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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    It must be exactly as you say Retro - keep the EU as an enemy and distract the masses from the unholy agenda they are pursuing.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 50,698 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    Might be nice to explain to the electorate that most of the loyalist opposition to the NI Protocol is being drummed up by drug dealers since the Protocol makes it harder for them to smuggle drugs into NI.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,836 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Also, most people in GB couldn't give a flying fig about NI.....it may as well be South Korea or Vietnam to them. One wonders if this is the vote winner that Johnson and Frost seem to think it is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 66,300 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Maybe he is looking for a Falklands/Las Malvinas moment? Most people in the UK didn't even know they existed until Maggie went all gung ho. Worked for her.



  • Registered Users Posts: 143 ✭✭Cassius99


    I think this might be the answer. In day to day terms the general public don't care about NI and know even less. However there's a substantial cohort of the press and public who get all misty eyed at the notion of "Empire". Playing to the usual suspects about how the EU are using underhand tactics to steal part of the very core of the UK itself will rouse the rabble to a sufficient degree and serve to distract from other issues.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Doubtful. At least with the Falklands, there was a bit of land to fight over.

    With NI, the UK already have it and were the UK to go to war with the EU it would be a trade war rather than a military war. The UK wouldn't have a chance then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 143 ✭✭Cassius99


    But this is the thing. It doesn't have to be a physical war. Or even a trade war. The only thing necessary is to paint the EU as the enemy. This will allow the Tories to stoke the fires about Fortress Britain standing up to and holding their own against the EU much like their forefathers did against the Third Reich in 1940.


    Is it a good plan? No. Is it even a viable long term plan? No. But I think this current administration has moved well beyond long term planning at this point. What it will do is buy them a few weeks or a couple of months. That's all this is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭Debub


    maybe this will help certain posters here understand what the actual situation is and not trust the 'inflexible EU' propaganda :-)



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭fash


    The fact that NI has the "best of both worlds" is a serious problem - as it allows a "compare and contrast" with Brexit GB. There are no upsides to brexit - so a positive comparison is bad.

    Furthermore, UK gov needs ongoing destabilization /a narrative of apparent problems to support a narrative that can be used as a platform to renege on the NIP/threaten to renege in order to win concessions elsewhere. If they were quiet for a few years, it is hard to start a narrative that all of a sudden there are problems.

    For domestic audiences, as you said it also helps to keep the focus on the EU as the enemy and the association then being that the reason for all of the new problems in brexit Britain is the EU rather than brexit itself.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    someone put up a montage video of Boris celebrating and pitching this great deal he had won from the EU.




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭fash


    EU can make a unilateral proportionate response. Aside from that, fines mount daily - and will be eventually paid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭fash


    To an extent it is for EU to decide what is proportionate at first instance and a tribunal to agree it disagree at ultimate instance.

    If they refuse to pay the fines, then the dispute escalates eventually into a trade war where as resolution, the first step required will be to pay those fines plus interest



  • Registered Users Posts: 9 Dessie Bessie


    EU checks on goods going from GB to Northern Ireland account for 20% of those carried out along its entire external border.

    Yet trade from NI to the Republic is less than 0.5% of EU's total.

    The idea that the EU is the only aggrieved partner is fanciful but a compromise will eventually be found on this.Neither side wants to emerge from the Covid wormhole straight into a trade war./



  • Administrators Posts: 53,126 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I really don't get the relevance of these stats and why they are somehow held up as proof the UK is being unfairly treated. They are meaningless.

    There is no other country which is partly in the single market and partly outside it. NI has very significant trade links with GB. It is totally unsurprising to all (except some brexiteers I guess) that this results in a lot of border checks. Nothing here should be new to anyone, but all this fuss the past while coming from the tories / DUP is basically brexit for slow learners.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9 Dessie Bessie


    Actually the EU is being petty and vindictive as it has proved to be on other occasions with countries other than the UK.And it plays straight into Johnson's hands.

    As has been shown with hauliers re-directing traffic to Belfast rather than Dublin because of the new bureaucracy business and companies will always find ways around a bottleneck.

    BUt as I say wiser heads in the EU will find a compromise to avoid a trade war.No-one wants one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    There is no other country which is partly in the single market and partly outside it.

    well there is cyprus i would think



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,341 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Maybe because it's the fúcking ONLY UK LAND BORDER and the ONLY LAND BORDER WITH the EU!



  • Administrators Posts: 53,126 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Petty and vindictive?

    The EU is living by an agreement that was negotiated with Boris Johnson, signed off by Boris Johnson, hailed as "great" by Boris Johnson and also campaigned on by Boris Johnson.

    That Johnson was either too disingenuous with the consequences of HIS deal, or he was genuinely just too stupid to understand them, is not the fault of Brussels.

    The Brits are in denial, a state they've been in for 5 years now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    well I've officially seen the worst history take on the whole NIP


    https://twitter.com/NonDomine/status/1417889871042076683



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9 Dessie Bessie


    Actually there is clearly-defined capacity in the agreement for either side to withdraw from it if it's perceuived the other side isn't acting in good faith.There always are these opts-outs and caveats in agreements like this. The British are merely signalling a warning that they believe the EU is not acting in good faith.Whether you agree with this or not it's always good in situations like this to try to consider all points of view and not just through the prism of a vote that happened five years ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭fash


    Outside Brit tabloids, how is the EU being "petty & vindictive (and remember here that the relevant checks are being carried out by UK customs officials, the UK refused a longer negotiating period claiming 1 year was sufficient despite covid, and refused to allow the offered longer transition periods for NI - while intentionally unilaterally extending the non enforcement border transition to GB to 12 months, plus deliberately fomented loyalist violence and incited loyalist paramilitaries (Frost's threats to renege on the NIP on 12th July being a particularly nice touch), while directing its courtier media to ignore NI politicians and the good news stories from businesses seeing up in NI - to continue to destabilize and "keep the instability simmering")?

    Let's not forget that the UK bans chilled meat imports from Ireland - it is merely that because of their (partly deliberate) failure to implement borders that that is delayed to October.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Your comments regarding hauliers redirecting via Belfast is correct,I live in Birkenhead which is one of the sea routes to Belfast and there has definitely been an increase in wagons at the terminal.

    Having said that, I went to Llandudno earlier this week and the A55 had many Irish registered wagons probably on route to Holyhead which is strange considering trade has supposedly dropped off between the UK and Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,836 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Rep. Richard Neale was on Drivetime a moment ago. He's very firm that the Protocol cannot be renegotiated. He adds that part of the problem is that Brexit itself and the Protocol was sold by the Brexit crowd as being "very easy" to implement - they go ahead with it and then starting raising objections left, right and centre (implying that they have been mostly lying at all stages of the process). He likens it to trying to replay a football match a few days after it has ended.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Below RTÉ article had some interesting commentry on the fascinating/disturbing statistic that UK government are throwing out there about the (supposed!) giant number of NI protocol related goods checks.

    "To emphasise its complaint, London says SPS controls at Northern Ireland ports represent one-fifth of all checks carried out on the EU's external border..."

    "Currently, some 15 EU customs and veterinary staff are on the ground at Northern ports on a rotational basis monitoring the checks and offering guidance. But how extensive is the checking?..."

    The most recent official figures were given to the Northern Ireland Assembly Agriculture Committee on 4 March. Denis McMahon, permanent secretary of the North's department of agriculture (DAERA), told MLAs that between 1 January and 28 February this year, 13,629 documentary checks were done on paperwork accompanying food products (92% of which were products of animal origin). During the same period, there were 11,984 identity checks and 666 physical checks.

    In comparison, the Port of Rotterdam told RTÉ News that it typically carries out 44,000 physical checks per year, a figure which rose to 59,000 after Brexit took effect. There will be more identity checks than physical checks.

    Those Rotterdam checks are carried out by 70 staff operating out of five permanent inspection points for agrifood products, two for fats and oils and one for live animals.

    By contrast, the inspection points in the North are still being done from portacabins since the DUP Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots suspended work on the permanent Border Inspection Posts in February."

    The set of politicians/spads etc running the UK now have a famous history of eh, being somewhat economical with the truth with statistics to advance their agenda.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,126 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I considered all points of view. There is not much to consider.

    The Brits are full of ****. Something they have managed with remarkable consistency. The British public, especially the NI unionist community, were sold a kipper and the panic button is being smashed now that this fact is becoming more and more obvious in the cold light of day.

    ”unreasonable EU” yada yada yada. They were warned what would happen, it’s now happening, “project fear” turned out to be project bang-on-the-fcuking-money. As I said, this recent fuss is just brexit for slow learners.

    P.S. I am a British citizen, born and raised in the UK, in case you think this is some anti-Brit angle I am taking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,517 ✭✭✭axer


    Northern Ireland is perfect for the uk to use. It's about the only thing they have that can be used as somewhat of a bargaining chip (even if misguided). The UK government couldn't care less about NI but they know Ireland/EU do. If it wasn't for NI the EU could just completely ignore the UK and leave them shouting at the sidelines.



  • Registered Users Posts: 66,300 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


     and leave them shouting at the sidelines.


    That seems to me what they are doing. The Protocol doesn't seem to be affecting much physically and there is a sense that almost everyone has moved on.

    There is nothing happening that requires us in the EU to do anything but issue statements in response to the latest bristling and posturing. The weekly 'destabilising' protests in Dublin seem to have stayed a figment of Jamie Bryson's imagination as has the veiled threats of violence.

    Thunder and roar away UK, nobody seems to care much.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,836 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It's almost forgotten that the Brexiteers and the English right wing press were gung ho for a No Deal outcome in autumn 2019. Now they want you to believe a renegotiated Protocol is the thing they favour. They are absolute chancers, making it up as they go along and cannot be trusted.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    And now Dominic Cummings has weighed in on the issue during the course of a typically rambling Twitter discussion that initially focused on Covid - according to him, it was a "very low priority issue", that could be handled now when other higher priorities were solved. A very odd take, given the EU made it one of its three negotiating priorities, and the Tory-DUP deal effectively delayed Brexit from occurring for two years!

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1418255027664207876



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