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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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    #3962
    SmokyMo
    Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    One thing to point out in discussion of buying an asset because if you zoom out to decades, said asset always go up. Yes if you bought it with cash and planning on keeping for decades that's fine.

    However, if you used leverage to buy and your time horizon is less than decades then you can easily end up in big trouble. You cant be looking at decades price action and not able to withstand yearly fluctuations.

    Only couple decades ago rates were double digits...

    Buying a house should be evaluated on case by case... If you happy with the price, can sustain incoming financial stress, happy with location bla bla then go for it.

    Only few people are lucky to figure out if the crash is coming. Most of the time they sound like broken clock until they right, because no one can time it. Thats why they are 'crashes', majority were oblivious. If everyone knew a crash was coming it would have been priced in by then.



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    #3963
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644720#Comment_117644720

    I agree with most what you saying. But there is overestimated impact to Residential Property on interest rates rise, in particular for Ireland.

    The main driver on mortgage amount in Ireland are LTI/LTV limits, not interest rates. If there is inflation and wage increase, the amount of mortgage how much people can get will go up, even if interest rate goes up.



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    #3964
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645460#Comment_117645460

    You also need to remember that a small interest rate rise (Say 0.25%) from such a low base would significantly slow down the economy/Markets and would have the same effect as a 2-3% interest rate rise if the ECB rate was at 5%. When you take this into account it is unlikely that rates will rise to such an extent that it will impact on people buying property. It may impact property prices if institutional investors were no longer charged for deposits in banks as it would put less pressure on them to find an asset to park there cash.



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    #3965
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645317#Comment_117645317

    Purely anecdotal, I know of one school where 21 families have left the country and will not be returning.



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    #3966
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645558#Comment_117645558

    Would not be sure about the impact on interest rates. ECB would not be the first bank to increase rates. FED and in some other countries this has been done already few years ago, don't think institution investors slowed down.



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    #3967
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645722#Comment_117645722

    The FED has never had negative rates and even recently when the money market rates looked to be turning negative they intervened by paying 0.05% for Reverse Repos to provide a floor. The European funds (Pension funds etc) that are being charged negative rates by the banks are parking their cash in other assets as property to avoid paying negative rates where they can. If rates rose even a small bit and they were no longer charged negative rates by the banks then they could leave cash there which would take pressure of the property market.



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    #3968
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,735 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645613#Comment_117645613

    I'm hearing more and more about non-Irish who went home and worked remotely not wanting to come back. Typical story is being unenthusiastic about having to go back to Dublin's dysfunctional accomodation market, and then when they see the chaos such as Ireland's DCC rollout they decide returning is not worth the hassle.



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    #3969
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645817#Comment_117645817

    But still they were very close to 0% before the rise in 2016/2017. I have not seen that in countries with higher interest rates Funds has much of it's assets holding into a Cash. Not sure why there is expectation that there will be any significant asset movement into the cash.



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    #3970
    L1011
    Registered Users Posts: 68,676 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Revolution 1917 - do not post in this thread again. Ever.

    Do not reply to this post.



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    #3971
    flintash
    Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭flintash


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644457#Comment_117644457

    well well well, funny enough you mention white collar workers. i wont say which multinational here in Cork realized that these happy bee workers working from home for over a year now, can continue to work from home , as long as the home is in Poland.

    so here we go, joys of working from home, those lads getting redundancy at the end of it. will see how long it takes other companys to realize that WFH means WorkingFromHungary or Poland. Dont forget the 15% corporation tax drum beaten loudly recently.. But myself, i dont see a crash coming anytime time soon.Good luck hunting for your forever home



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    #3972
    yagan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭yagan


    If we can't talk about negative equity then what's the point discussing property?



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    #3973
    L1011
    Registered Users Posts: 68,676 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117648419#Comment_117648419

    A specific user has been thread-banned after multiple final warnings for posting continually off-topic, rambling, incoherent content. It is not a general ban applying to anything else. But you absolutely should know better than to discuss moderation on thread.

    Do not reply to this post. This applies to everyone. Do not discuss this post. Do not hint at this post. Remember the basic rules of the site you're on for once.



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    #3974
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117642756#Comment_117642756


    That's mostly landlords who are allergic to paying tax, HAP is the floor this is blindly obvious.



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    #3975
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    The government is now delaying publishing their new housing plan until the autumn but assure us it is being worked on right through August. Another nail in the coffin of FF and FG, not treating the housing crisis as an emergency.


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/delay-to-government-housing-plan-seen-as-setback-1.4627800




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    #3976
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639308#Comment_117639308

    Someone wrote in by way of reply to Des Gilroy, to argue against the points made in support of having small landlords in the market - probably fair enough points that less landlords does not necessarily mean less supply as those landlords either sell to other landlords or else to individual buyers. In addition, the points about it being easier to regulate a few bigger players than a lot of small fish. These letters are public I think so it should be okay to copy and paste them.

    Sir, – I have no evidence beyond anecdotal to question the survey results reported by the Residential Tenancies Board and cited by Des Gilroy in these pages (Letters, July 20th). I do have reason, however, to question Mr Gilroy’s conclusions therefrom.


    Mr Gilroy says it is a bad thing that small landlords are “being forced out” of the residential tenancy market, because this will lower the supply of residential properties, particularly those at affordable rents. This is an argument one often hears against State interventions in the rental market.


    What matters is not the supply of landlords, but the supply of housing. When a small landlord “leaves the market”, they do not tear down the houses they thus far have rented out – they sell them, either to an owner-occupier or to another landlord. Thus, they are extremely well-compensated for “leaving” the rental market.


    Likewise, it seems unlikely that a landlord with fewer than five properties is responsible for the construction of any new housing supply. More likely, these are investors competing with would-be owner occupiers for existing housing stock, or refusing to sell on property they have inherited or purchased for themselves in circumstances that no longer suit them to live in the property (the so-called “accidental landlord”). It is not clear that more people getting “in on the act” of extracting rents from our broken market increases housing supply. If anything, it probably makes it harder to regulate the rental market, because there is a larger constituency of actors to deal with.


    As for whether a small landlord is more likely to accept a lower return on their investment than a corporate landlord, this might be true – or the economies of scale and distribution of risk associated with large rental portfolios might militate the other way. If there is evidence that smaller landlords systematically charge lower rents (controlling for factors like size, quality and location of the property), that would be very welcome, and Mr Gilroy should present it.



    But the mere fact that 72 per cent of rental properties are currently owned by landlords with fewer than five properties does not mean that if those landlords did not exist, neither would the houses. Given the extraordinary demand for housing, it is more likely they would be owner-occupied, or owned by a larger landlord.


    It is by no means obvious that in such circumstances they would be less expensive to rent. There might be other reasons to dislike large landlords (related to the concentration of power and wealth in society), but these are not relied on by Mr Gilroy.


    Mr Gilroy is correct that the country faces a supply problem (although given the number of vacant housing units, this might be overstated). But that is a shortage of housing, not of landlords. If the small landlords whose interests he champions are going to build more housing and charge lower rents, then by all means we should encourage them to do so. But more “suppliers” does not necessarily equal more “supply” unless those small landlords are going to build, or finance the building of, housing that would not otherwise exist.


    There might be more effective ways for the State to secure more supply at lower rents, like rent control and large-scale public housing development. These interventions may well make it less attractive to be a small (and indeed large) landlord – but much better to be a tenant. – Yours, etc,

    ALAN EUSTACE,

    Marino.



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    #3977
    Flinty997
    Registered Users Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117648610#Comment_117648610


    On the one hand the claim is HAP is a cash cow for landlords. The other claim is Landlords don't want the cash cow because not paying tax is better, when HAP has much higher tax reliefs. You'll have to make your mind up is HAP golden egg or a poisoned chalice.

    The only downside for small landlords leaving the market and being replaced by large landlords and companies. Is the latter have tended to avoid the affordable end of the market and focus where the profits are higher. So further shrinking the supply of "affordable" housing.

    The issue is not HAP. It's a symptom. The issue is supply and demand. It's also supply and demand in social and affordable housing. If the supply is mostly at the top end, that hurts supply at the lower end.

    At the same time we are still growing our population.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/376895/population-growth-in-ireland/



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    #3978
    Flinty997
    Registered Users Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117649081#Comment_117649081


    The rental market has pretty much got everything is has asked for the last couple of decades. Including institutional landlords replacing smaller landlords. There's no going back now. Be interesting to see how it all works out.



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    #3979
    Flinty997
    Registered Users Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117648750#Comment_117648750


    Well there's the source of the problem.



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    #3980
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117649405#Comment_117649405

    I wonder how the REITS will get supplying houses in rural areas.

    I think they probably arent interested in anything other than apartments and housing estates in large towns.

    So anyoone wanting to rent in a rural area might be out of luck once legislation finally finishes off its job and forces out the last of the small landlords.



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    #3981
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Stunning, literally the dream home. Though I wonder about coastal erosion.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-pebble-beach-upper-curragh-ardmore-co-waterford/3416308?utm_source=TheJournal&utm_medium=Property&utm_campaign=Property%21-%21Magazine%21-%21Jul%204

    Separately, Apartment 56, The Hibernian, Gasworks, Dublin 4. PPR price in 2013 of €245000, asking price now of €485000. Some mark-up for a tiny, pokey 2-bed.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-apartment-56-the-hibernian-the-gasworks-dublin-4/3462730?utm_source=TheJournal&utm_medium=Property&utm_campaign=Property%21-%21Magazine%21-%21Jul%204



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    #3982
    Flinty997
    Registered Users Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117650444#Comment_117650444

    Well I don't think all small landlords will leave.

    Rural areas are generally much cheaper, so less of an issue I would hope.



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    #3983
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651099#Comment_117651099

    From experience, most rural areas are really struggling with lack of rental properties.

    Most have sold up to owner-occupiers, or for use as holiday homes/airbnbs. Nothing has been built in the last 10 years in most of "rural Ireland" - so aside from few areas with no amenities or shops (actually rural), populations are mostly stagnant or growing, yet no new properties have come available



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    #3984
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117650731#Comment_117650731

    So you are comparing the prices of a property sold at the low point of the last recession, and today, I doubt many are surprised that there is a significant differences in prices.



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    #3985
    growleaves
    Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643447#Comment_117643447

    Can you expand on this a little?

    What is impractical about the apartments in Grand Canal Dock? By sterile do you mean the design?

    What is an example of a good new apartment build in Dublin city in your estimation?

    Sorry to quiz you. I'd appreciate you (and others) giving your opinions if you want to.



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    #3986
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    My friend has to leave his rented apartment in The Cubes Beacon South Quarter Sandyford, the landlord wants to sell up because he's "afraid of a crash"



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    #3987
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651175#Comment_117651175

    Sure, I was actually casually looking at apartments for rent in Dublin this morning, just to see what is out there and what prices they are asking.



    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-fitzwilliam-quay-apartments-ringsend-dublin-4/3473136

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-windmill-lane-apartments-dublin-2/3472369

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-the-clayton-the-gasworks-dublin-4/3465240


    There's 3 to make my point, around €1.9-2.3k pm each with the sterile, pokey features being the following;

    Literally the shape of a shoe box; little natural light; cramped kitchen with little free counter space; (likely) no storage room; living room/dining table space impractical for a small family let alone even hosting a dinner for family/friends.

    The new builds that I would be talking about are of course "new" so built to an exceptionally high standard with modern fixtures fitting, plumbing, insulation, storage and even apartment block amenities. My two points are (1) I would completely disagree that they are "sterile" objectively and (2) relative to the older apartments around the Docks (which is probably one of the most densely packed collection of apartment blocks in the City) which I feel are just very poor apartments generally (unless you were maybe mid-20s, just starting a job and sharing with a friend).

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-2-bedroom-apartment-mount-argus-apartments-mount-argus-road-harolds-cross-dublin-6w/2534220

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-2-bed-knockrabo-mount-anville-road-goatstown-dublin-14/2621606

    Post edited by Amadan Dubh on


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    #3988
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651155#Comment_117651155

    Is there a good reason for the massive price increase? The argument I would make to explain the sensational increase in price is the significant increase in immigration since then, government measures to inflate the rental market, muted supply and covid-restrictions-induced frenzied/desperation buying. The ad makes no mention of renovation being made to the apartment and I can't see a significant enough increase in mortgage lending limits or salaries to pay the higher price.



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    #3989
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651436#Comment_117651436

    Yes there is, in 2013 property was at its lowest, the recession was at its nadir in 2012, few people were buying, there was an excess of properties for sale. Today there is a dearth of properties for sale, more people wanting to buy etc. This apartment is close to the city centre, close to MNs which are big employers which weren't there in 2013, certainly not in their current form. So I am wondering, why is the price increase on a property between 2013 and 2021 a surprise to you.



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    #3990
    spalpeen
    Registered Users Posts: 140 ✭✭spalpeen


    Any thoughts on prospects of portmarnock as an area to buy in?



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    #3991
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651959#Comment_117651959

    Friend lives there, it's amazing. The southside without the snobbery.

    Just a couple of things.

    Last population estimate was in April 2020

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

    Last census was 2016.

    There seems to be an abundance of apartments for rent. This thread and Sunday business post have highlighted the many empty apartments complexes around Dublin with significant supply being released soon e.g. Chapelizod.

    https://planning.agileapplications.ie/dublincity/application-details/136906

    71 apartments just down the road from empty Clancy quay.

    I would question that there is a housing shortage at all in Dublin but rather a shortage of houses where southsiders want them. Case in point, crazyhouseprice guy. Why doesn't he shut up and just buy a house in ballyfermot? One of the last times I was in the playground there, I was talking to a nuclear physicist who was staying with her daughter. Lots of nice people.

    The problem is that southsiders expect to live in blackrock beside mammy and daddy and are upset when they can't afford it.

    Finally, the idea that you only make a loss on a house when you sell is daft unless you are a cash buyer and even then... Our neighbour paid nearly twice what we paid for our house. In fairness, they were on a tracker versus the horrid variable rate we pay but still they are likely paying significantly higher mortgage payments every month which affects what they can do in life.

    Post edited by mcsean2163 on


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