonnieSituation · 21-07-2021 11:20am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117638270#Comment_117638270

Have you ever had to deal with the home office?

PommieBast · 21-07-2021 2:03pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640770#Comment_117640770

Does the passport office and getting a criminal record check certificate count?

Pete_Cavan · 21-07-2021 2:24pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640515#Comment_117640515

Again, I don't see why the choice issimply "remaining locked down or opening back up". Is anywhere on the planet actually locked down right now? Everywhere is largely open but with varying levels of restrictions in place. While everywhere is seeing rises in cases, very few are just going to "tough it out" but instead, make some attempt to limit the spread. Not sure how the UK is going to get those reluctant to take the vaccine on board now that they have effectively told people it's not necessary.

The UK economy is taking a hit due to the hundreds of thousands (over a million yet?) of people expected to isolate due to being a close contact of someone who tested positive. Busineses can't plan in advance for these staff shortages and it is causing lots of problems. Ironically all these people are expected to endure greater restrictions than was the case several months ago, it may only be a temporary isolation but if the virus continues to be prevalent, they may have to do so again (and again).

robinph · 21-07-2021 5:14pm

Where on the scale of restrictions do you think the UK should be at now between where they were in February - March - April - May or July (no changes happened in June in the end)?

What is different between May and July changes that is going to make any significant difference to infection rates? I'm not suggesting that it's an all or nothing choice between restrictions, just that there has been virtually no restrictions since May so unless you are suggesting going back several steps I'm not sure what difference you are expecting to see from Mondays changes. It was a nothing event, just give a silly name to sell some newspapers.

Unless you own a chain of nightclubs, in which case there were major changes for you.

S.M.B. · 21-07-2021 10:07pm

I've noticed a big enough shift in the past few days and I can only see that continuing over the coming few weeks. Different people are going to have different opinions on the knock on effect this could have on their own personal health/wellbeing and that of the larger community. Not talking about changes in going to the supermarket as I agree not a whole lot has changed there.

Government advice still states that "you should limit the close contact you have with those you do not usually live with." and minimise "the number, proximity and duration of social contacts." yet already appointments that I am due to attend have moved away from Zoom and have gone back to face to face. Work is slowly ramping up the pressure for me to run the gauntlet on the tube commute in the coming weeks too.

Freedom Day as a Political stunt may be a massive exaggeration but a bit more has changed than nightclubs and strip clubs opening too.

deeperlearning · 22-07-2021 10:07am

In the UK, supermarket supply chains are now starting to fail as so many workers are isolating due to being a close contact:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/21/pingdemic-means-supermarket-supply-chains-starting-fail/

ACitizenErased · 22-07-2021 1:57pm

https://twitter.com/ukcovid19stats/status/1418161910210510854?s=21

Possibility that Wales infections have peaked, 3 days running now of a dropping 7 day average.

TonyMaloney · 22-07-2021 3:20pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117646559#Comment_117646559

Hopefully. They've been far more sensible than their neighbours.

ongarite · 22-07-2021 3:44pm

Same for Scotland.

if things settle down by next week with England numbers then the gamble will have paid off for Boris.

ACitizenErased · 22-07-2021 4:14pm

First week on week reduction in cases in the UK since May 18th.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1418225835727753222?s=20

MerlinSouthDub · 22-07-2021 4:17pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117647521#Comment_117647521

Great to see. I suppose some risk that the re-opening on Monday will cause them to go up again but it is also possible that they are getting close to herd immunity and the reopening doesn't make much difference.

robinph · 22-07-2021 4:30pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117647253#Comment_117647253

What is the significant difference between England/ Scotland/ Wales that has meant they have allegedly done better?

Most restrictions are identical except in one the say stay 2meters apart, in another they say stay 6ft apart and another 15 daffodils and another 20 grouse. No major difference between the nations restrictions which could be said to have any major effect on the outcomes.

Biggest difference between the nations is population density. After that they are essentially the same.

The UK response - Part II - read OP

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